Recent polls conducted by NBC/Des Moines Register/Mediacom indicate that former President Donald Trump’s lead in Iowa, the first state to hold primary elections, has increased by eight points over the past two months. The polls found that more than half of Republican voters in Iowa support Trump, reinforcing his strong lead in the GOP’s internal competition, which would be historically unprecedented if he were to lose the nomination.
Key Facts
According to the poll, 51% of Republican voters in Iowa intend to vote for Trump in the election scheduled for January 15, while 19% plan to support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and 16% intend to vote for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Trump’s Expanding Lead in Iowa
Despite losing Iowa to Ted Cruz in 2016, and despite DeSantis directing significant resources to Iowa, where he visited all 99 counties and received an endorsement from GOP Governor Kim Reynolds, Trump has expanded his lead in the state. Iowa is seen as the state that sets the tone for the primary election cycle and can influence voters in other states.
Voter Optimism for Trump’s Victory
According to the poll, 73% of participants believe Trump can defeat Joe Biden in the general election, despite his legal troubles. This reflects an increase in confidence in Trump’s ability to win compared to a poll conducted in October, where the figure was 65%. The percentage of participants who think legal challenges make it nearly impossible for Trump to win against Biden dropped from 32% two months ago to 24% in the latest poll.
Trump Supporters’ Enthusiasm
The polls show that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic about voting for him compared to supporters of DeSantis and Haley. 45% of Trump supporters say they are “very excited” to vote for him, while 16% of DeSantis supporters and 21% of Haley supporters say the same.
Main Background
The polls indicate that Trump has widened the gap between him and DeSantis over the year, as DeSantis’s fortunes have declined nationally. In January, DeSantis was trailing Trump by about 10 points, but he now lags behind by approximately 46 points. Haley threatens DeSantis’s second-place position, as she is only one point behind him. Trump’s lead has increased since he announced his candidacy in November of last year, despite facing four criminal charges and several civil cases against him, including a fraud trial in New York. Trump also leads national polls against Biden, showing a two-point advantage over Biden according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
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