In a visual analysis conducted by The Washington Post, it was revealed that fighters in Gaza fired a barrage of rockets towards Israel and towards the Al-Ahli hospital just 44 seconds before the explosion that killed at least 100 people, according to the visual analysis. The newspaper was able to determine the location of the rocket launches near the hospital in Gaza City, which the Israeli forces claimed was the location of a misfired rocket that landed on the hospital grounds. Experts confirmed that the rockets from that barrage would have been able to reach the hospital in time for the explosion.
Analysis of Videos and Photos
The analysis of videos and photos, along with experts reviewing images taken at the explosion site, provides indirect evidence that may support Israel and the U.S. government’s claims that a rogue rocket fired by a Palestinian armed group was responsible for the October 17 explosion.
Lack of Direct Evidence
At the same time, no visual evidence has emerged showing a rocket hitting the hospital grounds, and the evidence reviewed by the newspaper does not exclude the possibility that an unseen projectile fired from another location struck the hospital grounds.
Expert Analysis
None of the experts consulted by the newspaper could confidently state what type of weapon struck the hospital grounds or who fired it. However, munitions experts agreed that the damage to the hospital is consistent with a rocket strike. They said it is not consistent with an airstrike, which would have caused much larger devastation, or an artillery strike, which would have left large shrapnel and likely would not have produced the large fireball visible in the videos.
Analysis of the Viral Video
Additionally, the newspaper’s analysis discovered that the video filmed and aired on Al Jazeera, which was cited by both the Israeli and U.S. governments as evidence that a failed rocket landed on the hospital grounds, in fact shows a rocket being launched from a location several miles away in Israel, near an Iron Dome defense battery. Experts stated that the widely circulated video likely shows a missile intercepted by the Iron Dome colliding with a rocket more than three miles from the hospital and may have no relation to the hospital explosion.
Comment from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the specific findings of the newspaper, including the location of the potential rocket launch inside Israel. The spokesperson stated they have “high confidence” that the hospital explosion was caused by a rocket fired by “Palestinian fighters,” based on intercepted, unpublished phone calls and an analysis of the damage at the hospital and four publicly available videos. He noted that the video aired by Al Jazeera was one of the four videos they relied upon but they did not share the other videos.
Lack of Direct Evidence
The lack of direct evidence has made it difficult to conclusively prove who fired the projectile that exploded at the Al-Ahli hospital and highlights the limitations of trying to investigate remotely in war zones without on-the-ground access.
Hospital Explosion
A video filmed from a building located about 500 feet south of the hospital shows a loud sound of the projectile passing rapidly before the explosion. The explosion resulted in the deaths of many people at the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City on October 17. The newspaper sent this video and another showing the moment of the explosion to sound experts for review. Rob Maher, a professor at Montana State University, stated that the increase in frequency produced by the incoming projectile indicates it is accelerating. Acceleration could mean that the projectile was falling vertically, gaining speed from gravity, and he added that this would be more consistent with a malfunctioning rocket falling from the sky, according to acoustic analysis, rather than an object moving horizontally.
Impact
Hospital
The explosion caused a massive fire to break out in the hospital courtyard, where hundreds of people were taking shelter in hopes of avoiding airstrikes. A video filmed immediately after the explosion showed several bodies scattered in the courtyard.
Impact
Photos showed a review by the Palestinian police’s demining and explosives unit of a crater caused by the explosion that night. The day after the strike, Palestinian journalists and civilians began posting videos and images of the scene. There were no signs of munitions that caused the explosion in the photos.
Technical Analysis
More than half a dozen experts who reviewed photos of the scene stated that the lack of significant damage resulting from the explosion, such as building collapses, along with the small size and shape of the crater, ruled out the possibility of an aerial strike like those conducted by Israel in other parts of Gaza since October 7.
Analysis of the Circulated Video
The paper’s analysis concluded that the projectile depicted in the video aired by Al Jazeera on the night of the explosion was, in fact, fired from a point inside Israel near a potential location for the Iron Dome defense system. Experts stated it was likely an interceptor missile unrelated to the hospital explosion.
Experts’ Commentary
Five experts who reviewed the videos stated that the projectile appeared to be a missile captured by the Israeli Iron Dome system based on its behavior and launch site. They noted it showed a clear non-ballistic trajectory expected from a missile controlled by the Iron Dome.
No Relationship Between the Projectile and the Hospital Explosion
The five experts agreed that there was no evidence connecting the potential projectile explosion to the hospital explosion and that the two events were likely unrelated.
Timestamp Analysis
The projectile exploded in the air approximately 15 seconds after launch, having changed direction and veered westward, with the potential explosion site of the projectile originating from the vicinity of the suspected Iron Dome location pinpointed to a point about one mile inside Israeli territory and about 3.5 miles east of the hospital.
Impact on the Hospital
The projectile exploded in the air approximately 15 seconds after launch, having changed direction and veered westward, with the potential explosion site of the projectile originating from the vicinity of the suspected Iron Dome location pinpointed to a point about one mile inside Israeli territory and about 3.5 miles east of the hospital.
Experts’ Analysis
Markus Schiller, a missile and rocket expert based in Munich, estimated that it would take between 25 to 45 seconds for a standard Qassam rocket used by Palestinian armed groups to reach the hospital from the launch site, depending on factors including launch angle. Frans Dalnoki-Vereis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and a fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, indicated that his findings align with Schiller’s, estimating that rockets would take between 26 and 37 seconds to reach the hospital.
The Explosion
A video from a building located about 500 feet south of the hospital captured the loud sound of the projectile rushing by before the explosion. The explosion resulted in the death of many people at the Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City on October 17. The paper sent this video and another showing the moment of the explosion to sound experts for review. Rob Maher, a professor at Montana State University, stated that the increasing frequency produced by the incoming projectile indicates that it is accelerating. Acceleration could mean that the projectile was falling vertically, gaining speed from gravity, and he added that this would be more consistent with a malfunctioning rocket falling from the sky, according to the sound analysis, rather than a body moving horizontally.
Effects
Showed
The images review the landmine and explosives dismantling unit in the Palestinian police of a crater caused by the explosion that night. The day after the strike, Palestinian journalists and civilians began posting videos and images of the scene. No traces of the munitions that caused the explosion were visible in the pictures.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/10/26/gaza-hospital-blast-evidence-israel-hamas/
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