**Introduction**
Today, attention is focused on the necessity of achieving a low-carbon future, a goal that requires the integration of a complex set of solutions in the fields of land use, energy, and food production. In light of accelerating climate changes and rising demand for natural resources, the discussion on how to reconcile multiple land uses for human and environmental requirements is more urgent than ever. This article highlights a new study conducted by a team of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Shell, which addresses the challenges associated with competition for land use and ensuring climate goals are met, particularly in the context of maintaining biodiversity and producing food and energy. The article will review the potential benefits of effective regulatory policies and innovative strategies necessary to achieve the required balance, paving the way for a sustainable future where human needs can be met without neglecting environmental responsibility.
Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Future
The transition to a low-carbon future presents a significant challenge, requiring a comprehensive effort that combines emission reduction technologies from economic activities and sustainable land use to meet diverse needs, from food production to energy generation and the preservation of nature and broader ecosystem services. In this context, we will analyze how the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework is used to understand land use competition in a climate stabilization scenario at 1.5 degrees Celsius, where the demand for bioenergy and natural sinks rises in parallel with the pressure toward sustainable agriculture and food production.
Recent studies have addressed the critical role of the land sector in achieving low emission targets, as this is attributed to the ability of land-based processes to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Available options for this include energy crops, reforestation, and nature-based solutions (NBS). These elements are not just alternatives but complex interactions that require a deep understanding of land trade and use and their impacts on food security and broader ecological systems.
Challenges and Opportunities in Land Use
The main challenges in land use lie in how to balance the demands for food and energy while preserving natural systems. Estimates suggest that the area of arable land must increase by approximately 165 million hectares to ensure food and material supplies by 2050, while reaching more ambitious goals may require an additional area of up to 325 million hectares. This expansion reflects the increasing pressure on land, while potential declines in crop productivity due to climate change could exacerbate the situation.
For example, bioenergy represents an important option, but this requires the allocation of vast lands. Studies indicate that the anticipated needs could range from 80 to over 500 million hectares by 2100, depending on the extent of adopting solutions such as BECCS. This complicates achieving the necessary balance between the increasing demands for food and energy and the rehabilitation of nature.
Nature-Based Solutions and Food Security
Nature-based solutions (NBS) represent an effective tool for balancing competing land uses. Research indicates that proper land management could contribute to greater carbon emission reduction capacity, aiding in achieving global goals to combat climate change. However, achieving this requires radical changes in agricultural practices and regulatory policies.
With effective management, about 2.5 to 3.5 billion hectares of land can be attracted to NBS practices that contribute to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by up to 3-6 gigatons annually. This underscores the importance of adopting innovative strategies that integrate land use for agricultural production with providing natural sinks.
Policies and Strategies Needed to Achieve Goals
Many countries and organizations are seeking to adopt effective policies that stimulate smart land management, thereby contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals. There must be long-term commitments from decision-makers in various governments and industries to successfully implement these strategies.
Scientific discussions emphasize the need for integrated policies that require interaction between different economic and social sectors. For example, agricultural policies can be developed in alignment with renewable energy strategies to enhance land productivity, reduce competition among various land uses, thereby enhancing opportunities for improving environmental quality and achieving food security levels.
Study Results and Recommendations
The findings derived from the land use study in a climate stabilization scenario highlight the necessity of making complex decisions regarding the best land use in various locations. Models like the MIT IGSM should be adopted to understand how to coordinate different land uses and achieve environmental and social objectives.
Studies show that available options and proactive approaches to dealing with climate change require flexible and adaptable strategies, which help achieve better outcomes. Policymakers and the international community must collaborate and focus on strategies based on scientific principles to guide sustainable land use decisions.
Rapid Changes and Needs to Achieve Climate Stabilization Goals
In light of the challenges facing the world due to climate change, the need for rapid and radical changes is more urgent than ever. Estimates indicate that current efforts are insufficient to achieve the declared climate stabilization goals, which aim to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. These goals are vital for creating an ecosystem capable of supporting life on Earth. It is essential to promote international collective action and develop policies that effectively meet these challenges. This need extends to organizing land use, reflecting the pressing necessity to reconsider how natural resources are managed.
Responding to climate change requires comprehensive changes in societies and economies. Agricultural policies, for example, should include new technologies aimed at increasing productivity while reducing emissions. There should also be a focus on nature-based solutions, which are effective in mitigating the effects of climate change, such as reforestation and sustainable land management. These methods improve ecosystem health and reduce harmful emissions by maintaining natural balance.
Such solutions have a significant positive impact on the environment and contribute to enhancing agricultural productivity. Governments should develop strategies to stimulate investments in climate change mitigation projects, ranging from renewable energy to improved farming practices. Supporting research and innovations in this field is particularly important to avoid future crises. There is no doubt that cooperation among countries and various bodies will play a pivotal role in the success of these efforts.
Current Global Land Use and Related Emissions
Land covers about 15 billion hectares of the planet’s surface, of which 10.4 billion hectares are habitable land, divided into different categories including agriculture, forests, and urban areas. Analyzing the distribution of these uses shows an increasing interest in utilizing land for agricultural purposes, although this comes with significant environmental challenges. Based on 2019 data, the area allocated for food production includes 3.7 billion hectares dedicated to livestock farming and 1.1 billion hectares for crop farming, even though the area used for crop production is less than one-third of the area utilized for livestock.
Land allocated for agriculture provides significant contributions to the world’s calorie and protein supplies, with crops providing 82% of calories and 61% of global protein supplies. This analysis is crucial for understanding how land use choices impact global food security. Sustainable agricultural practices require land to be used in ways that ensure environmental preservation while meeting the growing needs of the population.
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the data that land use for energy production is not classified within traditional usage categories, and therefore it must be estimated using different methods. Estimates suggest that energy production from wind and solar requires large areas of land, but most of this land can also be used for other purposes, such as agriculture. Future growth in renewable energy production depends on improving energy conversion efficiency and increasing the area of land used.
Emissions from Land Use and Future Challenges
Estimates indicate that emissions resulting from land use and its associated changes are characterized by high uncertainty and significant annual variability. IPCC data estimates the average global emissions from land use between 5.9 and 4.1 gigatons of CO2 annually. In recent years, emissions from land use changes have begun to decline, but this trend still requires support and the enhancement of policies that promote sustainability.
Emissions from land use are considered one of the main factors contributing to rising global temperatures. Solutions lie in improving strategies responsible for managing natural resources and rethinking how land is used. There are various ways to achieve these goals, including sustainable resource management, smart agriculture, and reforestation strategies. Focusing on radical solutions can transform land use from a source of emissions into a carbon-sequestering source, which requires international cooperation and coordination among governmental and non-governmental entities.
Governments continue to search for ways to reduce emissions, relying on renewable energy technologies to replace traditional energy systems. Natural methods are part of the solution, as they have the potential to improve ecosystem health and ensure food supplies. To achieve positive outcomes, it is essential to enhance collective learning and knowledge exchange among different countries, as success in this field requires cooperation and coordination among all stakeholders.
Challenges in Increasing Registration Rates in Reforestation Projects
The process of registering land for reforestation projects is one of the main challenges facing the achievement of global climate goals. With the increasing number of barriers to overcome, the pace of reaching maximum registration speeds, usually expressed as the number of hectares registered annually, is slowing down. The determination of these maximum speeds depends on a mix of experience gained from previous studies compared to historical registration rates for ambitious reforestation projects, such as the expansion of national forests in the United States in the 1930s and extensive reforestation campaigns in China in recent years. These rates are further verified by comparing current ambitions, such as the carbon-neutral ambitions in the UK. According to projections, human emissions from land use are expected to shift from a net source of 4 gigatons of CO2 annually today to a net sink of −6.1 gigatons by 2050.
It is also essential to note that emissions resulting from human land use from 2023 to 2100 in the “Sky 2050” scenario could reach −312 gigatons of carbon. The second part of the calculations relies on current literature for distributing CO2 removal rates and avoided emissions based on time and area. This data is utilized to estimate the temporal impact of various activities on mitigating climate change. For example, one hectare of avoided deforestation generates all the emissions reductions during the time the area is protected, while reductions resulting from reforestation follow a logarithmic distribution starting from the year trees are planted.
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Research indicates that these temporal models generalize across multiple countries or climatic regions, showing that reforestation in tropical areas may reach its peak carbon sequestration rates within 6 years, while temperate or high-latitude regions may require over 10 years after planting seedlings. Additionally, forests in different regions may reach a balance and constrain additional carbon sequestration over varying time periods, highlighting the importance of timing in carbon cycles.
Economic Analysis and Policy Model: EPPA
The Economic Policy and Analysis Model (EPPA) has been used to assess competition in land use among different categories. EPPA is a dynamic, multi-sectoral, and multi-regional model of the global economy that aims to develop forecasts for economic growth, energy transition, and emissions resulting from human activities of greenhouse gases. Changes in land use in EPPA are determined by transitions between five main categories of land: agricultural land, pasture, managed forests, natural grasslands, and natural forests. The models take into account transition costs and associated emissions, as well as maintaining complementary physical accounts of land, reflecting the complexity associated with changes in land use.
Historical data on conversion rates to agriculture is used in response to land availability, where land can transition from less intensive uses (such as shifting from agricultural land to pasture or forests) or it can be completely abandoned and return to natural land if there is no investment in managed lands. The EPPA model also includes direct and indirect emissions associated with changes in land use, providing a comprehensive measure of land use impacts on climate.
When looking at future projections in the EPPA model, the analysis relies on economic decisions centered around savings, investment, and productivity improvements across various sectors of the economy. This leads to changes in demand for goods and services due to economic growth and international trade, in addition to the depletion of natural resources. The policies enacted in EPPA reflect the need for measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and the model works to predict potential future scenarios based on current global commitments to sustainable resource management.
Global Land Use Changes (1700-2100)
Global land use has witnessed notable stability among broad categories prior to the Industrial Revolution. However, land use changes from natural vegetation to grasslands and agricultural land accelerated in the mid-19th century. Data suggests that 1.08 billion hectares of natural forests and natural grasslands that existed in 1800 were converted to agricultural areas by 1900, and this number rose to 3.41 billion hectares by 2000. Recent analysis has identified that most land use transitions have witnessed significant declines in the last fifty years, reflecting substantial changes in economic and social patterns.
Achieving high sustainability rates requires halting historical trends of deforestation and shifting towards forest restoration and more efficient management of pastures. This is closely linked to the necessity of increasing areas used for renewable energy. Although projects to increase agricultural productivity might reduce the total amount of land allocated for agriculture, responding to increased food demand remains critical to keeping pace with population growth. Estimates indicate that even with improvements in productivity, an increase in agricultural areas will be somewhat necessary to continue meeting future demand.
The biggest challenge is known to be the varying classifications of land use among databases. Significant differences appear between databases due to classifications of usage types, making accurate comparisons difficult. In the analysis, data from various sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and geographic hurdle analyses were combined to ensure accuracy in comparisons between different land uses. This contributes to avoiding errors that may result from inconsistencies in the standards used to classify land uses, enabling the establishment of more accurate assessments regarding anticipated changes in land use in the future.
Trends
General Historical Trends and the Use of Nature-Based Solutions
General historical trends across most databases and representations show that nature-based solutions represent an effective tool for achieving emission reduction goals. In a scenario where temperature stabilizes at 1.5 degrees Celsius, there is a significant potential for the widespread deployment of these solutions. For example, Figure 3 illustrates the forecasts regarding the annual adoption of nature-based solution units until 2050. The most prominent options in this context include agricultural areas, which involve sustainable agricultural practices aimed at reducing emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in soils, as well as improving pasture management. These practices are expected to see significant growth after 2023, achieving peak rates exceeding 50 million hectares annually by 2040. Additionally, forest protection will also witness notable increases, with peak deployment rates reaching 21 million hectares by the 2040s, before declining in subsequent years.
Food production systems and renewable energy are under competitive pressures, requiring a balance between land use for these activities and land allocated for nature-based solutions. It is anticipated that nature-based solution practices will cover more than 60% of total agricultural land by the end of this century. This transition is considered essential to ensure the achievement of the required environmental goals, as well as to meet the increasing food needs of the population.
Land Use Balance between Nature-Based Solutions and Food Production
According to the Sky 2050 scenario forecasts, a large area of sustainable land will be used for nature-based solutions, contributing to the provision of the required food resources. Figure 4 indicates how these competing uses will be balanced, with expectations for the expansion of land allocated for forest production across various categories. Despite the increase in these uses, food production is expected to rise by approximately 213% by 2100, negating the notion that the use of nature-based solutions will negatively affect the productivity of the agriculture sector.
The agricultural sector will undergo a radical transformation by 2100, necessitating the implementation of new agricultural practices that support the environment and reduce emissions. For example, biofuel production could exceed 286 million hectares by the end of the century, which additionally requires the adoption of innovative and efficient agricultural practices to meet energy needs sustainably. It will be essential to ensure that efforts continue in parallel with maintaining a clean and healthy environment.
Land Dedicated to Renewable Energy and Future Growth
Forecasts in Table 2 indicate that land designated for renewable energy, such as solar and wind energy, will witness significant growth by 2050. The use of land for bioenergy is projected to increase markedly, rising from 100 million hectares in 2020 to 242 million hectares by mid-century, with further growth to 286 million hectares by 2100. This increase is vital to ensure the achievement of sustainable energy goals and reduce harmful gas emissions.
These transformations rely on legislation and policies that support innovation and investment in clean energy sources, and they require policymakers to address related social and environmental issues. The main challenge lies in how to achieve simultaneous advancement in economic development while preserving the environment in a world facing rising consumption and energy rates.
Carbon Storage and Contributions of Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions contribute significantly to carbon storage, enhancing the importance of forest protection and sustainable land management. Data indicates that opportunities for nature-based solutions can contribute to the sequestration of vast amounts of carbon, with forests being the primary source of these contributions. Achieving this objective requires collaboration among various stakeholders to enhance forest protection and improve natural resource management.
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A pressing call to expand the use of nature-based solutions in various agricultural activities and the preservation of natural environments. This approach can contribute to increasing agricultural productivity while also reducing emissions, achieving the necessary balance between economic growth and environmental protection. These steps are essential to ensure that global climate targets are met.
Carbon Emission Projections and Natural Improvement Methods
With the increasing awareness of climate change, the need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to achieve global climate objectives has become urgent. Projections suggest that by mid-century, nature-based solutions (NBS) in forestry could contribute to a reduction of around 3.7 gigatons of CO2 annually. However, these emissions are expected to decline thereafter due to the maturation of reforested areas, reducing forests’ capacity to sequester carbon. Conversely, NBS in agricultural activities is considered the second-largest source for achieving CO2 reductions, where it can enhance the capacity to sequester about 2 gigatons of CO2 annually for decades to come. This reflects the importance of sustainable agriculture and agricultural innovations such as using biochar, which represents an effective tool for carbon sequestration. Additionally, effective grazing systems and regenerative agriculture must play a role in achieving positive outcomes, even though they may face challenges due to soil saturation with carbon over time.
Land Use Challenges and Regional Distribution
Although the total land use can meet the increasing demands arising from climate objectives, there are significant challenges at the regional level. In the United States, it is estimated that 88% of grazing lands will be used for NBS activities by 2100, raising questions about how different uses will be distributed. Meanwhile, Europe faces greater challenges concerning the use of wind and solar energy land, as 74% of the remaining lands would be needed, potentially leading to conflicts with urban areas. On the other hand, China and India are experiencing new pressures regarding land use, where achieving climate objectives may require utilizing 80% of the currently available land in these countries. Findings indicate that Brazil is the only country experiencing moderate conditions in land use pressures, yet there are still questions about the potential for improving natural uses and achieving sustainability.
Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve Climate Objectives
Implementing a comprehensive strategy to stabilize the climate at 1.5 degrees Celsius requires radical changes in policies, consumption patterns, and land management. The existence of nature-based solutions, such as tree planting and using renewable lands, is essential, but these practices also need to be integrated with the requirements of food and renewable energy production. Models developed suggest that 3.5 million hectares of land could suffice to achieve the goal of reducing 6 gigatons of CO2 annually. It is crucial to explore the balance between biodiversity and resource protection while enhancing agricultural production. Results indicate that adopting regenerative agricultural practices can enhance food security while reducing negative environmental impacts during the period from 2020 to 2100.
Future Trends and Innovations in Land Management
Despite the progress made so far in the field of nature-based solutions, there is an urgent need to explore more innovations. Scientists believe the research scope should be expanded to include other methods such as improving aquatic management or protecting soil from erosion. There is also growing interest in carbon emission control technologies, such as carbon capture and storage. However, it must be recognized that engineering solutions do not eliminate the need for ongoing efforts in emission reduction. Emphasizing this approach, studies highlight the importance of regulating land use efforts to ensure that agricultural activities do not conflict with greenhouse gas emissions reduction, necessitating the use of effective indicators to monitor the required developments.
Balance
Between Land Management and Renewable Energy Uses
Sustainable land management options and renewable energy production are among the most important topics that need to be addressed accurately. Studies based on global models have shown that it is possible to allocate between 2.5 to 3.5 billion hectares of land for the application of sustainable land management practices (NBS), enhancing carbon capture capacity and providing renewable energy. These practices depend on protecting, managing, and restoring land, aiming to achieve a balance between human needs and what nature requires. For example, these practices could potentially provide from 3 to 6 billion tons of carbon emissions reductions annually, in addition to producing between 325 to 650 exajoules per year of renewable energy, including approximately 0.2 to 0.35 billion hectares of solar and wind energy.
The challenge lies in how to manage this land in a balanced way between agricultural production and renewable energy. For instance, if NBS practices are widely adopted by farmers by mid-century, they will need to improve agricultural productivity to not impact food supplies. Therefore, collaboration between governments, farmers, and local communities is vital to achieving this goal.
Effective Trends in Land Management and Social Equity
Successful implementation of sustainable land management practices requires active participation from local communities, especially in areas where farmers own the land. It is essential to invest efforts in providing education and awareness about the benefits of these practices. Additionally, the rights of indigenous communities must be included in any land management strategy. Often, these rights are not formally recognized, leading to challenges in implementing sustainable practices.
Consideration must also be given to how incentives can be shaped to increase the adoption of these practices, as incentives should be designed to enhance equity. One way to promote social equity is to ensure that local communities are involved in decision-making and resource distribution fairly. This also includes providing support and guidance to small farmers to encourage them to improve sustainable farming practices.
Policies Needed to Support Sustainable Land Management
In order to achieve climate sustainability goals, it is crucial to have clear policies that contribute to the pricing of carbon emissions and land. These policies should cover the land sector under current emissions policies, as well as establish independent markets for carbon offsets. This can help achieve environmental goals without impacting agricultural production estimates.
Achieving these goals requires broad consensus among all stakeholders, including local authorities, communities, and academia. For example, existing market experiences can help us better understand the successful methods that lead to the success of these policies, contributing to the integration of environmental and social dimensions in development plans.
Future Challenges and Land Management Strategies
Climate policies face a number of challenges in the future, including population growth, increased demand for land, climate change, and economic costs. These factors have significant impacts on land governance and its use. The potential competition between various agricultural uses requires a quick and innovative response from policymakers to address the environmental and economic needs of the community.
It is important to conduct comprehensive studies at both regional and local levels to understand strengths and weaknesses, as well as available opportunities and challenges. These studies will help in developing comprehensive land management strategies to effectively meet community needs. Additionally, enhancing coordination between different sectors is essential to achieve sustainable investments that support human and environmental development.
Change
Climate Change and Food Security Challenges
Climate change issues are among the most critical challenges facing the world today, causing significant changes in weather patterns and climate systems, which directly impacts agricultural production and food security. Studies indicate that changes in climate may lead to a decline in the production of major crops such as rice and wheat, putting the most vulnerable segments of society at risk. It is essential to work on developing effective solutions to address these challenges, such as improving farming methods and adopting food sustainability strategies.
While some countries experience increased agricultural production due to changes in climate patterns, others are more at risk from rain shortages or floods. This requires a concerted effort from the international community to develop effective policies aimed at achieving food security on a sustainable basis, such as enhancing research and development in sustainable agriculture and utilizing modern technology to improve crop yield and output.
The Role of Renewable Energy in Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change
Renewable energy is considered one of the most prominent solutions to face the risks of climate change, as it helps in reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainability. The world is increasingly shifting towards the use of clean energy sources like solar and wind, which provide non-polluting energy and protect the environment. The adoption of renewable energy is an urgent necessity, as reliance on fossil fuels increases the risks of climate change. Transitioning to renewable energy allows for the reduction of economic vulnerabilities of agricultural crops from the impacts of rising temperatures, thereby contributing to food security.
Investments in renewable energy are an appealing option for many countries, as they contribute to creating new job opportunities and enhancing economic growth. Moreover, renewable energy provides a practical solution to alleviate poverty by improving access to energy in remote areas, which boosts agricultural productivity and enhances profitability through better utilization of available resources.
Research and Innovations in Sustainable Agriculture
Research and innovations in sustainable agriculture are crucial factors in enhancing food security in the face of climate change. Modern technologies, such as precision agriculture and genetic modification, offer significant potential to increase agricultural productivity and reduce waste. By utilizing technology such as weather and soil data analysis, farmers can make informed decisions that enhance crop output and determine the optimal techniques for each crop type.
For example, updated varieties of drought-resistant crops have been developed, helping farmers maintain production even under severe drought conditions. Research institutions are also working on developing innovative agricultural systems aimed at reducing water usage and pesticides through techniques such as organic farming and intercropping.
These innovations emphasize the importance of collaboration between governments, the private sector, and research centers to fund research and implement effective solutions on a wide scale. This can contribute to advancing sustainable agriculture and ensuring food production is sufficient to meet the needs of the growing population in a constantly changing world.
Activating Legal Frameworks and Public Policies to Combat Climate Change
Activating legal frameworks and public policies is a vital part of efforts to address climate change. Policies should be built on solid scientific foundations and based on recent research to ensure the achievement of the desired outcomes. This requires coordination between local and international governments to create an environment conducive to implementing sustainable and innovative strategies.
Effective policies include encouraging investment in clean technology and stimulating the use of renewable energy. It may also require providing incentives for farmers and investors to engage in sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to mutual benefits for all parties. Additionally, developing initiatives such as “relying on natural solutions for the climate” is part of these efforts, focusing on enhancing ecosystem sustainability and preserving biodiversity.
In
the end, climate change requires constructive and inclusive cooperation from all stakeholders, ensuring that policies are flexible and adaptable to future climate changes. To achieve this, strategies must be adopted that support the most affected groups and work towards achieving social justice and collective action to effectively tackle these global challenges.
Land Use Challenges in the Face of Climate Change
Land is a critical factor in efforts to reduce carbon emissions and achieve sustainable development. Addressing climate change requires a radical shift in how land is used, especially in light of global goals to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The world faces significant challenges related to competition for land use among agriculture, renewable energy, and environmental conservation. Reaching effective solutions requires strategic planning, where the aim is to balance varying needs. Leaders and planners must understand these dynamics to manage land use effectively, considering the impacts of climate change on food production and food security.
Recent studies show an urgent need to increase arable land by 165 million hectares to ensure food needs are met by 2050. However, this area may need to double with increasing challenges related to population growth and changing consumption habits. Returning to the use of abandoned lands and smart agricultural techniques can contribute to better land management, helping to mitigate the impacts of climate change and enhance soil fertility. For example, restoring abandoned agricultural lands could provide habitat for new plants, helping to enhance biodiversity.
Opportunities for Renewable Energy and Its Role in Sustainable Land Use
Renewable energy is a vital part of global strategies to reduce carbon emissions. With the increasing demand for renewable energy sources, competition for land areas used for solar and wind energy production emerges. Estimates suggest that solar energy could require approximately 80 to more than 500 million hectares of land to meet the world’s energy needs by 2100, which necessitates careful planning and effective management strategies to balance natural resource exploitation with environmental protection.
The application of renewable energy also helps mitigate climate change effects by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. For instance, narrow lands that could not be utilized for agriculture could be used to establish renewable energy plants. Governments must commit to policies that support investment in these areas, facilitating the expansion of clean energy use. Designs such as vertical farms can effectively utilize urban spaces, reducing land use and increasing food energy production. In this context, many countries are working to enhance cooperation between the public and private sectors to present innovative projects that combine energy and food.
Balancing Food Security and Environmental Conservation
Food security and environmental conservation issues are closely interconnected. Significant efforts to reduce carbon emissions require a delicate balance between food production and ecosystem protection. Research indicates that supporting sustainable agriculture can correct traditional food production pathways, contributing to better environmental outcomes. Techniques such as organic farming or precision farming contribute not only to increased production but also to improving soil fertility and reducing the use of pesticides and chemical fertilizers.
It is important to consider agricultural innovations that enhance food production while maintaining healthy ecosystems. Strategically allocating natural resources ensures food security while preserving biodiversity. Laws and policies that encourage sustainable land use can play an effective role in avoiding land degradation and climate change. Experiences from countries like the Netherlands have proven the effectiveness of adopting sustainable agricultural practices that balance environmental conservation with increasing agricultural production.
Importance
Nature-Based Solutions to Climate Challenges
Nature-based solutions play a vital role in mitigating the effects of climate change. These solutions include ecosystem restoration, reforestation, and forest conservation, all of which significantly contribute to carbon absorption from the atmosphere. Plans that work to enhance biodiversity and improve ecosystem quality are part of the strategies to combat climate change, as their effectiveness in achieving positive outcomes for both the environment and communities is recognized.
Nature-based solutions enhance the ability of local communities to adapt to climate changes by promoting patterns of solidarity and cooperation among individuals. Examples include community involvement in forest restoration processes, which contribute to creating new job opportunities and enhancing food security. Such initiatives demonstrate how environmental efforts can integrate with the needs of social and economic development. Projects like Kamtobia in indigenous forests serve as a living example of success in the comprehensive implementation of these solutions, reflecting local culture and enhancing collective identity.
Current Land Use Worldwide and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Land comprises about 15 billion hectares of the Earth’s surface, distributed among habitable land, glaciers, and arid regions. The estimated distribution of this land varies by sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicating a lack of consensus on land use classifications. Data shows that 10.4 billion hectares of habitable land are primarily used in five categories: two related to agriculture (crops and livestock) and three related to other uses (forests, wooded land, and urban areas).
According to data, livestock production occupies about 3.7 billion hectares, while other agricultural lands use 1.1 billion hectares. However, compared to this, crops significantly contribute to providing calories and proteins relative to the land allocated for livestock production, with crops accounting for 82% of total calorie intake and 61% of global protein supplies. Forests and wooded land occupy about 4.0 and 1.7 billion hectares, respectively.
Regarding energy, estimating the land used for this purpose is not typically part of traditional land use classifications, necessitating independent estimates based on specific analyses. According to Shell estimates, renewable energy production requires one hectare for each solar power generation system and 15-20 hectares for each megawatt of wind energy; these areas are not entirely dedicated to the generators. Tracking the exact needs of foundational lands is essential for understanding how to make future choices regarding climate change.
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with agricultural land use changes and large annual variances present a complex issue that requires analysis at both regional and global levels. Estimates indicate that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from land use and forest changes are in a range of 4 to 5.9 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually.
Methods for Assessing Future Land Use
To mitigate potential shifts in land use, methodologies that combine precise large-scale models are needed. The Economic Policy and Projections Analysis model (EPPA) is used to estimate changes in land use from a holistic perspective. This model provides detailed outputs that assist policymakers in making informed decisions. This requires a deep understanding of how human activities such as agriculture, forestry, and urban development impact the environment.
These models focus on nature-based solutions and help measure the impact of sustainable land management practices. For example, measures such as reforestation and sustainable agriculture effectively contribute to reducing carbon emissions through their role in enhancing carbon absorption. Data show that the transition from being a source of carbon pollutants to being a carbon sink requires substantial investments and policy support from governments and stakeholders.
This context requires extensive studies of the negative models resulting from changes in land use due to competition between agricultural production demands and other areas of use. Strategies such as scenario analysis emerge to assess various possible cycles for developing these models. This proactive classification of future uses includes economic, political, and social factors that play a key role in guiding land-related policies. Therefore, it becomes essential to think about how to manage land in accordance with current environmental challenges.
Identifying path-dependent factors is crucial, as barriers that affect the transition of innovative practices and methods should be addressed. Studies indicate that failure to tackle these barriers can hinder efforts to achieve global climate goals.
Global and Regional Impacts of Land Use
The impacts arising from land uses are an important factor in improving resource management and sustainability. As countries strive to achieve sustainable development goals, it becomes essential to understand the regional and global challenges related to resource scarcity and climate change. All of this is linked to a deep analysis of agricultural trends and practices and how they can be affected by developments in technology and the ecosystem.
Each region has its unique characteristics, with countries like the United States, Brazil, and Europe having a complex manufacturing landscape driven by competition for various land uses. This competition influences agricultural processes, crop productivity, and forest management, leading to carbon emissions that vary by region. Nature-based approaches are a critical element in achieving sustainable agricultural methods and reducing negative impacts on the environment.
Furthermore, regions like Africa and Asia face unique challenges related to food security and water resources. Transitions in land use due to urban expansion, climatic changes, and economic activities are factors that negatively affect the surrounding environment. To achieve a balance toward sustainability, there must be a focus on transparent policies aiming to enhance the effective use of agricultural lands and contribute to achieving global climate goals.
Innovative approaches to address these challenges may involve committing to necessary actions to reduce carbon emissions and support sustainable projects. By employing precision agriculture technologies and innovating resource use, productivity can be enhanced, and waste can be reduced. All of this will contribute to a genuine goal towards a sustainable world that encourages land use in ways that ensure environmental and economic security.
The Required Approach to Improve Land Use in a 1.5 Degrees Celsius Scenario
Achieving a 1.5 degrees Celsius scenario requires radical and rapid changes in land use strategies. To achieve this goal, governments, the private sector, and society must collaborate to effect effective improvements in the management of various land uses. In this context, data-driven option-based methods are critically important, working to define achievable goals regarding the technologies and strategies employed.
Additionally, educational and awareness initiatives can be essential to enhance the role of civil society in achieving the necessary transformations. Global trends also play a role in guiding national policies towards promoting sustainable land use by establishing effective legal and financial mechanisms. This also requires governments to invest in developing agricultural systems that achieve stabilizing work with ecosystems.
When sustainable technologies are viewed as a solution to the climate change issue, the role of innovation becomes clearer. Countries can benefit from successful experiences in other nations by adopting innovative sustainable solutions. All these efforts reflect the urgent need to unify efforts at all levels to achieve climate goals and sustain land uses.
This also applies to changes in urban planning and infrastructure patterns, where there should be structural coordination for the sustainability of the region by supporting renewable energies, promoting sustainable marketing, and preserving biodiversity. Understanding the relationship between effective land use and achieving sustainable development is essential for attaining a better future.
Impacts
The Technological, Social, Cultural, and Environmental Impacts on Land Use
The technological, social, cultural, and environmental impacts are vital factors that influence the rates of distribution and use of nature-based strategies (NBS) across more than 200 countries. The implementation of these strategies begins in 2023, but achieving significant material usage levels relies on numerous factors related to each country and strategy. The complexities associated with the distribution of NBS are evident in the varying rates of development and the presence of barriers such as government support, cultural trends, and changes in environmental policies. The more barriers there are, the harder it becomes to reach maximum effective usage rates. Based on a range of historical data and current forecasts, greenhouse gas emissions related to land use could decrease if these strategies are effectively applied.
A prominent example of this impact is China’s reforestation campaign, which has achieved positive results in reducing emissions, making China a leader in global efforts to combat climate change. The policies of countries like the United Kingdom, in its pursuit of zero emissions targets, reflect the importance of comprehensive commitment to environmental trends at both governmental and grassroots levels to achieve tangible results. These interrelated relationships are a fundamental part of the comprehensive understanding of the impacts of modern technologies, the culture of environmental leadership, and social compliance on environmental protection.
Modeling Supply and Demand for Land Resources
Modeling supply and demand for land resources is an important tool for understanding competition for the use of various land benefits, such as agriculture, energy, and carbon storage. The Economic Policy and Analysis (EPPA) model provides a comprehensive view of how global economies deal with changes in usage and sustainable practices. For example, EPPA offers a simulation approach for multi-sectoral and regional economies, considering how land transitions between different uses and the resulting emissions impacts.
Changes in agricultural land, such as converting from intensive use to natural uses, demonstrate how economic processes related to technology and human resources directly affect land use policies. Additionally, the impacts resulting from economic factors, including the rising demand for food and energy products due to population growth and changing consumption patterns, make understanding longitudinal transitions in land use critically important.
By integrating land system data and supply and demand models, the benefits of these tools can be multiplied to understand how climate goals can be met without compromising basic needs such as food and energy production. Furthermore, changes in demand can lead to innovative land use strategies, such as new types of renewable energy that require usable land, highlighting the need for coordination between the agricultural and energy sectors to preserve the environment and tackle climate change.
Comparison Between Systematic Base Models and Data-Driven Models
The use of systematic base models signifies the need for a more integrated approach when dealing with environmental changes and land use, leveraging historical data and future forecasts. While the EPPA model provides a comprehensive view and relies on majority measurements and economic trends, bottom-up models – such as Sky 2050 – offer more accurate information and greater complexity regarding land use and conservation practices. These models resist monolithic values and allow for a comprehensive and multidimensional analysis of future trends.
For example, the Sky 2050 model addresses how to achieve increasing levels of stored carbon and how classifications like natural renewal and other relevant environmental factors can be considered. This approach benefits from integrating recent policies and actions with the complex factors influencing climate change. It is clear that the multiple roles of agriculture, energy, and carbon storage indicate that a holistic understanding and consideration of economic, social, and cultural factors is the only way to ensure the sustainable use of land resources and address global environmental crises.
Forecasts
Global Land Use from 1700 to 2100
The future projections for land use between 1700 and 2100 reflect a long-term trajectory of significant transformations in land use, closely related to the industrial period. Over the past century and a half, rapid shifts towards agriculture have resulted in substantial loss of cultivated land, and the systemic fundamentals driving towards sustainable land use and restoration have been closely linked to changing economic, social, and technological needs.
Data indicates that major movements toward reforestation and increased renewable energy production may alter competitive dynamics among different regions, underscoring the necessity for solidarity strategies for land management. Broadly, it can be said that the obstacles of traditional agriculture and inefficiency may drive greater reliance on agricultural innovations, yet the critical sign for achieving a balance between sustainability and meeting future demand roots itself in confronting environmental factors and social processes.
The future of global land use is heavily dependent on how societies deal with environmental challenges. If a proper balance is achieved among all these factors, effective land use can support global goals for reducing carbon emissions and achieving environmental sustainability.
Total Land Area and Its Uses
Data related to land area and its uses is vital for understanding environmental changes and the impact of human activities on nature. According to a study by Kicklighter et al. (2019) and the EPPA interactive model, the total land area is estimated at 13.46 billion hectares. Meanwhile, IPCC reports indicate that the global land area free of ice is about 13 billion hectares. The figures show a notable agreement among different sources, indicating that historical trends largely align across most databases. For instance, by removing glacial areas, we find that the data is almost consistent with the total global area. This agreement is a strong indicator of the accuracy of data analyses concerning climate change and land use.
Different land uses continuously interact, as various aspects such as agriculture, energy production, and environmental conservation determine how these areas are distributed. For example, challenges facing agricultural lands may sometimes conflict with efforts to protect forests and implement nature-based solutions. Thus, the EPPA model illustrates how sustainability-directed changes can affect the distribution of various land uses, highlighting the importance of this dynamic in addressing climate and energy issues.
Nature-Based Solutions (NBS)
In light of ambitions related to emission reductions under a scenario of achieving a 1.5-degree Celsius increase, nature-based solutions (NBS) emerge as a significant interface that can be widely deployed. Analysis of the Sky 2050 scenario reveals substantial potential for transforming agricultural and pasture lands through innovative agricultural practices that contribute to reducing emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in the soil. For instance, it is expected that NBS employment in agricultural lands will increase significantly after 2023, with projections indicating that reliance could reach over 50 million hectares annually by 2040, demonstrating the rapid adoption of these practices.
Increased protection for natural forests also sees notable growth, peaking at 21 million hectares by the 2040s. This dynamic requires a delicate balance among different land uses, and the importance of forest protection extends not only to improving air quality but also to enhancing biodiversity and improving quality of life. On the other hand, fire management becomes a vital measure to expand green areas to reach 10 million hectares by 2040, reflecting the importance of meticulous management of land resources.
Forest Expansion and Agricultural Practices
The allocation of land for forests is expected to flourish, with a projected growth of 355 million hectares of forested areas between 2015 and 2100. However, this expansion occurs at a time when data shows a 13% decline in pasture areas. This dynamic highlights the challenges facing food security, especially in developing countries, where shifts in grazing practices need to be adapted to enhance productivity efficiency.
Despite
the context of such challenges, the shift towards sustainable practices showcases the adaptability to this type of agriculture, where it is expected that total managed land area will rise by about 3.5 billion hectares by the end of the century. This expansion is considered essential for maintaining ecosystem balance and meeting the growing demand for food and agricultural products. It is important to note that improvements in land management demonstrate the potential to enhance global nutrition despite economic growth and population increase.
Land Use for Energy Generation
The growing demand for renewable energy represents a vital aspect of sustainability strategies. Predictions indicate that land use for renewable energy production, including solar and wind energy, will witness significant growth. For example, areas designated for wind energy are expected to exceed 300 million hectares by the end of the century. This shift in land uses underscores the need for substantial investments in renewable energy infrastructure.
Furthermore, demand for bioenergy is expected to continuously rise, indicating that land allocated for this type of energy is likely to increase significantly in the coming decades. Transformations in this context require supportive policies that balance economic development and the preservation of natural environments. Additionally, the gradual increase in areas designated for renewable energy highlights the challenges local communities may face in managing these transformations equitably and sustainably.
Carbon Dioxide Capture
Carbon capture operations are one of the most important solutions to address the challenges of climate change. The proposed Sky2050 model emphasizes the necessity of achieving the desired goal through developing new technologies that achieve high levels of retention and long-term sustainability. It is important to recognize that carbon capture efforts require integrated strategies that encompass all sectors, from agriculture to industry.
Moreover, the model indicates the vital relationship between increasing clean energy production and carbon capture, highlighting the importance of linking environmental policies with energy in the world. Balancing land use for food and energy production with the implementation of carbon capture technologies necessitates a comprehensive vision and flexible strategies that can adapt to both international and local variables. In this manner, a healthy and positive environment for climate change can be maintained.
Carbon Leakage Through Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions are key concepts in the effort to reduce carbon emissions, especially in the Sky 2050 scenario. Research shows that forests can significantly contribute to carbon absorption, as it is expected to reach over 3.7 billion tons of CO2 annually by mid-century. However, after that, this contribution may decline as many reforested areas will reach a maturity stage that leads to stabilization in carbon absorption. On the other hand, agricultural practices such as biochar are among the largest sources of long-term carbon retention, indicating the importance of focusing on diversity in available solutions.
It is also important to note that nature-based solutions are not limited to forests; they also encompass leading agricultural practices and grazing systems that can significantly contribute to reducing carbon emissions. For instance, biochar primarily contributes to carbon absorption and conversion processes, making it an intriguing option for farmers looking to apply new techniques to enhance agriculture and reduce emissions.
Global and Regional Land Use Challenges
The Sky 2050 scenario charts an ambitious path toward stabilizing the climate at 1.5 degrees Celsius, yet regional challenges associated with land use diversity remain. New options for land use are being placed in the United States, Europe, India, and elsewhere, which may cause competition among different types of agriculture and renewable energy needs. For example, research shows that most agricultural land in the United States will be used for beef production purposes, indicating a significant potential for conflict over the use of this land.
In
India faces increasing pressure from new land uses on water resources and agricultural land, while in Europe, the strain from green energy projects such as solar and wind power complicates the landscape of land use. These cases clearly highlight the importance of introducing new management methodologies that are sustainable and help balance the various land uses.
Sky 2050 Model and Its Impact on Environmental and Economic Interests
The Sky 2050 model is designed to help alleviate the pressures supporting renewable energy needs without negatively impacting agricultural production. Available data shows that implementing nature-based solutions can be done in a way that maintains food production while significantly improving food security. For instance, it is expected that food availability per person will increase by up to 161% between 2020 and 2100, even with continued deployment of new natural solutions.
However, some concerns must be taken into account, such as the impact of land use for growing crops and producing energy on biodiversity and water stocks. As pressure on land increases, the need for precise strategies to balance food production and sustainable energy grows stronger. These strategies could support the improvement of traditional agricultural practices by introducing new technologies that contribute to increased efficiency and resource sustainability.
Future Trends and the Role of Biodiversity in Sustainability
Future trends play a crucial role in achieving environmental goals by promoting nature-based solutions that focus on ecosystem restoration. Any land management plan must be sustainable and just, respecting biodiversity and ensuring fair use of land resources. The importance of biodiversity lies in its foundation for environmental cohesion and its enhancement of ecosystem resilience to climate change.
Future trends require greater attention, including enforcing regulations that protect biodiversity and shaping indicators that reflect its state and future directions. This can be achieved through cooperation between governments and local communities to ensure the sustainability of natural resource use. Innovation and investment in new technologies can significantly contribute to supporting a deeper understanding of environmental changes and responding to them effectively.
Direct Air Capture and Carbon Storage (DACCS) Technologies
Direct Air Capture and Carbon Storage (DACCS) methods are considered advanced solutions to address the challenges of global warming. These technologies aim to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it safely, which significantly contributes to reducing carbon emissions. Although the costs of implementing these technologies are still higher than many traditional methods, they are expected to compete with other options in the future, especially in light of potential developments in carbon policies and global markets.
Implementing DACCS requires significant investment in infrastructure and technology, meaning that governments and private entities must work together to develop sustainable solutions that take into account environmental and economic impacts. For example, these technologies could be integrated with renewable energy systems, increasing land use efficiency and contributing to emission reduction goals.
Sustainable Land Management Approach
Land management faces multiple challenges, requiring the development of sustainable strategies to maintain the environment and support agriculture. The sustainable approach emphasizes the importance of integrating practices such as land governance and strategic planning to achieve a balance between human needs and biodiversity conservation. Utilizing techniques such as diverse crops and organic farming is among the best methods to enhance agricultural production sustainably.
For example, using cover crops can improve soil fertility and reduce the use of chemical fertilizers, thereby help minimize excessive environmental impact. Additionally, rehabilitating degraded lands and increasing vegetation cover can aid in carbon storage and enhance ecosystem sustainability. It is essential for local communities to be involved in developing these strategies to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability.
Challenges
Opportunities in Land Use
Land use faces significant challenges represented by competition for limited spaces between agriculture, energy, and environmental conservation. This arises from the increasing population growth and rising demand for food and energy resources. Achieving a balance between these needs requires a careful assessment of land resources and agricultural capabilities. These assessments should rely on local and regional data, taking into account climate changes and their impacts on agricultural production.
For example, increased investment in renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind energy can lead to more effective use of new lands, enhancing economic and environmental sustainability. If land management strategies are better integrated with agricultural and climate policies, they can make a noticeable impact on improving the environmental situation.
Cooperation and Policies Required to Achieve Climate Goals
Working towards achieving climate goals requires integrated cooperation between governments, the private sector, and local communities. Policies should promote land use in a way that protects the environment and supports economic production. This requires establishing effective pricing systems for carbon emissions and compliance with environmental standards. Studies indicate that creating carbon markets could provide incentives for the private sector to invest in sustainable technologies.
Furthermore, providing appropriate incentives for farmers and landowners is an essential part of the transition to sustainable agriculture. These incentives should be designed to serve not only environmental goals but also achieve the economic interests of farmers. By providing appropriate financial and technical support, the shift towards sustainable land management practices can be enhanced, leading to improved quality of life and increased productivity.
Focus on Technological Innovation
The transition to sustainable land use requires technological innovation in several areas, ranging from smart agriculture to water resource management. Innovations such as precision agriculture and the use of big data may help improve resource use efficiency and reduce waste. This technology relies on environmental information and provides accurate analyses that assist farmers in making appropriate decisions and tracking agricultural performance.
Another example is the use of cloud technologies for storing and analyzing agricultural data, which facilitates the sharing of information between farmers and agricultural experts. This can contribute to improved coordination among various active roles in the agricultural supply chain, enhancing work efficiency. These changes require strong commitment from governments to support innovation, as well as educational strategies to train farmers.
Interplay of Climate Change and Environmental Effects
The impacts of climate change are significantly increasing, threatening the balance of the ecosystem. Climate changes can lead to land degradation, fluctuations in temperatures, and extreme weather events such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Studies such as the one by Hsiang and colleagues (2017) indicate the economic damages resulting from climate change, emphasizing that the United States alone faced losses estimated in the billions due to climate change. The impact of climate change is not limited to the economies of countries; it affects all aspects of life on planet Earth, including ecological balance and biodiversity.
For instance, agriculture is significantly affected by climate change. Reports have warned that food production could decline by as much as 10% in some areas by 2050, increasing the risk of food shortages. The study conducted by Rezaei and colleagues (2023) addressed the impacts of climate change on crop yields and found that agriculture in many areas faces new challenges that must be dealt with in sustainable ways.
To mitigate risks, it is essential to promote nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, which help reduce carbon emissions and provide habitats for biodiversity. Research also highlights the importance of developing sustainable agricultural systems that conserve environmental resources and do not negatively impact the climate.
Solutions
Natural Climate Solutions
Natural climate solutions are considered an effective tool to address the challenges of climate change. These solutions involve using ecosystems to enhance mitigation of the effects of climate change, such as reforesting, preserving wetlands, and cultivating crops in harmony with the natural environment. The report by Griscom and colleagues (2017) emphasized the significant benefits of nature-based solutions that can contribute to achieving global carbon reduction targets.
Studies show that implementing natural solutions, such as reforestation, can lead to substantial carbon storage, aiding in the achievement of mitigation goals. For instance, one forest can act as a carbon reservoir, maintaining ecological balance and supporting biodiversity. Additionally, reforestation provides multiple benefits to local communities, including improved water and air quality, increased biodiversity, and enhanced opportunities for ecotourism.
Therefore, all institutions, from governments to NGOs, must work to promote and implement natural solutions projects more extensively. Achieving international cooperation in this area is crucial for maximizing the benefits of these solutions. By enhancing investment in biodiversity and ecosystems, we can better face climate challenges and achieve the desired sustainable development.
Carbon Capture Technology and Integration with Renewable Energy Sources
Many countries are seeking to utilize carbon capture technology as part of their strategies to confront climate change. Among these technologies, Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is considered one of the most prominent solutions. According to a study by Donnison and colleagues (2020), BECCS technology can provide multiple benefits, in addition to reducing carbon emissions by integrating renewable energy with agriculture and enhancing crop productivity.
The core idea of BECCS technology is to use biomass as an energy source while capturing the carbon emitted during the combustion process and storing it underground. This technology can prevent large amounts of carbon from entering the atmosphere, contributing to mitigating the effects of climate change. It also provides new opportunities for farmers to increase their income by producing renewable energy while reducing carbon emissions.
By applying this technology more broadly, sustainable development can be achieved and reliance on fossil fuels can be reduced. It is also essential to invest more resources in research on the effectiveness of this technology and to improve its applications to reduce costs and enhance environmental outcomes. Incorporating these solutions into climate policies will contribute to improving the prospects for achieving global climate goals.
Food Policies and Their Impact on Ecosystems
Food policies play a key role in how agricultural activities affect climate change. Achieving sustainable increases in crop productivity requires advancements in policies that support environmental agriculture and sustainable practices. According to a FAO study (2018), achieving sustainable food security is a central element in addressing the challenges of climate change.
Changes in agricultural land use patterns affect the climate by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, due to the shift towards cultivating crops with higher water needs or using unsustainable agricultural methods. Therefore, policies that promote the use of sustainable agricultural systems are essential. On the other hand, these policies also enhance biodiversity by supporting practices that protect natural environments and reduce pressure on resources.
It is crucial to focus on developing nutritional strategies that conserve natural resources and preserve biodiversity worldwide. Prioritizing local and inclusive food systems contributes to reducing emissions, enhances public health, and positively reflects environmental changes. Governments should work on developing quality strategies to be included in their national policies and monitor the achievement of sustainable development goals while transitioning to more sustainable practices in the food sector.
Link
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1393327/full
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