By: Christopher Wolf and William J. Ripple
Introduction
The United Nations climate change conferences wrapped up last month, and the small successes achieved could not mask its failure to address the escalating climate disaster. Among the key highlights of COP28 were commitments from over 120 countries to double their renewable hydroelectric capacity by 2030 and several countries pledging a total of $700 million to the loss and damage fund, which compensates vulnerable communities following climate disasters. Nearly 200 countries agreed to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner.”
Conference Failure to Address the Disaster
Unfortunately, the conference did not provide a timeline or guarantee that the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement – to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius – will be realized. Incredibly, some countries calling for a reduction in fossil fuel use, including the United States, are actually planning to increase their oil and gas production. “Transition” appears to mean for oil-producing countries to continue operations until demand declines. The weak response to this impending disaster is a grave error; it is time for bold and uncontroversial action.
Little Hope for Radical Change
COP28 offers little hope for radical transformation away from the current stagnant efforts to avert disaster. Many apparent successes come with worrying caveats. For instance, China and India, among the largest climate polluters, did not sign on to the commitment to double their renewable hydroelectric capacity, possibly due to language hostile to coal. Additionally, some athletes earn more than their national commitments to the loss and damage fund at COP28. These pledges are trivial, representing a very small fraction of the climate-related damages faced by developing nations annually. Worse still, the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels carries no legal obligation, does not specify timelines or investment goals, and astonishingly ignores calls to abandon fossil fuels supported by over 100 countries.
Global Leaders Need Bold Action
“Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in uncharted territory,” we wrote in our 2023 report on the state of the climate. Therefore, we are deeply concerned that some policymakers and global leaders have strayed from their course in addressing climate change. During the conference, the COP28 President criticized the notion of phasing out fossil fuels. COP decisions require full consensus, so they can easily be watered down by countries that profit substantially from fossil fuels.
Climate Emergency and Future Challenges
After decades of inadequate action, we now face a climate emergency. In 2023 alone, numerous climate disasters struck, including unprecedented heatwaves, massive wildfires, storms, and floods. For example, climate change is likely to have increased the severity of Storm Daniel, which claimed thousands of lives last September, primarily in Libya. Extreme heat was a particular concern for migrant workers operating at the COP28 venues, with reports of outdoor workers facing temperatures reaching 42 degrees Celsius (107 degrees Fahrenheit), which can be deadly. As climate change worsens and we delve deeper into uncharted territory, some scientists warn that we are on track for a billion climate-related deaths, while others express concern over even more catastrophic outcomes.
Insufficient Climate Measures from Global Leaders
On
Despite decades of promises made at conferences like COP28, global leaders have provided very little in terms of mitigating climate change, shirking responsibility that will echo for centuries. Instead, fossil fuel emissions have risen, now nearing record levels. The rapid growth of carbon dioxide emissions linked to coal raises particular concern as coal accounts for about 40 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Coal emissions are currently at levels close to record highs.
Escalating Global Fossil Fuel Production
As shown in the chart below, many major fossil fuel-producing countries plan to significantly increase their production by 2030, although there are some exceptions. Future projections for global fossil fuel emissions look equally bleak. For example, the United States plans to increase annual oil production by approximately 5.2 exajoules – equivalent to about 900 million barrels of oil, despite a corresponding decline in coal production. The largest expected increase in fossil fuel production is in India, by about 10.7 exajoules in coal-related energy (1.86 billion barrels of oil equivalent). These increases contribute to widening the “production gap” of fossil fuels between our current path and what is necessary to limit global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius.
Warning of a Troubling Future
With the gap in fossil fuel production continuing to rise and the challenge of achieving a 1.5 degrees Celsius limit on warming, temperatures are expected to rise by 2.8 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Alongside the lack of agreement on phasing out fossil fuels at COP28, this suggests that some global leaders may still not recognize the climate crisis. Instead, we face a troubling future governed by climate policies not grounded in science.
Challenges in Understanding and Addressing the Issue
The wealth of oil-rich countries and the affluent who benefit greatly from the current situation is only part of our plight. Understanding the magnitude of climate impacts – such as simultaneous global crop failures, the destruction of low-lying islands, severe geopolitical conflicts, and hundreds of millions of deaths this century – presents another challenge. Perhaps the only silver lining to the increasing frequency of climate-related disasters is that awareness of these catastrophic risks may be on the rise.
The Need for Genuine Leadership
The first step in addressing a problem is to understand the problem itself. The growing gap in fossil fuel production and the lack of significant developments at COP28 (and most previous conferences) suggest that some leaders and policymakers may still not grasp the seriousness of the climate crisis, although many countries have called for a phase-out of fossil fuels. COP conferences focus the world’s attention on the accelerating global warming disaster. This is important but not sufficient. We need effective solutions, including forming alliances among willing nations, implementing carbon pricing, reducing support for fossil fuels, and significantly investing in renewable energy to render fossil fuels obsolete. Any real strategy for tackling global warming must go beyond words and votes – it must include a comprehensive implementation plan with specific goals, explicit measures, and mechanisms to ensure accountability for outcomes, with a focus on social justice. This will require genuine leadership.
This is an opinion and analysis piece, and the views expressed by the author or authors do not necessarily reflect the views of Scientific American.
Christopher Wolf is a research scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates (TERA).
William
J. Ripple is a distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University, the director of the Global Scientists Coalition, and a co-author of the global scientists’ warning on the climate emergency.
Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/real-climate-solutions-will-take-real-leadership/
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