**Introduction**
Today, attention is focused on the necessity of achieving a low-carbon future, a goal that requires an integration of a range of complex solutions in the areas of land use, energy, and food production. In the face of accelerating climate changes and rising demand for natural resources, the discussion on how to reconcile the multiple land uses for human and environmental needs has become more urgent than ever. This article highlights a new study conducted by a group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Shell, addressing the challenges associated with competition for land use and ensuring the achievement of climate goals, particularly in the context of biodiversity conservation and food and energy production. The article will review the potential benefits of effective regulatory policies and innovative strategies necessary to reach the required balance, paving the way toward a sustainable future in which human needs can be addressed without neglecting responsibility toward the environment.
Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Future
The transition to a low-carbon future represents a significant challenge that requires a comprehensive effort combining emission-reducing technologies from economic activities and sustainable land use to meet diverse needs, from food production to energy production and nature conservation to broader ecosystem services. In this context, we will analyze how the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework is used to understand land use competition in a climate stabilization scenario at 1.5 degrees Celsius, where the demand for bioenergy and natural sinks rises in parallel with the pressure for sustainable agriculture and food production.
Recent studies have addressed the critical role of the land sector in achieving low emissions targets, attributed to the ability of land-based processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Available options include energy crops, reforestation, and nature-based solutions (NBS). These elements are not merely alternatives but represent complex interactions requiring a deep understanding of land trade and use and their impacts on food security and broader environmental systems.
Challenges and Opportunities in Land Use
The main challenges in land use lie in how to balance the requirements for food, energy, and the conservation of natural systems. Estimates suggest that the area of arable land must increase by about 165 million hectares to ensure food and material supplies by 2050, while achieving more ambitious targets may require an additional area of up to 325 million hectares. This expansion reflects the growing pressure on land, while potential declines in crop productivity due to climate change could exacerbate the situation.
For example, bioenergy represents an important option, but it requires the allocation of vast land areas. Studies indicate that the expected needs could range from 80 to over 500 million hectares by 2100, depending on the extent to which solutions like BECCS are adopted. This makes balancing the necessary demands for food and energy with nature rehabilitation challenging.
Nature-Based Solutions and Food Security
Nature-based solutions (NBS) represent an effective tool for balancing competing land uses. Research indicates that proper land management could contribute to increased carbon emission reductions, aiding the achievement of global climate change mitigation goals. However, achieving this requires radical changes in agricultural practices and regulatory policies.
With effective management, approximately 2.5 to 3.5 billion hectares of land can be attracted to NBS practices that contribute to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by up to 3-6 gigatons annually. This underscores the need for innovative strategies that integrate land use for agricultural production with the provision of natural sinks.
Policies and Strategies Needed to Achieve Goals
Many countries and organizations seek to adopt effective policies that encourage smart land management, contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals. There must be long-term commitments from decision-makers within governments and various industries to successfully implement these strategies.
Scientific discussions emphasize the necessity for policies to be integrated and require interaction among different economic and social sectors. For example, agricultural policies can be developed in line with renewable energy strategies to enhance land productivity, reduce competition between different land uses, thereby improving environmental quality and achieving levels of food security.
Results and Recommendations of the Study
The results derived from the land use study in climate stability scenarios indicate the need for complex decisions regarding the best use of land in various locations. Models such as the MIT IGSM should be adopted to understand how to coordinate different land uses to achieve environmental and social goals.
Studies show that the available options and proactive approaches to dealing with climate change require flexible and adaptable strategies, helping to achieve better outcomes. Policymakers and the international community must collaborate and focus on strategies based on scientific principles to guide sustainable land use decisions.
Rapid Changes and Needs to Achieve Climate Stability Goals
In light of the challenges faced by the world due to climate change, the need for rapid and radical changes has become more urgent than ever. Estimates suggest that current efforts are insufficient to achieve the announced climate stability goals, which aim to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. These goals are vital for creating an ecosystem capable of supporting life on Earth. It is essential to enhance international collective action and develop policies that effectively meet these challenges. This need extends to regulating land use, reflecting the urgent necessity to reconsider how natural resources are managed.
Responding to climate change requires comprehensive changes in societies and economies. Agricultural policies, for example, must include new technologies aimed at increasing productivity while reducing emissions. There should also be a focus on nature-based solutions, which are effective in mitigating the impacts of climate change, such as reforestation and sustainable land management. These approaches improve ecosystem health and reduce harmful emissions by maintaining natural balance.
Such solutions achieve a significant positive impact on the environment and contribute to enhancing agricultural productivity. Governments must develop strategies to encourage investments in climate change mitigation projects, ranging from renewable energy to improved farming methods. Supporting research and innovation in this field is particularly important to avoid future crises. There is no doubt that cooperation between nations and various entities will play a pivotal role in the success of these efforts.
Current Global Land Use and Related Emissions
Land covers about 15 billion hectares of the Earth’s surface, of which 10.4 billion hectares are habitable land, divided into various categories including agriculture, forests, and urban areas. Analyzing the distribution of these uses shows an increasing interest in utilizing land for agricultural purposes, although this comes with significant environmental challenges. Based on 2019 data, we find that the area allocated for food production includes 3.7 billion hectares dedicated to livestock and 1.1 billion hectares for crops, despite the fact that the area for crop production does not exceed one-third of the area used for livestock.
The land allocated for agriculture makes significant contributions to the world’s calorie and protein supplies, as crops provide 82% of calories and 61% of global protein supply. This analysis is crucial for understanding how land use choices affect global food security. Sustainable agricultural practices require land use in ways that ensure environmental preservation while meeting the growing needs of the population.
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data that land use for energy production is not classified under traditional usage categories, therefore it should be estimated using different methods. Estimates indicate that energy production from wind and solar sources requires large areas of land, but most of this land can also be used for other purposes, such as agriculture. The future growth of renewable energy production relies on improving energy conversion efficiency and increasing the area of land used.
Emissions from Land Use and Future Challenges
Estimates suggest that emissions from land use and associated changes are characterized by high uncertainty and significant annual variations. IPCC data estimate the average global emissions from land use between 5.9 and 4.1 gigatons of CO2 annually. In recent years, emissions from land use changes have started to decline, but this trend still needs support and the enhancement of policies that promote sustainability.
Emissions from land use are considered one of the key factors contributing to rising global temperatures. Solutions lie in improving strategies responsible for natural resource management and rethinking how land is used. Various methods exist to achieve these goals, including sustainable resource management, smart agriculture, and reforestation strategies. Focusing on radical solutions helps shift land use from a source of emissions to a carbon sink, which requires international cooperation and coordination among government and non-government entities.
Governments continue to seek ways to reduce emissions, relying on renewable energy technologies to replace traditional energy systems. Natural methods are part of the solution, as they have the potential to improve ecosystem health and ensure food supplies. To achieve positive results, it is essential to promote collective learning and knowledge exchange among different countries, as success in this area requires collaboration and coordination among all stakeholders.
Challenges in Increasing Registration Rates in Reforestation Projects
Registering land in reforestation projects is one of the main challenges facing the achievement of global climate goals. As the number of barriers to overcome increases, the pace of reaching maximum registration speeds, typically expressed as the number of hectares registered annually, slows down. Determining these maximum speeds relies on a mix of experience gained from previous studies compared to historical registration rates of ambitious reforestation projects, such as the national forest expansion in the United States in the 1930s and large-scale reforestation campaigns in China in recent years. These rates are also verified by comparing current ambitions, such as the UK’s carbon-neutral ambitions. Forecasts indicate that human emissions from land use will shift from a net source of 4 gigatons of carbon dioxide annually today to a net sink reaching -6.1 gigatons by 2050.
It is also essential to indicate that emissions from human land use between 2023 and 2100 in the “Sky 2050” scenario could reach -312 gigatons of carbon. The latter part of the calculations depends on current literature to distribute carbon dioxide removal rates and avoid emissions based on time and area units. This data is used to estimate the temporal impact of various activities on mitigating climate change. For example, one hectare of avoided deforestation generates all emission reduction benefits in the time during which the area is protected, while reductions from reforestation follow a logarithmic distribution starting from the year trees are planted.
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The research indicates that these temporal models generalize across multiple countries or climate regions, showing that reforestation in tropical areas may peak in carbon capture rates within 6 years, while temperate or high-latitude regions may take more than 10 years after planting seedlings. Additionally, forests in different regions may reach equilibrium and restrict additional carbon capture over varying time periods, highlighting the importance of time in carbon cycles.
Economic Analysis and Policy Model: EPPA
The Economic Policy and Analysis Model (EPPA) has been used to assess competition for land use among different categories. EPPA is a dynamic multi-sector and regional model of the global economy aiming to develop forecasts for economic growth, energy transitions, and emissions resulting from human activity of greenhouse gases. Land use changes in EPPA are determined by transitions among five main land categories: agricultural land, pastures, managed forests, natural grasslands, and natural forests. The models consider the costs of transition and associated emissions, in addition to maintaining complementary physical accounts of land, reflecting the complexity related to changes in land use.
Historical data on conversion rates to agriculture in response to land availability is used, where land can transition from less intensive uses (such as moving from agricultural land to pastures or forests) or may be abandoned entirely and revert to natural land if investment in managed lands is not maintained. The EPPA model also includes direct and indirect emissions associated with land use changes, providing a comprehensive measure of the effects of land use on climate.
When considering future projections in the EPPA model, the analysis relies on economic decisions centered around saving, investment, and productivity improvements across various sectors of the economy. This leads to changes in demand for goods and services due to economic growth and international trade, as well as the depletion of natural resources. The policies imposed in EPPA reflect the need to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the model works to predict possible future scenarios based on current global commitments to sustainable resource management.
Global Land Use Changes (1700-2100)
Global land use exhibited notable stability among broad categories before the industrial revolution. However, changes in land use from natural vegetation to pastures and agricultural lands accelerated in the mid-19th century. Data indicates that 1.08 billion hectares of natural forests and natural grasslands that existed in 1800 became agricultural areas by 1900, and this number rose to 3.41 billion hectares by 2000. Recent analyses have determined that most shifts in land use have experienced significant declines in the last fifty years, reflecting substantial changes in economic and social patterns.
Achieving high sustainability rates requires halting historical trends of deforestation and shifting towards forest restoration and more efficient pasture management. This closely relates to the necessity of increasing areas used for renewable energy. Although projects to increase agricultural productivity may reduce the total amount of land allocated for agriculture, responding to the increased demand for food remains critical to keeping pace with population growth. Estimates suggest that even with productivity improvements, a slight increase in agricultural land area will still be necessary to continue meeting future demand.
The greatest challenge lies in the differing classifications of land use among databases. There are significant discrepancies between databases due to different classifications of land use types, making accurate comparisons difficult. In the analysis, data from various sources such as the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) and geographical barrier analyses have been combined to ensure accurate comparisons among different land uses. This helps avoid errors that may arise from inconsistencies in the criteria used to classify land uses, enabling more accurate assessments of expected changes in land use in the future.
Trends
General Historical Trends and the Use of Nature-Based Solutions
General historical trends across most databases and representations indicate that nature-based solutions represent an effective tool for achieving emissions reduction goals. In a scenario where temperature stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, there are significant opportunities to scale these solutions widely. For example, Figure 3 shows the forecasts related to the annual adoption of nature-based solution units until 2050. The prominent options in this context include agricultural landscapes, including sustainable agricultural practices aimed at reducing emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in the soil, along with improved pasture management. These practices are expected to experience notable growth after 2023, with peak rates exceeding 50 million hectares annually by 2040. Forest protection will also see a significant increase, with peak deployment rates reaching 21 million hectares by the 2040s, before declining in the following years.
Agricultural production systems and renewable energy are under competitive pressure, as a balance must be struck between land use for these activities and the area designated for nature-based solutions. It is expected that nature-based solution practices will cover more than 60% of total agricultural land by the end of the current century. This shift is considered essential to ensure that the required environmental goals are achieved, as well as to meet the growing food needs of the population.
Land Use Balance Between Nature-Based Solutions and Food Production
According to the Sky 2050 scenario forecasts, a large area of sustainable land will be utilized for nature-based solutions, contributing to the provision of the required food resources. Figure 4 illustrates how these competing uses are balanced, as it is anticipated that land designated for forest production will expand across various categories. Despite the increase in these uses, food production is expected to rise by approximately 213% by 2100, negating the notion that the use of nature-based solutions will negatively affect agricultural productivity.
The agriculture sector will undergo a radical transformation by 2100, necessitating the implementation of new agricultural practices that support the environment and mitigate emissions. For example, biofuel production could exceed 286 million hectares by the end of the century, necessitating the adoption of innovative and effective agricultural practices to meet energy needs sustainably. It will be essential for efforts to continue in parallel with maintaining a clean and healthy environment.
Land Dedicated to Renewable Energy and Future Growth
Forecasts in Table 2 indicate that land allocated for renewable energy such as solar and wind power will see significant growth by 2050. The use of land dedicated to bioenergy is expected to increase substantially, rising from 100 million hectares in 2020 to 242 million hectares by mid-century, with further growth to 286 million hectares by 2100. This increase is essential to ensure the achievement of sustainable energy goals and to reduce harmful gas emissions.
These transformations depend on legislation and policies that support innovation and investment in clean energy sources, and they require policymakers to address related social and environmental issues. The main challenge lies in how to achieve concurrent development between economic growth and environmental preservation in a world experiencing rising consumption and energy rates.
Carbon Storage and Contributions of Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions contribute significantly to carbon storage, underscoring the importance of forest protection and sustainable land management. Data indicates that opportunities for nature-based solutions can contribute to the sequestration of vast amounts of carbon, with forests being the primary source of these contributions. Achieving this goal requires collaboration between various stakeholders to enhance forest protection and improve the management of natural resources.
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Urgent call to expand the use of nature-based solutions in various agricultural activities and to preserve natural environments. This approach can contribute to increasing agricultural productivity while reducing emissions, thus achieving the necessary balance between economic growth and environmental protection. These steps are essential to ensure the achievement of the agreed global climate goals.
Carbon Emission Projections and Natural Improvement Methods
With the increasing awareness of climate change, there is an urgent need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to achieve global climate goals. Projections indicate that by mid-century, nature-based solutions (NBS) in forests could contribute to reducing emissions by approximately 3.7 gigatons of CO2 annually. However, these emissions are expected to decline afterward due to the maturation of reforested areas, reducing the forests’ capacity to absorb carbon. Conversely, NBS in agricultural activities is the second-largest source for achieving CO2 reduction, as it could enhance the ability to absorb about 2 gigatons of CO2 annually for decades to come. This reflects the importance of sustainable agriculture and agricultural innovations such as the use of biochar, which represents an effective tool for carbon absorption. Additionally, effective grazing systems and regenerative agriculture should play a role in achieving positive outcomes, even though they may face challenges due to soil saturation with carbon over time.
Land Use Challenges and Regional Distribution
Although total land use can meet the increasing demands resulting from climate goals, there are significant challenges at the regional level. In the United States, it is estimated that 88% of land designated for grazing will be used for NBS activities by 2100, raising questions about how different uses will be distributed. In Europe, the use of land for wind and solar energy faces larger challenges, as it requires 74% of the remaining land, which may cause conflicts with urban areas. On the other hand, China and India are facing new pressures regarding land use, where achieving climate goals could require using 80% of the currently available land in these two countries. The findings indicate that Brazil is the only country experiencing moderate conditions in land use pressures, but there are still questions about the possibility of improving natural uses and achieving sustainability.
Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve Climate Goals
Implementing a comprehensive strategy to stabilize the climate at 1.5 degrees Celsius requires radical changes in policies, consumption patterns, and land management. The presence of nature-based solutions, such as tree planting and the use of renewable land, is essential, but these practices must also be integrated with food production and renewable energy requirements. Models developed suggest that 3.5 million hectares of land could be sufficient to achieve the goal of reducing 6 gigatons of CO2 annually. It is important to explore the balance between biodiversity and resource protection while improving agricultural production. Results indicate that adopting regenerative agricultural practices could enhance food security while reducing negative environmental impacts during the period from 2020 to 2100.
Future Trends and Innovations in Land Management
Despite the progress made so far in nature-based solutions, there is an urgent need to explore more innovations. Scientists believe that research should be expanded to include other methods such as improving aquaculture management or protecting soil from erosion. There is also a growing interest in carbon emission control technologies, such as carbon capture and storage. However, it should be understood that engineering solutions do not replace the need for ongoing efforts to reduce emissions. Emphasizing this direction, studies highlight the importance of organizing land use efforts to ensure that agricultural activities do not conflict with greenhouse gas emissions reduction, necessitating the use of effective indicators to monitor the required developments.
The Balance
Between Land Management and Renewable Energy Uses
Sustainable land management options and renewable energy production are among the most important topics that need to be addressed accurately. Studies based on global models have shown that it is possible to allocate between 2.5 to 3.5 billion hectares of land for the application of sustainable land management practices (NBS), which enhances the ability to sequester carbon and provide renewable energy. These practices rely on the protection, management, and restoration of land, aiming to achieve a balance between human needs and what nature requires. For example, these practices could potentially provide from 3 to 6 billion tons of carbon emissions reductions annually, in addition to generating between 325 to 650 exajoules per year of renewable energy, including approximately 0.2 to 0.35 billion hectares for solar and wind energy.
The challenge lies in how to manage this land in balance between agricultural production and renewable energy. For instance, if NBS practices are widely adopted by farmers by the mid-century, they must improve agricultural productivity to avoid impacting food supplies. Therefore, collaboration between governments, farmers, and local communities is vital to achieving this goal.
Effective Trends in Land Management and Social Equity
The success of implementing sustainable land management practices requires active participation from local communities, especially in areas where farmers own the land. It is important to invest efforts in providing education and awareness about the advantages of these practices. Moreover, the rights of indigenous communities must be included in any land management strategy. Often, these rights are not officially recognized, which creates challenges in implementing sustainable practices.
Additionally, consideration should be given to how to shape incentives to increase the adoption of these practices, as incentives must be designed in a way that promotes equity. One way to enhance social equity is to ensure the participation of local communities in decision-making and equitable distribution of resources. This also includes providing support and guidance to small-scale farmers to encourage them to improve their sustainable agricultural practices.
Policies Needed to Support Sustainable Land Management
To achieve climate sustainability goals, it is essential to have clear policies that contribute to the pricing of carbon and land emissions. These policies should include coverage of the land sector within existing emissions policies, in addition to establishing independent markets for carbon offsetting. This could help achieve environmental goals without impacting agricultural production estimates.
Achieving these goals requires broad consensus among all stakeholders, including local authorities, communities, and academia. For example, experiences from existing markets can be leveraged to help us understand the best methods for successfully implementing these policies, contributing to the integration of environmental and social dimensions in development plans.
Future Challenges and Land Management Strategies
Climate policies face several challenges in the future, including population growth, increased demand for land, climate change, and economic costs. These factors have significant impacts on land governance and usage. Potential competition among various agricultural uses requires a quick and innovative response from policymakers to address the community’s environmental and economic needs.
It is important to conduct comprehensive studies at the regional and local levels to understand strengths and weaknesses, as well as available opportunities and challenges. These studies will help develop comprehensive land management strategies to effectively meet community needs. It is also crucial to enhance coordination among various sectors to achieve sustainable investments that support human and environmental development.
Change
Climate Change and Food Security Challenges
The issues of climate change are among the most significant challenges facing the world today, as they cause significant changes in weather patterns and climate systems, directly affecting agricultural production and food security. Studies indicate that changes in climate may lead to a decrease in the production of key crops such as rice and wheat, which puts the most vulnerable sectors of society at risk. It is crucial to work on developing effective solutions to address these challenges, such as improving agricultural methods and adopting food sustainability strategies.
While some countries are experiencing increased agricultural production due to shifts in climate patterns, others face greater risks from disrupted rainfall or flooding. This requires the concerted efforts of the international community to set effective policies aimed at achieving food security on a sustainable basis, such as enhancing research and development in sustainable agriculture and utilizing modern technology to improve crop yields.
The Role of Renewable Energy in Mitigating Climate Change Effects
Renewable energy is considered one of the prominent solutions to combat the risks of climate change, as it helps reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainability. The world is increasingly turning toward using clean energy sources such as solar and wind, which provide non-polluting energy and preserve the environment. The adoption of renewable energy is an urgent necessity, as reliance on fossil fuels exacerbates the risks of climate change. Transitioning to renewable energy can reduce the economic vulnerabilities of agricultural crops from the impacts of rising temperatures, contributing to food security.
Investments in renewable energy are an attractive option for many countries, as they help create new job opportunities and enhance economic growth. Moreover, renewable energy provides a practical solution to reduce poverty by improving access to energy in remote areas, which increases agricultural productivity and enhances profitability through better utilization of available resources.
Research and Innovations in Sustainable Agriculture
Research and innovations in sustainable agriculture are crucial factors for improving food security in the face of climate change. Modern technologies, such as precision agriculture and genetic crop planting, hold great potential for increasing agricultural productivity and reducing waste. By utilizing technology such as weather and soil data analysis, farmers can make informed decisions that increase crop yields and determine the optimal techniques for each type of crop.
For example, updated varieties of drought-resistant crops have been developed, helping farmers maintain production even in severe drought conditions. Research institutions are also working on developing innovative agricultural systems aimed at reducing water and pesticide use through techniques such as organic farming and mixed cropping.
These innovations emphasize the importance of collaboration between governments, the private sector, and research centers to fund research and implement effective solutions on a large scale. This can contribute to advancing sustainable agriculture and ensuring food production meets the growing needs of populations in an ever-changing world.
Activating Legal Frameworks and Public Policies to Address Climate Change
Activating legal frameworks and public policies is a vital part of efforts to combat climate change. Policies should be based on sound scientific foundations and rely on modern research to ensure the desired outcomes are achieved. Coordination between local and international governments is necessary to create a conducive environment for applying sustainable and innovative strategies.
Effective policies include encouraging investment in clean technology and stimulating the use of renewable energy. This may also require providing incentives for farmers and investors to engage in sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to benefits for all parties. Additionally, developing initiatives such as “relying on natural solutions for climate” is part of these efforts, as initiatives focus on improving the sustainability of ecosystems and preserving biodiversity.
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The end requires constructive and comprehensive cooperation from all stakeholders, ensuring that policies are flexible and adaptable to future climate changes. To achieve this, strategies that support the most affected groups and work towards social justice and collective action to effectively tackle these global challenges must be adopted.
Land Use Challenges in the Face of Climate Change
Land is a critical factor in efforts to reduce carbon emissions and achieve sustainable development. Addressing climate change requires a radical transformation in how land is used, especially in light of global goals to limit the increase in Earth’s temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The world faces significant challenges related to competition for land use among agriculture, renewable energy, and environmental conservation. Achieving effective solutions requires strategic planning, aiming to balance various needs. Leaders and planners must understand these dynamics to manage effective land use, taking into account the impacts of climate change on food production and food security.
Recent studies indicate a pressing need to increase the area of arable land by 165 million hectares to ensure food needs are met by 2050. However, this area could potentially double with the rising challenges associated with population growth and changing consumption habits. Returning to the use of abandoned lands and smart agricultural techniques can contribute to better land management, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change and increasing soil fertility. For example, restoring abandoned agricultural land can provide a habitat for new plants, aiding in biodiversity enhancement.
Opportunities for Renewable Energy and Its Role in Sustainable Land Use
Renewable energy is a fundamental part of global strategies to reduce carbon emissions. With the growing need for renewable energy sources, competition arises for land areas used for solar and wind energy production. Estimates suggest that solar energy could require anywhere from 80 to over 500 million hectares of land to meet the world’s energy needs by 2100, necessitating careful planning and effective management strategies to balance the exploitation of natural resources and environmental protection.
The application of renewable energy also helps mitigate the impacts of climate change by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. For instance, narrow lands that could not previously be used for agriculture can be utilized to establish renewable energy plants. Governments must commit to developing policies that support investment in these areas, facilitating the expansion of clean energy use. Designs such as vertical farms can utilize urban spaces effectively, reducing land use and increasing food energy production. In this context, many countries are enhancing public-private cooperation to present innovative projects that combine energy and food.
Balancing Food Security and Environmental Conservation
Food security and environmental conservation issues are closely intertwined. Significant efforts to reduce carbon emissions require a delicate balance between food production and ecosystem protection. Research indicates that supporting sustainable agriculture will correct traditional food production pathways, resulting in better outcomes for the environment. Techniques such as organic farming or precision agriculture contribute not only to increased production but also to improved soil fertility and reduced use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers.
It is essential to consider agricultural innovations that enhance food production while maintaining healthy ecosystems. Strategically allocating natural resources ensures the achievement of food security while preserving biodiversity. Laws and policies that stimulate the use of sustainable lands can play an effective role in preventing land degradation and climate change. Experiences from countries like the Netherlands have proven effective in adopting sustainable agricultural practices that balance environmental conservation and increased agricultural production.
The Importance
Nature-Based Solutions to Climate Challenges
Nature-based solutions play a vital role in mitigating the impacts of climate change. These solutions include restoring ecosystems, reforestation, and forest conservation, all of which significantly contribute to carbon absorption from the atmosphere. Plans that aim to enhance biodiversity and improve ecosystem quality are part of climate change mitigation strategies, as their effectiveness in achieving positive outcomes for both the environment and communities is recognized.
Nature-based solutions enhance the capacity of local communities to adapt to climate changes by fostering patterns of collaboration and cooperation among individuals. Examples include community participation in reforestation efforts, which help create new job opportunities and enhance food security. Such initiatives demonstrate how environmental efforts can integrate with social and economic development needs. Projects like Kamtopia in indigenous forests serve as a living example of successful comprehensive implementation of these solutions, reflecting local culture and strengthening collective identity.
Current Land Use Worldwide and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Land comprises approximately 15 billion hectares of the Earth’s surface, distributed between habitable land, ice sheets, and arid regions. Estimates of land distribution vary by sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicating a lack of consensus on classifications of use. Data show that 10.4 billion hectares of habitable land are primarily used in five categories, two of which are related to agriculture (crops and livestock) and three associated with other uses (forests, wooded lands, and urban areas).
According to the data, animal production occupies about 3.7 billion hectares, while other agricultural lands use 1.1 billion hectares. However, in comparison, crops significantly contribute to providing calories and proteins relative to the area designated for livestock production, with crops accounting for 82% of total calories and 61% of total global protein supply. Forests and wooded lands occupy approximately 4.0 and 1.7 billion hectares, respectively.
Regarding energy, estimating the land used for this purpose is not typically part of conventional land use classifications, necessitating independent estimates based on specific analyses. According to Shell’s estimates, producing renewable energy requires one hectare for each solar power generation system and 15-20 hectares per megawatt of wind energy, and these areas are not fully dedicated to generators. Tracking the precise needs for foundational land is crucial for understanding how to shape future choices regarding climate change.
Greenhouse gas emissions linked to agricultural land use changes and large annual fluctuations are a complex issue requiring analysis at both regional and global levels. Estimates show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from land use and deforestation fall within a range of 4 to 5.9 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually.
Methods for Evaluating Future Land Use
To mitigate potential shifts in land use, methodologies are needed that combine precise large-scale models. The Economic Policy and Analysis (EPPA) model is used to estimate changes in land use from a comprehensive perspective. This model provides detailed outputs that assist policymakers in making informed decisions. This requires a deep understanding of how human activities such as agriculture, forestry, and urban development impact the environment.
These models focus on nature-based solutions and help quantify the impact of sustainable land management practices. For instance, measures such as reforestation and sustainable agriculture effectively contribute to reducing carbon emissions through their role in enhancing carbon absorption. Data indicate that transforming land from being a source of carbon pollutants to being a carbon sink requires substantial investments and policy support from governments and stakeholders.
This context requires intensive studies on the negative models stemming from changes in land use due to competition between agricultural production demands and other areas of use. Strategies such as scenario analysis emerge to assess various possible cycles for developing these models. This proactive classification of future uses includes economic, political, and social factors, which play a key role in guiding land-related policies. Thus, it becomes essential to think about how to manage land in accordance with current environmental challenges.
Identifying path-defining factors is crucial, as barriers that affect the transition of innovative practices and pathways should be addressed. Studies indicate that the failure to address these barriers can hinder global efforts to achieve climate-related goals.
Global and Regional Impacts of Land Use
The impacts resulting from land uses are an important factor in improving resource management and sustainability. As countries strive to achieve sustainable development goals, it becomes necessary to understand the regional and global challenges related to resource scarcity and climate change. All of this is linked to an in-depth analysis of agricultural trends and practices, and how they can be influenced by technological and ecosystem developments.
Each region has its unique characteristics, with countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Europe having complex manufacturing landscapes driven by competition over different land uses. This competition affects agricultural practices, crop productivity, and forest management, leading to carbon emissions that vary by region. Nature-based approaches are a critical element in achieving sustainable agricultural methods and reducing negative environmental impacts.
Additionally, regions like Africa and Asia face unique challenges related to food security and water resources. Changes in land use due to urban expansion, climate change, and economic activities are factors that negatively impact the surrounding environment. To achieve a balance towards sustainability, there must be a focus on transparent policies that seek to enhance the efficient use of agricultural land and contribute to achieving global climate goals.
Innovative ways to address these challenges could include a commitment to necessary measures to reduce carbon emissions and support sustainable projects. By utilizing precision agriculture techniques and innovating resource use, productivity can be enhanced and waste reduced. All of this will contribute to a genuine goal toward a sustainable world that encourages land use in ways that ensure environmental and economic security.
The Required Approach to Achieve Improved Land Use in the 1.5 Degrees Celsius Scenario
Achieving the 1.5 Degrees Celsius scenario requires radical and rapid changes in land use strategies. To reach this goal, governments, private sectors, and communities must collaborate to achieve effective improvements in managing various land uses. In this context, data-driven options-based approaches are crucial, as they help to identify achievable goals regarding the techniques and strategies used.
Additionally, educational and awareness initiatives can be essential to enhance the role of civil society in achieving necessary transformations. Global trends likewise play a role in directing national policies towards promoting sustainable land use by establishing effective legal and financial mechanisms. This also requires government investment in developing agricultural systems that work in stabilizing with ecosystems.
When sustainable technologies are viewed as a solution to climate change issues, the role of innovation becomes clearer. Countries can benefit from successful experiences in other nations by adopting innovative sustainable solutions. All these efforts reflect the urgent need to unify efforts at all levels to achieve climate goals and sustain land uses.
This also applies to changes in urban planning and infrastructure patterns, where there should be a structural coordination for the sustainability of the area by supporting renewable energies, promoting sustainable marketing, and preserving biodiversity. Understanding the relationship between effective land use and achieving sustainable development is critical for achieving a better future.
Impacts
The Technological, Social, Cultural, and Environmental Impacts on Land Use
The technological, social, cultural, and environmental impacts are vital factors influencing the rates of distribution and use of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) across more than 200 countries. The implementation of these strategies begins in 2023, but achieving significant levels of material usage depends on many country-specific and strategy-related factors. The complexities associated with NBS distribution manifest in differing development rates and the presence of barriers such as government support, cultural tendencies, and changes in environmental policies. The more barriers there are, the harder it becomes to reach optimal rates of effective use. Based on a range of historical data and current forecasts, greenhouse gas emissions related to land use could decline if these strategies are applied effectively.
Notable examples of this impact include China’s reforestation campaign, which has achieved positive results in reducing emissions to make China a leader in global efforts to address climate change. The policies of countries like the United Kingdom, in their pursuit of achieving zero emissions, reflect the importance of comprehensive commitment to environmental trends at both governmental and societal levels to achieve tangible results. These interrelated relationships represent a crucial part of the comprehensive understanding of the impacts of modern technologies, environmental leadership culture, and social compliance on environmental protection.
Modeling Supply and Demand for Land Resources
Modeling supply and demand for land resources is an essential tool for understanding the competition for various land benefits, such as agriculture, energy, and carbon storage. The Economic and Policy Analysis Model (EPPA) aims to provide a comprehensive view of how global economies handle changes in use and sustainable practices. For instance, EPPA provides a simulation method for multi-sectoral and regional economies that considers how land transitions between different uses and the resultant impact on emissions.
Changes in agricultural land, such as converting it from intensive use to natural uses, demonstrate how economically associated processes involving technology and human resources directly affect land use policies. Moreover, the impacts arising from economic factors, including the increasing demand for food and energy products due to population growth and changing consumption patterns, make understanding longitudinal transformations in land use critically important.
By integrating land system data and supply and demand models, the benefits of these tools can be multiplied to understand how climate goals can be achieved without compromising basic needs such as food and energy production. Furthermore, changes in demand can lead to innovative land use strategies, such as new types of renewable energy that require usable land, thereby enhancing the need for coordination between agricultural and energy sectors to protect the environment and address climate change.
Comparison Between Systematic Base Models and Data-Driven Models
The use of systematic base models indicates the need for a more integrated approach when dealing with environmental changes and land use, leveraging historical data and future forecasts. While the EPPA model provides a comprehensive view and relies on majority measures and economic trends, bottom-up models – such as Sky 2050 – offer more accurate information and greater complexity regarding land use and conservation practices. These models resist monocultural values and allow for comprehensive, multi-dimensional analysis of future trends.
For example, the Sky 2050 model addresses how to reach increasing levels of sequestered carbon and how classifications such as natural regeneration and other relevant environmental factors can be considered. This approach informs how to integrate recent policies and actions with the complex factors influencing climate change. It is clear that the multiple roles of agriculture, energy, and carbon storage indicate that a holistic understanding and consideration of both economic and social-cultural factors is the only way to ensure sustainable land resource use and address global environmental crises.
Forecasts
Global Land Use from 1700 to 2100
Future projections for land use between 1700 and 2100 reflect a long-term trajectory of significant shifts in land utilization, closely tied to the industrial period. Over the past century and a half, rapid transformations towards agriculture have resulted in significant loss of cultivated land, and the methodological foundations pushing for sustainable land use and restoration are closely linked to changes in economic, social, and technical needs.
Data indicates that major movements towards reforestation and increasing renewable energy production may alter the competitive natures among different regions, underscoring the necessity for solidarity strategies in land management. In general, it can be said that environmental constraints and inefficiencies in traditional agriculture may push for increased reliance on agricultural innovations, but the critical hallmark of achieving a balance between sustainability and meeting future demand is rooted in confronting environmental factors and social processes.
The future of global land use heavily depends on how societies address environmental challenges. If a proper balance among all these factors is achieved, effective land use can support global objectives to reduce carbon emissions and achieve environmental sustainability.
Total Land Area and Its Uses
Data related to land area and its uses is vital for understanding environmental changes and the impact of human activities on nature. According to a study by Kicklighter et al. (2019) and the interactive EPPA model, the total land area is 13.46 billion hectares. Reports from the IPCC indicate that the global ice-free area is estimated at 13 billion hectares. The figures suggest a notable alignment among different sources, showing that historical trends largely coincide across most databases. For example, by removing glacial areas, we find that the data is almost consistent with the total global area. This alignment is a strong indicator of the accuracy of data analyses concerning climate change and land use.
Different land uses continuously interact, as various aspects such as agriculture, energy production, and environmental conservation determine how these areas are distributed. For instance, challenges facing agricultural lands may sometimes conflict with efforts to protect forests and implement natural solutions. Therefore, the EPPA model illustrates how sustainability-driven changes can affect the distribution of various land uses, and the importance of this dynamic in addressing climate and energy issues.
Nature-Based Solutions (NBS)
Under the ambitions related to emission reduction within a scenario of achieving a 1.5-degree Celsius temperature target, natural solutions (NBS) emerge as a significant interface that can be widely deployed. Analysis of the Sky 2050 scenario reveals considerable potential for transforming agricultural and grazing lands through innovative agricultural practices that contribute to reducing emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in soils. For example, the deployment of NBS in agricultural lands is expected to rise significantly after 2023, with projections indicating that reliance could exceed 50 million hectares annually by 2040, demonstrating the rapid adoption of these practices.
Increased protection of natural forests is also witnessing significant growth, peaking at 21 million hectares by the 2040s. This dynamic requires a delicate balance between different land uses, and the importance of forest protection extends beyond improving air quality to enhancing biodiversity and improving quality of life. On the other hand, fire management emerges as a vital measure to expand green areas to reach 10 million hectares by 2040, reflecting the importance of meticulous management of land resources.
Forest Expansion and Agricultural Practices
The allocation of land for forests is expected to flourish, with an anticipated growth of 355 million hectares of forested areas between 2015 and 2100. However, this expansion occurs at a time when data shows a 13% decline in grazing areas. This dynamic highlights the challenges facing food security, especially in developing countries, where transformations in grazing practices need to be adapted to enhance productive efficiency.
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The challenges of shifting towards sustainable practices demonstrate the adaptability to this type of agriculture, with expectations that the total managed land will increase by approximately 3.5 billion hectares by the end of the century. This expansion is deemed essential for maintaining ecosystem balance, meeting the rising demand for food and agricultural products. It is important to note that improvements in land management show the potential to enhance global nutrition despite economic growth and population increases.
Land Use for Energy Generation
The increasing demand for renewable energy represents a vital aspect of sustainability strategies. Forecasts indicate that land use for renewable energy production, including solar and wind energy, will see significant growth. For instance, areas designated for wind energy are expected to exceed 300 million hectares by the end of the century. This shift in land use illustrates the need for substantial investments in renewable energy infrastructure.
Furthermore, the demand for biomass energy is projected to continue rising, indicating that land allocated for this type of energy is likely to increase significantly over the coming decades. Transformations in this context require supportive policies that balance economic development with the preservation of natural environments. Additionally, the gradual increase in areas designated for renewable energy points to the challenges that local communities may face in managing these transformations equitably and sustainably.
Carbon Capture
Carbon capture processes are among the most critical solutions to address climate change challenges. The proposed Sky2050 model suggests that the desired objective must be achieved through the development of new technologies that enable high levels of retention and long-term sequestration. It is essential to recognize that carbon capture efforts require integrated strategies that encompass all sectors, from agricultural to industrial.
Moreover, the model indicates the vital relationship between increasing clean energy production and carbon capture, highlighting the importance of linking environmental and energy policies globally. Achieving a balance between land use for food and energy production and implementing carbon capture technologies necessitates a comprehensive vision and flexible strategies capable of adapting to international and local changes. In this way, a healthy and positive environment for climate change can be maintained.
Carbon Leakage through Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions are key in efforts to reduce carbon emissions, especially in the Sky 2050 scenario. Research shows that forests can significantly contribute to carbon absorption, with expectations of reaching over 3.7 gigatons of CO2 annually by mid-century. However, after that, this contribution may decline as many reforested areas reach maturity, leading to stabilization in carbon absorption. On the other hand, agricultural practices such as biochar are among the largest sources for long-term carbon sequestration, indicating the importance of focusing on diversity in available solutions.
It is also important to note that nature-based solutions are not limited to forests but also include leading agricultural practices and grazing systems that can significantly contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions. For example, biochar primarily contributes to carbon absorption and conversion processes, making it an interesting option for farmers seeking to implement new techniques to improve agriculture and reduce emissions.
Global and Regional Land Use Challenges
The Sky 2050 scenario charts an ambitious path toward stabilizing the climate at 1.5 degrees Celsius, yet regional challenges associated with land use diversity remain. New land use options are being formulated in the U.S., Europe, India, and elsewhere, which may cause competition between different types of agriculture and renewable energy needs. For instance, research shows that most agricultural land in the U.S. will be used for livestock-related purposes, indicating a significant potential for conflict over the use of this land.
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India is experiencing increasing pressures on new land use affecting water resources and agricultural land, while in Europe, the pressure from green energy projects like solar and wind energy complicates its utilization landscape. All these cases clearly demonstrate the importance of introducing new sustainable management methodologies that aid in balancing various land use options.
The Sky 2050 Model and Its Impact on Environmental and Economic Interests
The Sky 2050 model is designed to alleviate pressures supporting renewable energy needs without negatively impacting agricultural production. The available data show that implementing nature-based solutions can be done in a way that preserves food production while making significant improvements in food security. For example, food levels per capita are expected to rise by up to 161% between 2020 and 2100, even with the continued employment of new nature-based solutions.
However, certain concerns must be taken into account, such as the impact of land use for growing plants and producing energy on biodiversity and water stocks. As pressure on land increases, the need for precise strategies to balance sustainable food and energy production becomes greater. These strategies can support the improvement of traditional agricultural practices by introducing new technologies that contribute to increased efficiency and resource sustainability.
Future Trends and the Role of Biodiversity in Sustainability
Future trends play a crucial role in achieving environmental goals by enhancing nature-based solutions that focus on ecosystem restoration. Any land management plan must be sustainable and equitable, respecting biodiversity and ensuring fair resource use. The importance of biodiversity lies in its foundation for environmental cohesion and enhances the resilience of ecosystems to adapt to climate change.
Future trends require greater attention, including the enforcement of regulations that protect biodiversity and the formulation of indicators that reflect its status and future directions. This can be achieved through collaboration between governments and local communities to ensure sustainable use of natural resources. Innovation and investment in new technologies can significantly contribute to a deeper understanding of environmental changes and responding effectively.
Carbon Capture and Direct Air Carbon Storage (DACCS) Engineering Approaches
Carbon capture and direct air carbon storage (DACCS) methods are advanced solutions to tackle the challenges of global warming. These technologies aim to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it safely, significantly contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions. Although the costs of applying these technologies are still higher than many traditional methods, it is expected that these solutions will compete with other options in the future, especially in light of potential developments in carbon policies and global markets.
Implementing DACCS requires significant investment in infrastructure and technology, meaning that governments and private institutions must work together to develop sustainable solutions that consider environmental and economic impacts. For example, these technologies can be integrated with renewable energy systems, enhancing land use efficiency and contributing to achieving emissions reduction goals.
Sustainable Land Management Approach
Land management faces multiple challenges, requiring the development of sustainable strategies to preserve the environment and support agriculture. The sustainable approach emphasizes the importance of integrating practices such as land governance and strategic planning to achieve a balance between human needs and biodiversity conservation. Using techniques such as diverse crops and organic farming is optimal for enhancing agricultural production sustainably.
For instance, using cover crops can improve soil fertility and reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, contributing to decreasing excessive environmental impacts. Additionally, rehabilitating degraded land and increasing vegetation cover can assist in carbon storage and enhance ecosystem sustainability. It is crucial for local communities to be involved in formulating these strategies to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability.
Challenges
Opportunities in Land Use
Land use faces significant challenges represented by competition for limited space among agriculture, energy, and environmental preservation. This arises from the increasing population growth and rising demand for food and energy resources. Achieving a balance between these needs requires a careful assessment of land resources and agricultural capacities. These assessments should rely on local and regional data, considering climate change and its impacts on agricultural production.
For example, increasing investment in renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind power can lead to more effective use of new lands, enhancing both economic and environmental sustainability. If land management strategies are better integrated with agricultural and climate policies, they can have a significant impact on improving the environmental situation.
Collaboration and Policies Required to Achieve Climate Goals
Working towards achieving climate goals requires integrated collaboration between governments, the private sector, and local communities. Policies should promote land use in a way that protects the environment and supports economic production. This requires establishing effective pricing systems for carbon emissions and compliance with environmental standards. Studies indicate that creating carbon markets could provide incentives for the private sector to invest in sustainable technologies.
Moreover, providing the right incentives for farmers and landowners is a crucial part of the transition to sustainable agriculture. These incentives should be designed to not only serve environmental goals but also ensure the economic interests of farmers. By providing appropriate financial and technical support, the shift towards sustainable land management practices can be enhanced, leading to improved quality of life and increased productivity.
Focusing on Technological Innovation
The transition to sustainable land use requires technological innovation in several areas, from smart agriculture to water resource management. Innovations such as precision agriculture and the use of big data can help improve resource use efficiency and reduce waste. This technology relies on environmental information and provides accurate analyses to assist farmers in making the right decisions and tracking agricultural performance.
Another example is the use of cloud technologies to store and analyze agricultural data, facilitating the sharing of information between farmers and agricultural experts. This can contribute to improving coordination among various stakeholders in the agricultural supply chain, thereby enhancing work efficiency. These changes require a strong commitment from governments to support innovation, as well as educational strategies to train farmers.
Overlapping Effects of Climate Change and Environment
The effects of climate change are significantly increasing, threatening the balance of the ecosystem. Climate changes may lead to land degradation, fluctuations in temperatures, and severe weather events like hurricanes and earthquakes. Studies such as that by Hsiang and colleagues (2017) indicate the economic damages caused by climate change, asserting that the United States alone has faced losses estimated in billions due to climate change. The impact of climate change is not limited to the economies of countries; it affects all aspects of life on Earth, including ecological balance and biodiversity.
For instance, agriculture is significantly affected by climate change. Reports have warned that food production could decrease by up to 10% in some regions by 2050, increasing the risk of food shortages. The study conducted by Rezaei and colleagues (2023) addressed the impacts of climate change on crop yields and concluded that agriculture in many regions faces new challenges that must be dealt with in sustainable ways.
To reduce risks, it is essential to enhance nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, which contribute to reducing carbon emissions and providing habitat for biodiversity. Research also indicates the importance of developing sustainable agricultural systems that conserve environmental resources and do not negatively impact the climate.
Solutions
Natural Climate Solutions
Natural climate solutions are considered an effective tool to address the challenges of climate change. These solutions involve using ecosystems to enhance the mitigation of climate change impacts, such as reforestation, wetland preservation, and growing crops in harmony with the natural environment. The report by Griscom and colleagues (2017) highlighted the significant benefits of nature-based solutions that can contribute to achieving global carbon emission reduction goals.
Studies show that implementing natural solutions like reforestation can lead to significant carbon storage, which helps achieve mitigation goals. For example, a single forest can act as a carbon reservoir, maintaining ecological balance and contributing to biodiversity support. Additionally, reforestation offers multiple benefits to local communities, including improved water and air quality, increased biodiversity, and enhanced opportunities for eco-tourism.
Therefore, all institutions, from governments to NGOs, must work to promote and implement natural solution projects more broadly. Achieving international cooperation in this field is crucial to maximizing the benefits of these solutions. By enhancing investment in biodiversity and ecosystems, we can better face climate challenges and achieve the desired sustainable development.
Carbon Capture Technology and Integration with Renewable Energy Sources
Many countries are seeking to employ carbon capture technology as part of their strategies to combat climate change. Among these technologies, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered one of the most prominent solutions. According to a study by Donnison et al. (2020), CCS technology can provide multiple benefits, in addition to reducing carbon emissions by integrating renewable energy with agriculture and enhancing crop productivity.
The core idea of CCS technology is to use biomass as a source of energy while simultaneously capturing the carbon emitted during the combustion process and storing it underground. This technology can save vast amounts of carbon from entering the atmosphere, contributing to mitigating the impacts of climate change. It also provides new opportunities for farmers to increase their income through renewable energy production while reducing carbon emissions.
By implementing this technology on a wider scale, sustainable development can be achieved, and the reliance on fossil fuels can be reduced. It is also essential to invest more resources in researching the effectiveness of this technology and improving its applications to lower costs and enhance environmental outcomes. Incorporating these solutions into climate policies will help improve the chances of achieving global climate goals.
Food Policies and Their Impact on the Ecosystem
Food policies play a key role in how agricultural activities impact climate change. Increasing crop productivity sustainably requires advancements in policies that support ecological farming and sustainable practices. According to a FAO study (2018), achieving sustainable food security is a central element in addressing the challenges of climate change.
Changes in agricultural land use patterns impact the climate by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, due to the shift towards crops with higher water needs or using unsustainable agricultural methods. Therefore, policies that promote the use of sustainable agricultural practices are crucial. On the other hand, these policies also enhance biodiversity by supporting practices that protect natural environments and reduce pressure on resources.
Focus must be placed on developing nutritional strategies that preserve natural resources and maintain biodiversity worldwide. Prioritizing local and inclusive food systems contributes to reducing emissions, enhances public health, and positively reflects environmental changes. Governments should work on developing quality strategies that are incorporated into their national policies and monitor the achievement of sustainable development goals while transitioning to more sustainable practices in the food sector.
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The source: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1393327/full
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