نموذج غوردون للنمو (Gordon Growth Model) هو نموذج يستخدم في تقييم الأسهم، ويعتمد على مفهوم أن الأرباح ستنمو بشكل ثابت من سنة إلى أخرى. يتيح هذا النموذج المستثمرين تقدير القيمة الحالية لسهم ما من خلال تقدير الأرباح المستقبلية للنمو. يحسب النموذج قيمة السهم بناءً على توزيعات الأرباح المتوقعة ونسبة نمو الأرباح. يُعرف أيضًا باسم نموذج تقسيم الأرباح الثابتة، ويعتبر أداة مهمة للمستثمرين الذين يسعون لتقدير قيمة الأسهم ذات العوائد المتزايدة.

The Gordon Growth Model is a financial model that uses the expected cash flow from a company’s expected dividends to determine the value of the company’s stock. The Gordon Growth Model relies on the expected cash flow from the company’s anticipated dividends to determine the value of the company’s stock.

How Does the Gordon Growth Model Work?

The equation of the Gordon Growth Model consists of three parts: expected annual earnings, the discount rate, and the expected growth rate of earnings.

The expected annual earnings per share is the amount that the company is expected to pay as dividends in the coming year. The expected growth rate of earnings is the annual rate at which earnings are expected to grow indefinitely: (1 – dividend payout ratio)(return on equity)

You can find the expected annual earnings and growth rate for any public company on your brokerage’s website.

The required discount rate is the return you expect as an investor. Your expectations may vary depending on the level of risk of the investment and the duration of the investment. As an individual investor, it is reasonable to use the average stock market return over the investment period as the discount rate.

Let’s see how this works using XYZ Company as an example:

Expected earnings per share in 2021: $6.56
Expected growth rate of earnings based on the period from 2014 to 2020: 7.35%
Expected return rate: 14.34%

Using the Gordon Growth Model, the expected stock price for XYZ Company is $93.85 ($6.56 / [14.34% – 7.35%]). Since XYZ’s stock is currently trading at $135.23, the model indicates that the stock is overpriced.

Remember that the model is only as good as the numbers we input. Suppose we change the expected return rate to 10.00%. Your estimates for the stock value would be $247.54, which means it is trading at a much lower price than its value. Keeping this return rate but adjusting the growth rate of earnings to 1.6% will lead to an estimated stock value of $78.10, indicating that the stock is highly overpriced.

The changes we made to our example show that the model is very sensitive to the assumptions of the discount rate and the growth rate of earnings and can yield very different results.

Limitations of the Gordon Growth Model

The Gordon Growth Model only applies to a very limited set of companies. The model assumes that the company has a stable business and a steady growth rate and will continue to pay annual dividends that grow at a constant rate. However, the most important limitation is that the model assumes that all free cash flows are paid out as dividends. While some leading dividend-paying companies pay out nearly 100% of their free cash flows, most companies do not. Companies that fit the Gordon Growth profile include:

• Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): They must pay 90% of earnings as dividends and are limited in the types of investments they can make
• Utility Companies: Subject to strict regulations and stable models and usually have high dividend payments
• Financial Services Companies: Subject to strict regulations and usually have high dividend payments

Alternatives to the Gordon Growth Model

A variation of the Gordon Growth Model uses free cash flows to equity rather than dividends to determine the stock price. Free cash flows are what is available to pay dividends and fund repurchase of remaining shares. While companies may have various reasons for not paying 100% of free cash flows as dividends, free cash flows themselves are an objective measure of performance.

This is what the model would look like for XYZ Company using $9 in free cash flow per share, a growth rate of 6%, and a long-term average discount rate for the S&P of 12.18%:

9 / (12.18% – 6%) = $145.63

If

XYZ is currently trading at $135.23, indicating that the stock is opening at higher prices.

What Does This Mean for Individual Investors?

The Gordon growth model is user-friendly and can provide valuable insights for investors into the fair market value of the company if it fits the profile. Using the variation in free cash flows can be a better measure for companies that do not pay dividends or pay significantly less than 100% of free cash flows.

However, the model is just one way to view the company. Other types of analysis can produce very different results. Professional portfolio managers use multiple metrics to evaluate investments and make their decisions. If you are conducting your own research, you might want to consider using more than one model.

Key Takeaways

• The Gordon growth model uses earnings and a constant growth rate to determine a company’s stock value.
• The model is very sensitive to changes in the discount rate and the rate of earnings growth.
• The model is only useful for mature companies with stable businesses and a history of dividend distribution and earnings growth rate.

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Source: https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-the-gordon-growth-model-5208690