The study of historical and future trends in urban expansion and its impact on agricultural land use in Hawassa, Ethiopia, is a vital topic of concern for many researchers and policymakers. This article highlights how land use has evolved and land cover changed over thirty-seven years, using remote sensing techniques and satellite images. The research presents accurate data on the transformations occurring between built-up areas and agricultural land, forecasting the future of these lands until 2030 and 2050. In light of the rapid urban expansion in urban areas, understanding these dynamics is essential to ensure sustainable development and effective urban planning, preserving agricultural land and protecting the livelihoods of local communities reliant on agriculture. The article will address the details of these transformations and their significance, along with the social and economic repercussions resulting from them.
Urban Expansion in Hawassa and Its Impact on Agriculture
The city of Hawassa, Ethiopia, has witnessed significant urban expansion over the past few decades, leading to radical changes in land use, significantly affecting agricultural lands. The study focused on analyzing satellite data to reveal patterns of land use change and land cover (LULCC) in the city through available satellite images from different dates. The area of built-up land increased significantly from 584.73 hectares in 1984 to 3939.03 hectares in 2021, with an annual growth rate of approximately 15.50%. In contrast, agricultural land decreased from 8324.64 hectares to 3595.68 hectares during the same period, reflecting a concerning change in the balance of land use relied upon by many residents locally.
In terms of economic and social impacts, farmers are facing increasing pressures due to urban expansion encroaching on agricultural land. In the case of Hawassa, these transformations have directly affected food security and the ability to meet local market needs. For instance, shifts in land use have led to exceeding agricultural production constraints, exacerbating tensions over land ownership and leading to conflicts. The study indicates that approximately 3148.74 hectares of agricultural land have been converted to urban uses between 1984 and 2021, demonstrating the urgent problem facing the agricultural sector and demanding rapid and sustainable responses to economic emergencies.
Predicting Future Land Use Development
The study employed advanced models to predict future changes in land use using the TerrSet program to analyze data related to urban expansion and agricultural areas. It is expected that built-up land area will increase to 5009.85 hectares by 2030 and 6794.73 hectares by 2050, while agricultural lands will decrease to 2849.58 hectares and 2033.46 hectares, respectively. This decline in agricultural land serves as a wake-up call for decision-makers regarding the need for planning that acknowledges the impacts of urbanization on agricultural communities and preserves the agricultural activities upon which these communities rely.
The forecasts indicate an increasing encroachment of agricultural land towards urban uses, with projections suggesting the conversion of 64.76 hectares (1.80%) and 48.41 hectares (1.35%) of agricultural land to other uses by 2030 and 2050, respectively. This situation requires immediate actions from the government and relevant authorities to ensure a balance between the demands of urbanization and agriculture, in line with sustainable development directives. Adopting effective policies to protect agricultural land and integrating income-generating activities for some newly settled urban communities will be essential.
The Importance of Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies are vital tools for analyzing real data related to changes in land use and urban expansion. Utilizing satellite images, these technologies enable researchers to understand patterns of urban expansion and identify related trends. This data enhances conclusions regarding past changes and challenges, enabling urban planners to make informed decisions on how to sustain agricultural practices and address the increasing demands for land.
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These modern technological tools enable the provision of accurate and up-to-date information dealing with potential crises. In the future, technological tools and big data should be integrated with local insights to ensure that decisions about urban planning and land development are made in a context that considers local culture and the broader environment. This allows civil society organizations and planners a history of data to prioritize based on population growth and the demand for services and infrastructure. Therefore, preserving biodiversity and achieving sustainable development require the comprehensive and intelligent use of these tools.
The Socioeconomic Challenges of Urban Expansion
Urban expansion in Hawassa, like many cities in the world, represents a socioeconomic challenge that should not be ignored. The rapid urbanization is accompanied by social impacts manifested in the loss of identity of rural communities and the variance of cultural practices. Many find themselves caught between rural traditions and the downsides of the new urban lifestyle, leading to psychological and cultural tensions. Furthermore, many community members rely on agriculture and agricultural industries as their primary source of income, and any loss of farmland could directly impact their livelihoods.
Eeconomic problems may also arise related to fluctuations in food commodity prices as a result of loss of farmland and rising living costs. If current urbanization trends continue, this could lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, resulting in an outbreak of economic instability in the community, which heavily relies on agricultural production. This situation could worsen when urban settlements become higher-value markets, meaning agricultural land is viewed differently and agricultural activities become less significant.
The Impact of Urbanization on Agricultural Land Use
The phenomenon of urbanization and urban growth is a complex issue impacting all aspects of life, with its effects particularly visible in agricultural land use. Many studies highlight the quantitative loss of agricultural land due to urban sprawl, yet the qualitative impacts of that loss, such as its effect on food security, traditional livelihoods, and local cultural practices, do not receive sufficient attention. Understanding these impacts enhances the ability to see the full picture associated with urbanization, enabling policymakers to develop better strategies for land use management.
For example, in some areas in Ethiopia, where urban growth is expanding rapidly, local communities face significant pressures due to the loss of agricultural land, impacting their food sources. The policies adopted in this regard must consider their social, economic, and environmental impacts so that balance is achieved between urban growth and the needs of the population. Additionally, there is a need to document traditional cultural practices that may be affected by the loss of agricultural land, making it essential to integrate these considerations into urban planning and development.
History of Urban Development and Land Use in Hawassa City
Hawassa city serves as an important example for understanding how land use changes as a result of urban expansion. Located on the shores of Lake Hawassa, the city has witnessed significant urban development and expansion in recent years. Analyzing the historical development of the city from its establishment to the present day illustrates how political, economic, and social factors have contributed to shaping land use patterns.
One pivotal moment that affected this city was the famine that struck Ethiopia in 1984, leading to massive migrations of rural populations to cities in search of better opportunities. Numerous studies have been written on this topic, as that period is considered a turning point in land management in Ethiopia. Important to focus on in any related analysis is the importance of implementing effective land management and planning policies that ensure the protection of agricultural land from urbanization while supporting urban economy and social growth.
Methods
Data Collection and Analysis in Land Use Study
A variety of data collected from multiple sources has been used to study land use in Hawassa. The data included satellite images, field survey evidence, and demographic data. Spatial analysis techniques such as ArcGIS and QGIS were used to evaluate the extent of changes in land use.
It is essential that the methods used are accurate and reliable to ensure results reflect reality appropriately. Techniques of image-supported classification were relied upon to identify different types of land use, such as agricultural land, built-up areas, and water bodies. This helps provide deep insights into how urbanization affects each type of use, allowing decision-makers to take appropriate actions. Additionally, field studies were conducted to collect the necessary data to confirm results drawn from spatial analysis, thereby enhancing the quality of the research and the credibility of the presented results.
Future Directions Towards Sustainable Land Use
Analyzing the current and future conditions of land use in Hawassa helps map out strategies for sustainable development. Based on current trends and information derived from historical data, it can be expected that the drivers of urban expansion will continue to impact agricultural land use. Therefore, it is crucial to develop comprehensive policies aimed at managing sustainable land use, which should entail integrating modern agricultural practices with urban planning.
Sustainability in land management requires consideration of preserving agricultural land, developing strategies that protect the environment, and enhancing local livelihoods. It also requires raising awareness among local communities about the importance of agricultural land use and its role in achieving food security. Additionally, technological advancements, such as smart agriculture and sustainable energy uses, can be utilized to enhance agricultural productivity and ensure long-term food security.
Analysis of Land Use Changes and Land Cover
Land Use Change (LULC) analysis highlights how different regions change over time. This analysis relies on a set of aerial images and spatial data that illustrate various land uses, such as agriculture, urban areas, and forests. These uses are classified based on specific criteria, where agricultural land and planted fields are grouped under a general category called “Agriculture.” While wetlands and moist pastures are included in one category to enhance understanding of the biodiversity and ecological significance of these areas.
Satellite images, such as Landsat images, are vital tools in this analysis as they provide a temporal record that allows for comparison of changes over decades. By using these images, clear indicators can be obtained regarding how land has shifted from one use to another. For example, satellite images collected in 1984 may show how lands were covered by grass or forests, while recent images (2021) illustrate transformations into urban or agricultural lands.
The data classification process begins by gathering reference information from multiple sources, such as observations from the field, Google Earth data, and more. Collecting this data is a crucial part of measurement and accuracy, as it enables the identification of change locations and areas that have experienced development or degradation. Tools such as QGIS are used to correct the data and remove errors, which is essential to ensure the accuracy of the results.
Accuracy Assessment of Classification
Accuracy assessment of classification is a key component of any land cover analysis, measuring the accuracy of classified data compared to reference data. The assessment process includes various calculations, such as overall accuracy, producer accuracy, and user accuracy. The use of an error matrix is considered the most common method for evaluating accuracy, summarizing the results as a reference for understanding potential gaps between classified data and ground truth information.
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The evaluation process requires collecting a reference sample from all categories used in the classification. In the relevant study, 1,017 reference data points were collected from various categories over the years, reflecting the efforts made to ensure classification accuracy. This shows how different categories in the data compare and allows for more precise monitoring of changes over time.
The classification accuracy is calculated through mathematical models that consider information about correctly classified points versus the total points. This aspect is important as it allows understanding general trends in land use and how they are affected by climate changes and population pressure. For example, in the case of observing a rapid shift towards urbanization, this is considered evidence of economic and social transformation in the area.
Analysis of Urban and Agricultural Transformations
The analysis of urban and agricultural transformations is an integral part of studies concerning changes in land use. This analysis involves extracting information about urban and agricultural categories from the available data. The original land use categories are reclassified into three main categories: other lands, built-up areas, and agricultural lands, which facilitates the analysis of spatial trends.
When urban trends are identified, similar steps can be taken to project the future and understand how to plan cities in the coming years. Historical data contribute to identifying patterns that can assist urban planning. For example, when a city faces a rapid increase in population, this information can be utilized to create new green spaces or develop infrastructure to enhance the quality of life for citizens.
Moreover, this analysis helps in understanding the dynamics of urban growth. It is not merely a change on the map; it reflects how communities interact with their presence in different environments. Urbanization can take time, but the ways cities evolve – in terms of service availability, infrastructure expansion, and the environment – significantly impact overall quality of life. For instance, communities may increasingly require education and healthcare as a result of these transformations.
Future Land Use Predictions
Predicting land use is an important step in understanding how land uses will evolve in the future. The Land Change Modeler is used to anticipate potential changes in land uses based on historical data. By employing modern techniques such as neural networks and time series, the model can provide accurate estimates for future land uses.
The change model relies on multiple strategies that ensure the accuracy of predictions, including change analysis, transitional potential modeling, and future forecasting. By combining these strategies, the model allows for a deeper understanding of changes and offers insights into how urban and agricultural patterns may evolve. This information can be utilized to assist decision-makers in planning for a more sustainable future.
For example, using the model, future urban land areas for 2030 and 2050 can be predicted based on previous years’ results. These predictions may indicate how ready cities are to build on new spaces or how agriculture may impact the environment. This helps determine whether cities need to expand green spaces and improvements in public services, contributing to better management and development of urban areas.
Classification and Predictions of Land Use Change
The step of modeling to predict land use changes is essential in understanding how land use patterns change over time. Forecast maps for changes related to each type of transition are created through a model that considers the various variables affecting these processes. The model used in this study employs a comprehensive set of stable and dynamic variables. Stable variables are characterized by their unchanging nature over time, such as the area of agricultural lands, while dynamic variables involve elements capable of change, such as the proximity of lands to built-up areas or infrastructure. A thorough analysis of these variables enables researchers to measure their impact on subsequent changes, facilitating the proper planning and settlement of land use. The models are also classified according to their predictive capabilities, with rule-based models providing specific signals, while flexible models offer a comprehensive understanding of potential change.
Analysis
Historical Trends in Land Cover
The historical trends in land use changes highlight the importance of understanding the patterns and changes that have shaped large areas of land over different periods. Results from analysis based on satellite images, such as images from “Landsat,” provide reliable insights into how land use has evolved in a specific area, such as the Hausa City. For example, the area has seen significant changes in patterns and areas of land use from 1984 to 2021. Data showed that water bodies, such as Lake Hausa, continued to represent a large portion of land cover, while agricultural land experienced a notable decline due to rapid urban expansion. This process requires understanding the social, economic, and environmental factors that influence this trend, indicating the importance of developing sustainable strategies to protect agricultural land and water resources in the future.
Impact of Human Activities on Land Use
Human activities fall under the main factors affecting land use patterns, especially in urban areas. In the case of Hausa, it appears that the increase in population and urban expansion has led to tremendous pressure on natural resources. This expansion is often driven by factors such as urban development, where new economic projects create large areas for commercial and industrial activities, thereby reducing the area of agricultural land and forests. The impact of these activities also extends to environmental changes, such as land degradation and water scarcity, which calls for a reconsideration of social and economic policies related to land management. Balance is key to preserving natural resources while meeting the needs of the population at the same time.
Resilience of Models in Spatial Change
The validity of the spatial change models used in the analysis must be examined, as models supported by historical information can be useful in providing insights into the future. Expected results from the models should be compared with actual data to ensure the accuracy of predictions. This includes measuring the quality of the proposed forecasts based on land cover maps from previous years. It is essential for the model to be tested periodically and updated to make the results more reliable, allowing for effective and rational land use planning in the future. It is also crucial that this includes incorporating environmental data and climate changes into the modeling to enhance its accuracy and reliability.
Benefits and Strategies for Sustainable Land Use Management
Documenting and understanding land use results necessitates the development of effective land management strategies to reduce negative environmental impacts and ensure resource sustainability. These strategies include promoting sustainable agriculture and reducing pressure on agricultural and water lands by supporting environmentally-friendly technologies and sustainable economic development. Non-traditional agricultural practices that involve crop diversification and efficient resource use should be encouraged, contributing to food security while preserving natural environments. These efforts also call for improving environmental awareness among the population. Additionally, integrating modern techniques and technologies in agriculture and artisanal stages can help achieve a balance between the need for economic development and environmental protection.
Increase in Built-Up Areas and Changes in Land Use
Built-up areas in the study witnessed a notable increase among the studied years, with built-up area rising by 72.36 hectares (0.31% of the total land use area) from 1984 to 1990. The number increased to 2.12%, 4.99%, and 6.81% between the years 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2021 respectively. The net increase in built-up land from 1984 to 2021 was approximately 3354.30 hectares (14.22% of the total types of land use in the study area), indicating that built-up land saw increases at a rate of 6.7 times during this period, from 584.73 hectares in 1984 to 3939.03 hectares in 2021.
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The increase in built-up areas has a noticeable impact on various types of land use, with agricultural lands experiencing the most significant change and reduction due to urban transformations. This increase in built-up areas can be attributed to a number of factors, including population growth and the rising demand for land for multiple purposes such as housing, infrastructure services, industries, institutional buildings, and other construction activities. This reality reflects the dynamic nature of urban development in the region, where the common pattern of urban growth is characterized by horizontal expansion in all directions.
Classification Errors and Their Impact on Analysis Results
Sources of classification errors in remote sensing pose a significant challenge that affects the reliability of results, and this is related to spectral confusion between different types of land use and the constraints associated with spatial accuracy. Spectral confusion arises when different types of land cover exhibit similar reflective characteristics in certain spectral ranges, leading to classification errors. For example, types of vegetation such as pastures and forests may appear similar in spectral signatures, making it difficult to distinguish between them accurately.
Moreover, the constraints related to accuracy are linked to the resolution of the satellites used; low resolution may mean that different land cover types overlap within a single pixel, resulting in further inaccuracies in classification. These factors together emphasize the complexity of the land use classification process, necessitating the need for further verification and confirmation methods, such as ground truth validation and the application of advanced classification algorithms to enhance the reliability of results derived from remote sensing data.
Economic and Social Transformations in Urban Areas
Rapid transformations in agricultural land use to urban applications in the city of Huwas indicate potentially significant impacts on the local economy, as this trend threatens the livelihoods of many residents who rely on agriculture as a source of income and food security. This may lead to increased levels of poverty and economic instability if alternative job opportunities are not available in the urbanized areas.
These transformations require content that reflects the need for balanced economic development, as reliance on agricultural activity in the community is vital, while governments and municipalities should seek to provide effective cost-efficient economic alternatives. Consequently, the community may witness a shift towards migration to other areas, as the population burden in rural areas looks to improve livelihoods and escape the pressures of the socioeconomic situation caused by diminishing agricultural viability, aligning with trends observed in other communities undergoing rapid urbanization.
Impacts of Transformations on Water Lands and Natural Resources
In the context of notable transformations in land use, the ecosystem faces greater threats affecting water lands. Wetlands are being converted annually to other land use patterns such as pastures, agriculture, and built-up areas, with the region losing approximately 404.91 hectares of wetlands between 1984 and 1990. It is noteworthy that the largest conversion was to pastures, indicating a shift in land use that negatively affects biodiversity and local ecology.
According to the data, the significant transformation of wetlands casts doubt on environmental sustainability issues, requiring effective strategies for natural resource management and protection. This reflects the necessity to recognize the connection between urban and environmental development strategies, to ensure a sustainable balance between development demands and the preservation of natural resources. The data shows that during the period from 1984 to 2021, around 1214.55 hectares of wetlands were lost, indicating a significant change in actual uses and depletion of environmental habitats.
Trends
Future Perspectives and the Importance of Urban Planning
With the increasing pressures on land uses due to urban growth, the need for effective urban planning becomes more urgent. Analysis indicates that between 2010 and 2021, urban growth was significantly concentrated, reflecting the necessity for sustainable planning to guide urban expansion considering social, economic, and environmental requirements. Strategic urban planning contributes to achieving a balance between meeting the needs of the population, economic growth, and environmental preservation.
In this context, there must be an integrated approach that considers developments in urban planning and agriculture, as the main challenge lies in enhancing the efficiency of resource use and directing development in a manner that preserves biodiversity and improves livelihoods. Effective land use requires coordination and collaboration among various sectors, including government, the private sector, and local communities, to ensure the achievement of sustainable development goals and avoid threats arising from unplanned transformations.
Analysis of Satellite Images and Classification Accuracy
The accuracy of analysis in classification maps is a critical factor in understanding and evaluating land use changes. Reference samples were taken to collect data and analyze the accuracy of classifications in the Hawassa area, and reports showed that the overall accuracy of maps each year ranged between 89% and 93%, while the Kappa value ranged between 0.86 and 0.92. These figures indicate high classification accuracy, but do not necessarily reflect the errors present in each category of the map. Therefore, product accuracy and user accuracy were used to measure errors. Product accuracy reflects the producer’s interest in how a specific area is classified, while user accuracy expresses the likelihood that a specific point on the map corresponds to the acceptable category on the ground.
For example, the product accuracy for the classification in 1984 was about 71.43%, while the user accuracy was 100%. This indicates that although 71.43% of tree canopy cover was classified on the map, 100% of this type was indeed present on the ground. Similarly, in 2010, the error matrix table showed that while the product considered that 100% of areas classified as grasslands were correct, the user found that only 69.23% of the areas they visited matched this classification.
Errors in maps can result from spectral reflectance variation similar to the same land categories, complicating the classification process. Agricultural lands can mix with open lands classified as grasslands. Moreover, the accuracy of the satellite image used can affect classification accuracy, as high-resolution images provide detailed accurate information, while medium-resolution images may be able to show changes in land use types but with less detail.
Effects of Urban Expansion on Agricultural Lands
Analyses conducted on satellite images in the Hawassa area show a significant increase in urban expansion over recent decades, providing reliable information on how this expansion impacts agricultural lands. In 1984, built-up areas covered only about 2.48% of the total area, while agricultural lands covered 35.30%. Over the following years, urban expansion developed to the extent that the proportion of built-up areas reached 16.70% by 2021, while agricultural lands decreased from 31.94% to 15.25%, indicating a significant loss of agricultural space.
The spatial patterns of changes between the types of land use show a notable shift from agricultural lands to built areas, with approximately 3,148.74 hectares (13.35%) of agricultural lands lost due to urban expansion. These trends indicate that urban expansion has concentrated in the northeastern and southeastern areas, as Lake Hawassa prevents expansion towards the west, increasing competition for land and resources.
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urbanization has significant impacts on livelihoods and food security, often leading to the encroachment of agricultural land, displacement of communities, and depletion of resources. This highlights the urgent need for policies that integrate sustainable urban planning with the preservation of agricultural practices, ensuring resilient urban environments that are food secure. Previous studies have shown that urban sprawl destroys agricultural land and negatively impacts food security, particularly in countries that heavily rely on agricultural products such as Ethiopia. The increase in urban areas results in a reduction of available agricultural space, significantly affecting nearby farmers who struggle with a lack of arable land, making them more vulnerable to economic risks.
Modeling Future Trends of Urban Expansion and Agricultural Lands
Future trends of urban and agricultural land expansion have been modeled using data analysis programs like TerrSet, focusing on time frames in 2030 and 2050. The 2021 classified image was used as a starting point for forecasting. Predictions indicate that built-up lands are likely to cover 5,009.85 hectares (21.24%) by 2030 and 6,794.73 hectares (28.81%) by 2050. The change matrix shows that agricultural land will lose approximately 746.1 hectares (3.2%) by 2030 and 1,562.22 hectares (6.6%) by 2050.
Modeling these trends requires a comprehensive review of influencing variables, such as population growth, economic changes, and human pressures on the environment. Sustainable urban planning is needed that takes into account the link between urban expansion and agricultural land preservation. By accommodating these factors and moving forward with the development of clear strategies, cities like Hawassa can balance their urban growth and protect their agricultural lands.
Previous studies have shown that the growth of built-up areas eradicates agricultural land, particularly in areas with high demand for residential and industrial spaces. There should be a focus on creating development policies and partnerships aimed at enhancing effective land use, contributing to improved food security and reducing threats to agriculture. The best selection and use of land are essential to ensure biodiversity as well, preserving ecosystems.
Changes in Urban and Agricultural Land Use
Global estimates indicate that urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa will experience a significant increase in urban land cover, expected to expand more than 12 times between 2000 and 2050. This expansion indicates a growth in urban land coverage greater than the increase in urban population, reflecting a decline in population density in the urban setting. These trends are concerning, as changes in land use will lead to the loss of valuable landscapes such as water bodies, forests, and agricultural lands, negatively impacting the environment and agricultural productivity.
Remote sensing image analysis studies have shown that the percentage of change in urban and agricultural lands has seen a notable increase, with built-up lands rising by approximately 12.37% from 1984 to 1990, while agricultural lands decreased by 9.5% in the same period. The figures show that built-up lands have undergone varying changes over the decades, with the highest percentage increase being 101.63% between 2000 and 2010, reflecting a significant shift in land use from agriculture to urban expansion.
Predictive Model of Land Use Changes
Kappa indicators were used to assess the accuracy of the predictive model for changes in urban and agricultural land use, and the results showed that the values obtained from these indicators were all above the acceptable level (70%). These values range from 0 (random level) to 1 (precise level), indicating that the model provides reliable forecasts for future changes in land use. These values are an indicator of the model’s capability to store accurate information regarding changes in built-up and agricultural lands, supporting future planning and providing a solid basis for analyzing potential scenarios related to urban expansion and agriculture.
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This means that stakeholders should be aware of the potential limitations of the model and the uncertainties associated with long-term planning. For example, external factors such as climate change or political and economic shifts can alter urban expansion rates or lead to the loss of agricultural land. Therefore, it is important to use these forecasts to support decision-making regarding land use management, including environmental preservation and infrastructure development.
Challenges in Preserving Agricultural Land
The results indicate that agricultural land is continuously being reduced due to urban expansion, leading to an increasing loss of land. For instance, approximately 746.1 hectares of agricultural land are expected to be lost by 2030 due to the pressures of urban growth. Previous studies reinforce these findings, showing a significant increase in urban activity of over 70% concerning traditional agricultural activities, which heightens the risk of erosion of local agricultural communities and their dominance in practical applications.
Preserving agricultural land is the greatest challenge for developing cities as the population increases and requires greater food resources. It is essential to establish effective strategies that integrate sustainable agriculture with urban planning, including policies that support vertical construction and reduce horizontal expansion at the expense of agricultural land. Overall, maintaining a balance in land use requires a multidisciplinary approach that combines urban planning, sustainable agriculture, and environmental considerations.
Future Trends in Urban and Agricultural Development
As we move towards 2050, pressures on agricultural land are expected to increase due to ongoing urban growth, and it is not surprising that social and economic aspects will play a significant role in determining how we manage land. Despite the challenges, there is potential for implementing innovative strategies that enhance local communities’ ability to adapt to these changes. This requires promoting climate-smart farming practices, such as vertical farming and urban agriculture, to meet the increasing demand for food without the need to expand agricultural activities onto ecologically valuable lands.
There is also a significant need to apply forecasting technologies and data analysis to estimate future changes in land use. Accurate data can be key to directing policies and implementing thoughtful systems that bolster the sustainable development model. By applying scientific approaches to land use planning, complex issues associated with reconciling the need for urban growth and the need to preserve the environment and resources can be addressed. This also necessitates collaboration among various entities, including government, local communities, and non-governmental organizations, to ensure smart and effective use of natural resources in the coming decades.
Rapid Urban Expansion and Its Impact on Agricultural Land in Hawassa
Hawassa is one of the Ethiopian cities that has witnessed rapid urban growth over the past decades. According to projections, the city’s area is expected to expand to 767,226 square kilometers by 2030 and to 1,233,461 square kilometers by 2050. This growth of 158% and 315%, respectively, overshadows agricultural areas and poses a threat to the livelihoods of local populations who primarily depend on agriculture. Large urban expansions facilitate the accommodation of increased land demand but come at the cost of agricultural land loss, necessitating effective urban planning strategies.
To address these challenges, there is an urgent need to implement organized urban planning that focuses on preserving designated agricultural areas. By establishing clear land use policies, certain urban boundaries can be maintained while preserving key lands used for agriculture. Some strategies that can be adopted include developing mixed-use areas that incorporate housing, commerce, and agriculture. This integration within urban growth can promote sustainable growth and strengthen community resilience to negative changes.
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In this regard, engaging local stakeholders in the planning process is a crucial step. When the community is involved in decision-making, policies that serve the interests of the population and meet their needs can be achieved. For example, surveys and workshops can be conducted to gather opinions from farmers and local professionals on how to plan land use in a way that ensures its sustainability.
Applications of Remote Sensing Technologies in Monitoring Changes in Land Use
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies represent vital tools for monitoring changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over time. Historical images captured by satellites play an important role in understanding environmental dynamics. For instance, the Landsat satellite has provided global coverage since 1972 with moderate resolution, while Sentinel images offer higher resolution data but have been available only since 2015 and lack comprehensive historical data that aids long-term analysis.
The accuracy of digital image classification can be enhanced through field visits and visual interpretation. Studies show that using the Land Change Model (LCM) can predict future changes in land use by analyzing key geographic variables such as slope, elevation, proximity to urban centers, and major roads. In practice, our analyses have shown that radical changes have occurred in land use types in Hawassa City over the past 37 years, with built-up land exhibiting the largest increase, while agricultural areas have significantly declined.
For instance, built-up land increased from 584.73 hectares in 1984 to 3,939.03 hectares in 2021. Conversely, agricultural land decreased from 8,324.64 hectares to 3,595.68 hectares during the same period. These patterns indicate a rapid increase in urbanization at the expense of agricultural land, threatening the livelihoods of local residents. We sense the seriousness of these trends, especially since built-up land is expected to continue to rise while agricultural land will decline in the coming years.
Smart Strategies in Urban Planning and Sustainable Practices
Cities like Hawassa need to take decisive steps by adopting smart strategies in urban planning to balance development with environmental preservation. Green infrastructure is one proposed solution to enhance the city’s resilience by integrating natural systems into urban growth. This strategy can help reduce the risks associated with climate change, such as flooding, and preserve ecosystems.
Moreover, vertical expansion in urban development can lead to better land use and reduce pressure on agricultural areas. Instead of creating new communities on agricultural land, high-rise buildings can be used to provide new residential spaces. This type of planning allows the preservation of green spaces for agriculture.
Encouraging agriculture in the surrounding areas of the city is also strategically important to ensure the continuity of local food systems. Urban agriculture, also known as “urban farming,” can provide alternative sources of income for families affected by urbanization. Small market-oriented farms can significantly impact food security and contribute to the local economy. These practices represent opportunities for sustainable development, where communities can reap economic benefits while simultaneously preserving the natural environment.
This study highlights the urgent need to establish effective urban planning strategies in collaboration with policymakers. Future research should focus on assessing the effectiveness of these smart strategies and exploring innovative solutions that balance urban expansion with environmental protection. Collectively, these efforts contribute to securing a more sustainable future for cities like Hawassa.
Expansion
The Urban Expansion and Its Impact on Land Use in Ethiopia
Urban expansion is a global phenomenon witnessed in many cities around the world, including Ethiopia. This expansion manifests in the conversion of land from agricultural use to urban use, leading to the loss of agricultural land and negative effects on surrounding environments. In Ethiopia, urban expansion is a result of multiple factors, including population growth, economic development, and migration from rural to urban areas. By analyzing data from regions like Bahir Dar and Hawassa, it was determined that this expansion causes a fundamental change in land use, affecting agriculture and quality of life.
For example, in the city of Hawassa, rapid population growth has led to increased urban construction, resulting in the reduction of nearby agricultural lands. This has evident implications for local food security as it becomes difficult for farmers to access their lands due to urban sprawl. CA-Markov models have been used to estimate and predict future land use types, assisting policymakers in making more effective decisions regarding urban planning.
Temporal Trends in Land Cover Changes in Ethiopia
Studies indicate that there are significant temporal trends in land use and cover changes in Ethiopia, where these changes are monitored through various methods. Substantial data has been collected using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), which allowed for precise analysis of the current status and forecasting future trends. In recent years, major cities like Addis Ababa and Hawassa have shown notable changes in land uses, prompting intensified research into models and simulations of these changes.
Various aspects have been studied, including the economic and social factors influencing land use change. For instance, the rapid urbanization in Addis Ababa presents a challenge that requires swift response from the government, as this change impacts infrastructure and public resources. Change assessment models based on the integration of Markov chain and cellular automata (CA) can contribute to enhancing the understanding of how these variables interact with each other.
Challenges Associated with Urban Growth in Ethiopian Cities
Urban growth poses a major challenge for many cities in Ethiopia, accompanied by various issues such as traffic congestion, lack of essential services, and environmental degradation. These challenges require integrated strategies for urban planning to ensure sustainability. Unregulated expansion can exacerbate social and economic problems, such as increasing living costs and urban poverty.
By analyzing urban expansion in the city of Bahir Dar, it was also found that there are negative impacts on biodiversity and local environmental components. The degradation of agricultural land due to unplanned construction increases pressure on natural resources, necessitating strategic interventions by authorities to ensure the sustainable management of these lands.
The Importance of Predictive Models in Land Use Management
Predictive models are a vital tool that can be used to guide public policies related to land use management. By utilizing techniques such as remote sensing and CA-Markov models, urban planners can predict the extent of city growth and the associated cultural and economic changes. These models help assess the future impacts of urban growth on the environment and infrastructure, paving the way for informed discussions on how urban expansion can occur sustainably.
For instance, it could be analyzed how shifts in land use impact air and water quality in major cities. By integrating this data into future urban planning models, strategies can be developed that enhance environmental conservation and yield economic benefits, such as improving resource efficiency and reducing costs for citizens. Future-oriented trends in land use enhance the competitiveness of cities and allow them to provide a better life for their residents.
Dynamics
Land Use and Environmental Changes
The dynamics of land use and changes in land cover represent critical drivers of global environmental change, contributing to the degradation of ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, and local climate change. These changes are not random; they arise from complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment, leading to profound impacts on environmental processes and biological cycles. Understanding these dynamics requires a comprehensive review of changes in land use, including the conversion between different usage patterns, such as agriculture, forests, and urban areas.
One of the most notable examples of these dynamics is the phenomenon of urbanization, which constitutes one of the most significant human activities affecting land use. Urbanization is accompanied by an increase in the population in cities, requiring the expansion of urban areas and the conversion of agricultural land to residential zones. Studies indicate that the percentage of the population living in urban areas has significantly increased, from approximately 29.6% in 1950 to 50.15% by 2007, and it is expected to reach 6.68 billion by 2050.
In many developing economies, including Ethiopia, farmers suffer from the loss of agricultural land due to urban expansion, threatening food security and increasing social pressures. Figures show that about 80% of the population in rural areas relies on agriculture, highlighting the importance of protecting agricultural lands from urban encroachment. Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources and agricultural land management represents one of the major challenges facing developing countries in the context of urban globalization.
Effects of Urban Expansion on Food Security
Urban expansion is considered one of the significant factors affecting food security in local communities, as it causes the conversion of land from agricultural to urban use, leading to a decrease in food production. Many developing countries suffer from poverty and a constant reliance on agriculture; however, rapid urban expansion is causing disasters that affect agricultural production. In Ethiopia, research shows that the conversion of agricultural land to urban use poses direct threats to food security, as many fertile lands have been allocated for construction.
For example, the city of Hawassa, known for its agricultural fertility, has seen a significant transformation in recent years, expanding from about 48 hectares in 1959 to over 4044 hectares in 2006. This urban expansion not only affects agricultural spaces but also imposes social and economic pressures on farmers there. This phenomenon requires a deeper understanding of the relationship between urban policies and agriculture to ensure food security and achieve sustainable development.
In addition, changes in land use lead to increased conflicts over property rights, as farmers face pressure from real estate developers seeking to acquire land. This enhances migration towards cities in search of better job opportunities, indicating an urgent need to implement policies that prevent this degradation and support sustainable agriculture.
Modern Technologies in Assessing Land Use Changes
Remote sensing and geographic information systems are considered critically important tools in assessing the dynamics related to land use. These technologies provide essential historical data and allow for a comprehensive understanding of spatial changes. The study of multi-temporal satellite imagery helps model and analyze urban patterns in the context of land cultivation.
By using models such as the land change model, which integrates cellular automata and Markov chains, researchers investigate trends related to urban growth. These models provide accurate predictions about how land use will change in the future, contributing to the development of effective management plans that align with sustainable development needs. In the case of Hawassa, these technologies have been used to monitor changes and make predictions using satellite data since 1984, providing decision-makers with tools to respond appropriately to future trends.
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These techniques are aimed at improving environmental understanding and assessing the impacts of various policies on land use. Such informational data is vital for developmental plans that aim to adapt urban growth while preserving food security and the environment. It is essential to incorporate this information into urban planning strategies to ensure independent guidance for all stakeholders and to achieve balanced planning that considers the effects of urban growth on agricultural lands.
Sustainable Planning in Facing Urban Challenges
Addressing the challenges of urban growth in developing countries and changes in land use requires sustainable and comprehensive planning strategies. Urban planning should aim to achieve a balance between the demands of economic development and the protection of natural resources. Sustainable planning encompasses strategies aimed at minimizing the impact of urbanization on agricultural lands by promoting urban agriculture and developing green spaces.
In the context of Ethiopia, policymakers need to consider policies that take into account the social and cultural effects of urban expansion on local communities. Plans should be developed to rehabilitate degraded lands and enhance food security through technological applications that improve agriculture. By investing in smart agricultural systems and raising the knowledge level of farmers while employing modern agricultural techniques, the negative impacts of urban expansion can be mitigated.
Furthermore, local communities must be engaged in developing knowledge-based policies, so they have a greater capacity to address the challenges that may arise from urbanization. The integration of scientific and traditional knowledge is a crucial foundation to ensure that implemented plans align with the actual needs of farmers and increase local communities’ resilience to crises related to natural resources.
The Importance of Studying the Hawassa Area for Future Planning and Environmental Management
The Hawassa area is considered one of the vital regions in Ethiopia, having witnessed significant urban expansion and its impacts on agricultural lands. Studying the historical and future trends of urban expansion can help in understanding environmental changes and their effects on agricultural uses. Although several studies have addressed patterns of urban expansion and various changes in land cover, the extent of agricultural land loss due to urban expansion has not been explored in depth. Therefore, the aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by analyzing the impacts of urbanization on agricultural land use in Hawassa using data from Landsat satellite images from 1984 to 2021, along with forecasts for future developments up to 2030 and 2050.
This information is a vital resource for sustainable urban planning and environmental management in the city. Increasing population growth and urban expansion are leading to pressure on agricultural lands, necessitating effective strategies to preserve these lands, which are essential for food security and economic development. For instance, by understanding actual land use patterns, policies can be formulated to protect agricultural lands and address environmental sustainability in the city.
Geographical Description of the Hawassa Area
The city of Hawassa is located on the shores of Lake Hawassa, and it is considered the capital of the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region of Ethiopia. The city occupies a strategic location on the lakeside of the East African Rift, contributing to its status as a cultural and commercial hub. The city spans an area of approximately 23,538.24 hectares and is administratively divided into eight main districts known as “Kebele Kitimat.”
The city is situated at an altitude of approximately 1,690 meters above sea level, which affects its climate and the lifestyle of its inhabitants. The residents of Hawassa are experiencing environmental changes due to rapid urbanization and population growth, leading to new challenges in managing natural resources and ecosystems. Studying the city’s climatic and social history reveals that its ongoing transformations have roots in periods of poverty and crises, prompting people to migrate from rural areas to urban centers in search of better opportunities.
Methods
Data Collection Used in the Hawassa Study
A variety of data was used to support the study. The types of data include satellite images, population data, and field survey results utilizing geographic positioning techniques. Landsat data and other remote sensing data were collected from major archives, providing a greater opportunity to study the dynamics of changes in land use patterns. This data forms the basis for future analysis processes and trend identification.
By using software such as ArcGIS and QGIS, the data was processed and edited to obtain accurate information about land cover. The use of satellite images is an advanced technique that allows researchers to assess changes over time, enabling them to identify actual patterns of land use. Analyzing such data reflects the impacts of urban expansion on the environment and agriculture more accurately and can be used to predict future trends in urban expansion.
Pattern Analysis of Agricultural Land and Urban Expansion
Supervised Classification techniques relying on machine learning algorithms were employed to analyze the patterns of agricultural land and built-up areas. This classification allows for the identification of agricultural land versus urban areas and other uses. By using a set of training samples, the study conducted accurate classification of various use categories. Around ten main land types were identified, including agricultural land, water, built-up areas, forests, etc.
The patterns present in Hawassa mirror the ongoing environmental and social changes. For example, analyzing these patterns may show how agricultural land is being lost in favor of areas designated for construction and commercial expansion. This occurs at a time when ensuring the sustainability of agricultural land is crucial. Consequently, the ideas presented in the study emphasize the need to manage the challenges of expansion and find a balance between urban growth and preserving agriculture linked to food security.
Future Land Use Projections in Hawassa
With reliance on accumulated analytical data, predictive models can be employed to foresee how patterns will change in the future according to various scenarios. Studies indicate that the coming periods will witness a noticeable increase in urban communities, leading to more pressure on agricultural lands. These environmental shifts introduce an element of complexity, making it essential to study and reflect upon the social and economic impacts of these patterns.
Predictions also indicate a significant deterioration in agricultural land if the current trend continues without preventive measures. Therefore, working on developing strategies based on precise analysis and deep understanding of local contexts and markets is fundamental to preserving agricultural structures, which are real pillars of local development and food security. Hence, there is a necessity to provide good and accurate information to assist policymakers in making informed decisions.
Using the r.neighbors Tool in QGIS
The r.neighbors tool in QGIS is a very effective tool for modifying classification results by removing unnecessary pixels. This tool relies on a modal neighborhood process, where the most frequent value surrounding the concerned pixel is determined, and this value is then assigned to the central pixel. This contributes to improving the accuracy of spatial data by measuring and analyzing the data better, enabling researchers to obtain more precise information about land cover. For instance, in the case of studying urban agricultural land cover, using this tool can help correct misclassifications resulting from impurities or noise in satellite images. The main benefit of using r.neighbors lies in its ability to reduce errors resulting from previous classifications, making the data more reliable.
Classification Accuracy Assessment
Assessing classification accuracy is an essential part of any study that relies on digital data classification. This requires the presence of reference data (ground truth) and classification data to measure the amount of error between them. This assessment relies on sampling the ground for comparison with classification maps. For example, the reference data collection process included the use of Google Earth images, interpretations of Landsat images, field observations, and interviews conducted in 2021. It is worth noting that collecting sufficient reference data is crucial to ensure the accuracy of analyses. According to prominent authors in this field, overall accuracy and other metrics like product accuracy, user accuracy, and kappa calculations are critical criteria for understanding the effectiveness of the digital classification techniques used. In this way, accuracy assessment provides valuable information about the reliability of the results extracted from classified data.
Analysis
Land Use and Land Cover Change
The analysis of land use and land cover change refers to the study of patterns in which land changes over time. This analysis is often conducted across different years to examine how these changes impact natural resources and increase urbanization. Tools like QGIS are used to quantify the changes by comparing land categories over different time periods from 1984 to 2021. Part of this process includes calculating the percentage change in areas, as well as the annual rate of change, which provides deep insights into the specific trends of site changes. For example, change analysis might show that urban areas have significantly increased at the expense of agricultural land, alerting planners and policymakers to the need to recognize the environmental and social effects of this change.
Urban Expansion and Agricultural Trends Analysis
The analysis of urban expansion and agricultural trends is a vital part of assessing land use changes. This analysis helps in understanding how urban expansion affects agricultural areas and natural resources in general. By classifying land use types into categories such as “Other Lands,” “Built-up Areas,” and “Agricultural Lands,” spatial and temporal trends in land use can be analyzed. For example, data indicate that agricultural land has significantly declined due to the increase in built-up areas. This reflects the necessity to find a balance between urban expansion and the preservation of agricultural land, as well as the importance of developing sustainable land management strategies.
Forecasting Urban and Agricultural Land Use for Future Years
Forecasting urban and agricultural land use is a strategic step in sustainable urban planning. Using Land Change Models (LCM) and various techniques such as multilayer neural networks, accurate forecasts can be developed about land use in future years such as 2030 and 2050. These models rely on historical land use changes to understand how future trends may change based on current factors. It is crucial to integrate accurate and updated data to ensure the effectiveness of these forecasts. For instance, these models might show how urban areas could grow faster than expected, requiring flexible strategies to address these challenges and manage urban growth.
Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Hawmsa from 1984 to 2021
Satellite image analysis indicates a significant change in land use and land cover patterns in Hawmsa between 1984 and 2021. The results showed that water bodies and agricultural land formed the largest share of land cover patterns, comprising about 73.6% of the total studied areas, with water bodies accounting for 38.3% and agricultural land 35.3% in 1984. This situation continued until 2010, when the area witnessed minor increases in those patterns. However, the situation changed thereafter as agricultural land experienced a noticeable decline due to increasing pressure from urban planning.
According to the data, the Hawmsa Lake area in the western part of the studied region represented the largest area of water bodies, with the water area in 1984 totaling 9,031.68 hectares, which slightly increased until 2010 before declining in the following years. Researchers noted that the increased water level in the lake was a result of heightened water flow from higher areas due to excessive deforestation phenomena.
The amount of agricultural land also declined markedly, decreasing from 8,324.64 hectares (35.3%) in 1984 to 3,595.68 hectares (15.25%) in 2021. This decline is attributed to the rapid expansion of built-up areas, which results from rapid population growth. Factors such as the establishment of Hawmsa University and an industrial complex contributed to the swift growth of built-up land in the city.
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On the other hand, marshland areas have witnessed a continuous decline in area due to environmental changes such as drought. Meanwhile, forest areas have increased, representing efforts to preserve the environment through enhancing green spaces.
Rate of Change in Land Use and Coverage in Hawassa from 1984 to 2021
The analysis of the rate of change in land use and coverage in Hawassa during the mentioned period addresses how different categories of land use have changed. At the beginning of the period, water bodies, especially Lake Hawassa, experienced an increase in area by 0.5% and 0.69% between 1984 and 1990, but things changed later as water areas declined in the following years. The causes behind this decline were analyzed, which may be attributed to climatic changes or alterations arising from human activity.
On the other hand, the area of built-up land has significantly expanded over the past three decades, reflecting the notable increase in urban development and population growth. It increased from 584.73 hectares in 1984 to approximately 3,939.03 hectares in 2021, indicating a substantial urban expansion.
Similarly, the shift from annual cropping systems to the cultivation of permanent crops such as khat has contributed to increasing agricultural land use, leading to a transformation of vast areas that were previously used for traditional farming.
As for wetlands, they have seen a significant decline due to deteriorating environmental conditions and rising temperatures. This deterioration comes with the increasing intensity of climatic phenomena, affecting biodiversity and ecosystems in the region.
Studies indicate that the increase in cash crops has led to the depletion of larger areas of traditional agricultural land, resulting in a decline in native vegetation cover. This represents a long-term shift in how the local community interacts with natural resources and land misuse, highlighting the importance of sustainable planning. The findings consistent with previous studies indicate the necessity to monitor the sustainable use of land to conserve and protect ecosystems.
Change Prediction Models and Model Validation
Change models predict the future based on historical data, with various models being adopted such as the hard model and the soft model. The hard model relies on a competitive land allocation model, while the soft model provides maps indicating vulnerability to changes. This system points to a comprehensive view of potential risks and changes in citizen diversity.
The model validation process is a critical step to ensure the accuracy of the predicted outcomes. The projected land maps for 2021 are compared with actual maps to estimate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model. Multiple criteria are used for validation, but there is no global agreement on how to assess the performance of land change models.
Furthermore, the analysis may require the use of high-resolution satellite data in addition to three-dimensional models to enhance the level of predictions. Utilizing AI-supported spatial analysis techniques can improve the accuracy of future change models.
These comprehensive and reliable analyses will assist decision-makers and policymakers in making informed decisions for the sustainability of environmental resources and local communities.
Urban Expansion and Its Impact on Agricultural Lands
Urban expansion is one of the most pressing issues in modern environments, reflecting how social and economic factors can contribute to changes in land uses. According to studies, one of the main aspects of this expansion is the conversion of agricultural land to built-up land, which poses a significant threat to food security and the local economy. For example, there has been a significant increase in built-up areas in regions such as Hoissa, where the increasing population density places significant pressure on available resources.
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The reason for the increase in built-up land is due to a combination of factors, including industrial development, population growth, and the expansion of informal settlements. Studies have shown that the pattern of urban growth tends to be horizontally expansive, reflecting the effort to meet residential, industrial, and service needs. For example, the establishment of new industrial areas or comprehensive housing development plans can be seen as steps that reflect this urban dynamic, but they come at the expense of traditional agricultural land, increasing the risks associated with food security shortages.
When analyzing aspects of the transition from agriculture to urbanization, it is evident that economic factors play a crucial role in this process. Rapid shifts in land use depend on economic growth, particularly in urban contexts in developing countries. For instance, research has indicated that the transition from agricultural land to densely populated areas is occurring at increasing rates, especially in major cities. This encourages migration from rural to urban areas in search of better job opportunities, adding pressure to infrastructure and public services.
Challenges of Remote Sensing Classification and Accuracy Assessment
The challenges of remote sensing classification appear as a vital element affecting the accuracy of results related to land use and land cover changes. These challenges include spectral mixing between different land cover types, which can lead to significant classification errors. For example, different types of vegetation, such as grasslands and forests, may have similar spectral signatures, making it difficult to accurately distinguish between them. Additionally, restrictions related to image resolution play a role in creating errors, as low-resolution images can mix different land cover types within a single pixel, further increasing classification inaccuracies.
To improve classification accuracy, there is a need to develop additional validation methods, such as ground verification techniques and the use of advanced classification algorithms. These steps are not only technological improvements but are essential for understanding the dynamic changes in land use over time and avoiding inefficient resource utilization. According to accuracy tests, classification accuracy ranges from 89% to 93% each year, indicating the success of some techniques, but they do not represent the complete reality. Errors are distributed across different categories, necessitating a need to review the accuracy of each category individually.
Overall, these challenges can have widespread impacts on land use policies, as classification errors indicate the necessity to adopt precise validation methodologies to provide reliable information that contributes to sustainable urban planning and protects agricultural land from unplanned urban expansion.
The Economic and Social Effects of the Shift from Agriculture to Urban Use
The shift from agriculture to urban use has significant effects on the economy and local communities, as rural populations depending on agriculture become at risk of poverty and loss of livelihoods. The increasing needs of urban populations force them to face multiple challenges, including food insecurity. The transition from agricultural land to urban areas means reducing the land allocated for farming, which may result in increased poverty rates in rural areas, where farming families find insufficient alternatives to compensate for the loss of income from agriculture.
It is essential to have strategies to support farmers who are losing their land, such as providing training programs to enhance productive skills and developing new economic alternatives. For example, projects aimed at transitioning to sustainable agriculture or agricultural diversification could be part of the possible solutions. Additionally, the rising migration rates resulting from the loss of agricultural land place additional pressure on cities, compelling governments to develop infrastructure and social programs to meet the needs of these displaced populations.
The transition
From agriculture to urban use is not only accompanied by resource loss but can also influence community formation. Competition for resources and land use can lead to social tensions between local populations and migrants coming to the city. Therefore, it is crucial for governments and local authorities to develop comprehensive strategies that include all groups and enable them to benefit from urban growth and economic development. These strategies should aim to achieve sustainable development and balance urban growth with the preservation of agricultural land and environmental resources.
Accuracy of Land Use Classification
The accuracy of land use classification is one of the essential elements in understanding the transformations occurring in our natural environments. According to the data, the classification accuracy in 1984 was about 71.43% with a user accuracy of 100%. This shows that the classification was not fully effective, as it was observed that 71.43% of the woody vegetation was classified correctly on the map, while in reality, all areas classified as woody vegetation were indeed so. This indicates problems in distinguishing between different land types due to the spectral reflectance similarities of some pixels, leading to difficulties in accurately classifying them.
For example, agricultural areas may share characteristics similar to open lands classified as pastures, leading to misclassifications. The classification accuracy may also have been affected by the quality of the image used, as high-resolution images allow for producing accurate information about land use, unlike medium-quality images that may show changes over time but with less detail. Therefore, it is important to use advanced techniques to improve land classification accuracy, facilitating an accurate understanding of the changes occurring within them.
Impacts of Urban Expansion on Agricultural Land
Analyses based on satellite images have shown an increasing trend in urban expansion at the expense of agricultural land. For example, in 1984, the area classified as built-up was 584.73 hectares, while agricultural land was 8,324.64 hectares, indicating that agricultural land occupied approximately 35.30% of the total area. However, over time, the built-up area gradually increased, while agricultural areas decreased by the same proportion.
Among the significant outcomes of this expansion is the conversion of 3,148.74 hectares (13.35%) of agricultural land into built-up land over a period of 37 years. This degradation affects not only agricultural production but also food security, as it is likely to lead to a shortage of food resources for the growing population. There is an urgent need to establish policies that include sustainable urban planning and maintain agricultural practices to ensure food security sustainability in urban areas.
Future Modeling of Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Trends until 2030 and 2050
The analysis anticipates using the TerrSet program to estimate urban sprawl and changes in agricultural land until 2030 and 2050. According to the modeling, it is expected that built-up areas will cover approximately 5,009.85 hectares by 2030 and 6,794.73 hectares by 2050. This reflects a continuing threat to agricultural land, as a significant portion of urban expansion will come from agricultural land.
Agricultural land is expected to lose 746.1 hectares (3.2%) by 2030 and 1,562.22 hectares (6.6%) by 2050. These projections indicate the need to work on strategies to mitigate the effects of unregulated urban expansion, with a critical focus on protecting agricultural resources and biodiversity. This transformation requires integrating policies for sustainable housing and systematic regional planning to preserve agricultural land and balance the urban environment.
Challenges
Urban and Agricultural Transformation
In light of the ongoing changes facing cities and rural areas, numerous challenges related to the transition between land uses emerge, particularly the shift from agriculture to urbanization. These transformations are clearly visible in many developing countries, where pressure on agricultural lands is increasing due to rising population and rapid urbanization. The impact of these transformations on the environment, food security, and economic sustainability will be addressed. It is noted that the conversion of agricultural land to built-up areas reflects deep structural changes in economic and social systems. This transformation leads to the elimination of agricultural spaces, negatively affecting local food production and necessitating effective alternatives to preserve agricultural lands, such as urban land management policies that consider facilitating vertical growth instead of horizontal.
The Importance of Predictive Models and Spatial Analysis
The process of predicting land-use transformation relies on a set of statistical and spatial models that help in understanding the dynamics of land use. Graphs and transition matrices aid in enhancing a precise understanding of the opportunistic changes occurring in land uses. The use of remote sensing data is one of the essential tools, as it provides insights into how land use changes over time. For instance, previous studies have shown that urban areas witness an increase in built-up areas alongside a decline in the risk of conversion from agriculture. Various Kappa indicators have been identified that assess the accuracy of the models used, where obtaining positive results suggests a higher likelihood of relying on the outcomes as a model to guide future planning.
Land Use Trends between 2021 and 2050
During the period from 2021 to 2050, forecasts indicate sharp transformations in land uses. It is expected that the area of built-up land will increase significantly, while agricultural lands will continue to shrink. Results indicate that the growth rate in built-up areas could reach 76.04%, reflecting a growing demand for urban economic opportunities. In contrast, it is expected that agricultural lands will be lost at rates approaching 34.07%. These transformations will have significant impacts on local ecosystems and food security. It is essential to determine a strategic approach to preserve agricultural lands and rejuvenate urban areas in alignment with the principles of sustainable development.
Steps Towards Sustainable Land Use
The urban and agricultural transformation requires effective strategies that promote sustainability. Urban policies can be implemented to limit horizontal expansion in built-up areas and preserve agricultural lands. The implementation of a framework that integrates various activities in the development of new projects, such as incorporating green and agricultural spaces within urban planning, can facilitate achieving a balance between urban development and agriculture. Community participation in designing land policies contributes to enhancing outcomes and fostering a sense of ownership among the local community, which enhances the effectiveness of these policies. Experiences from countries that improved balanced land use management can serve as a model to avoid future crises.
Application of Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing Technology in Monitoring Land Use
The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technology is vital for monitoring changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over time. These technologies contribute to providing valuable insights into environmental dynamics and changes occurring on the land. Historical satellite imagery plays a pivotal role in this context, offering a clear view of how the landscape and urban distribution have changed over the years. Among the most important satellites used in this field is the Landsat satellite, which has provided global coverage with medium resolution (30 meters) since 1972, allowing for precise historical analyses. Additionally, the Sentinel satellite, which provides higher resolution (10 meters) since 2015, although lacking comprehensive historical data enabling long-term change analysis.
The field visits and visual interpretation improve the accuracy of digital image classification, enabling precise comparisons of land types over time. Using tools like the Land Change Model (LCM), future land use changes can be anticipated by analyzing important geographical variables such as slope, elevation, proximity to urban centers, and major roads. These tools are essential for understanding how environmental factors influence land use and contribute to sustainable planning.
Land Use Changes in Hawassa City
Analyses conducted on Hawassa City over the past 37 years reveal significant changes in land use types. One of the most notable findings is the marked increase in built-up areas, which rose dramatically from 584.73 hectares in 1984 to 3939.03 hectares in 2021. In contrast, agricultural land saw a significant decline from 8324.64 hectares to 3595.68 hectares during the same period. These figures highlight the rapid trend toward urbanization in Hawassa City, occurring at the expense of agricultural land, raising concerns about the negative impacts on local communities that primarily rely on agriculture as their main source of livelihood.
Future analysis also anticipates the continuation of this trend, with built-up areas expected to rise to 5009.85 hectares and 6794.73 hectares by 2030 and 2050, respectively, while the total agricultural land is projected to decrease to 2849.58 hectares and 2033.46 hectares during the same years. These alarming trends pose a serious threat to the livelihoods of local communities in the city’s outskirts, which are already under pressure from urban sprawl.
Smart Urban Planning Strategies to Address Urbanization Challenges
To tackle the challenges posed by rapid urbanization and protect agricultural land, cities like Hawassa must adopt smart urban planning strategies. These strategies include employing green infrastructure that enhances urban resilience by integrating natural systems into urban planning. This encompasses communities where green spaces are utilized, constrained pathways to reduce pollution and emissions.
In addition, vertical urban efficiency can contribute to better land use and reduce pressure on agricultural areas. By utilizing multi-story buildings and providing diverse housing options, the demand for consuming more agricultural land for urban expansion can be minimized. Urban agriculture can also be encouraged in surrounding areas as a means to support local food systems and provide alternative livelihoods for those affected by urban sprawl.
Developing Sustainable Policies for Urban Planning and Land Use
The results of this research emphasize the urgent need for planners and policymakers to develop proactive land use and urban planning policies that protect agricultural areas and promote sustainable urban growth. These policies should include strategies for sustainable energy and effective resource management, focusing on balancing urban development with environmental protection. Adopting smart urban growth plans can contribute to economic development while preserving green spaces and environmental components.
Future research should focus on evaluating the effectiveness of these smart strategies in planning and exploring innovative solutions that reconcile urban expansion with environmental conservation, ensuring a more sustainable future for cities like Hawassa. This can be achieved through collaboration among various stakeholders, including local communities, local authorities, researchers, and donors, contributing to improving the quality of life for both residents and the environment.
Land Use Change and Urban Expansion
Land use change is one of the most significant environmental issues facing the world today, directly impacting biodiversity, natural resources, and sustainability. Studies indicate that urban expansion resulting from population growth and rapid urbanization has led to the conversion of agricultural land into urban areas, representing a major challenge for food security and environmental sustainability. In the context of third-world populations, particularly in African countries such as Ethiopia, this expansion occurs markedly, adversely affecting agricultural lands and water resources.
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For example, a study by Armanch indicates that the city of Huas T experienced a significant transformation in land use between 1987 and 2017. Through the analysis of satellite data, it was found that green spaces, which used to represent a large part of the city, have significantly decreased, replaced by residential areas and infrastructure. This change has not only impacted the environment but also affected the economic and social status of the inhabitants, as many farmers lost their traditional lands.
Moreover, models and techniques such as Markov chain models and cellular automata (CA-Markov) are used to assess and predict changes in land use. These models help in understanding the dynamics of land use change and guiding sustainable development plans. By studying these patterns, urban planning can focus on protecting sensitive agricultural areas and avoiding unregulated expansion that may lead to environmental degradation.
Social and Economic Challenges Associated with Land Use Transformations
Urban expansion causes a series of complex challenges that extend to social and economic aspects. Among these challenges are the loss of agricultural land, rising living costs, increasing poverty, and the enhancement of negative social phenomena such as climate change. Rapid urban expansion can also lead to imbalances in the distribution of essential services such as education, health, and water.
For instance, United Nations reports indicate that rapid urbanization in African cities has not been met with improvements in infrastructure, resulting in a decline in the quality of life. Many urban dwellers live in areas without access to basic services, exacerbating issues such as poverty and a lack of housing.
Additionally, the impact of industrialization and economic growth on land use is intriguing. Countries aiming to improve their economies often sacrifice agricultural land in favor of developing industrial projects and commercial areas. This trend requires rethinking how to manage land in a way that balances the need for economic growth and the protection of agricultural land.
Sustainable Land Management Strategies
Sustainable land management strategies are essential to mitigate the effects of excessive urban expansion and changes in land use. Among these strategies is the activation of smart urban planning, which includes managing land resources efficiently, increasing investment in sustainable agriculture technologies, and promoting sustainable transport systems. Local governments and communities must actively participate in shaping sustainable land use policies to ensure these policies meet their specific needs.
Strategies for sustainability also involve protecting sensitive areas such as forests and wetlands, which play a vital role in preserving biodiversity and regulating the local climate. For example, conservation policies focusing on rehabilitating degraded lands can enhance resilience to climate impacts and provide natural habitats for many endangered species.
There is also a need to utilize modern technologies in monitoring land use. Remote sensing technologies and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools for analyzing and understanding changes in land. Through these technologies, governments and researchers can obtain accurate data on land use and direct their decisions thoughtfully.
International Collaboration and Community Awareness
International collaboration and community awareness are integral parts of efforts to tackle the challenges of land use change. Addressing these issues requires a focus on education and awareness while working on policy formation. Cooperation between countries and non-governmental organizations contributes to the exchange of knowledge and experiences necessary for developing more efficient strategies.
In this context, educational programs targeting farmers and urban residents can raise awareness about the importance of sustainably using natural resources. The community can also be encouraged to adopt more sustainable lifestyles through workshops and awareness activities. These efforts can help bridge the gap between urban and rural areas and activate the role of local communities in managing natural resources.
Investment
In education and awareness, it is an investment in the future. By educating the coming generations about the challenges of land use and the importance of environmental conservation, positive long-term outcomes can be achieved. The public and private sectors must collaborate in this direction, which helps in designing policies and development programs that reflect environmental and social needs.
Source link: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1499804/full
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