Forecasts warn of the complexities of sea life in nets – A year ahead

A computational model uses sea surface temperatures to predict when whales and turtles are likely to get entangled in fishing gear.

Rope Predictions

Studies indicate that whales can suffer injuries from ropes used in the fishing industry. These injuries can cause damage to the fins, mouths, and tails of whales, preventing them from diving and feeding and sometimes leading to their deaths. To avoid this, local fishers use sea surface temperatures in the area to make monthly decisions about whether or not they can go crab fishing, based on whether the cold, nutrient-rich water current – which attracts whales – has been pushed toward the shore. This phenomenon is measured using a gauge called the Habitat Compression Index (HCI). When this value drops below a certain threshold, whales are likely to move towards the shore, and crab fishers suspend their catch. But this does not leave much time for fishers to adapt to the economic impacts of the fishing closure.

Turtle Protection

Researchers studied floating fish catch in another area and used unusual sea surface temperatures from the past six months to determine whether sea turtles were at risk of getting caught in nets in the same area. Turtles tend to track warm waters, so if the waters where people are fishing are warmer, the fishing industry may be closed. “When turtles are caught in those nets, they can suffocate or be prevented from moving and feeding,” according to researcher Brodie. The team found that global sea surface temperature predictions could be accurately used to forecast the need to close fishing to protect turtles during the heatwave in 2015, up to 11.5 months in advance.

Environmental Forecasts

These findings bolster optimism about reliable environmental predictions in areas where high-resolution local ocean models may not be available. “As marine resource users, managers, and communities make their decisions, they need relevant, timely, and reliable information,” particularly amid climate change and increasing ocean heatwaves, according to researcher Mills.

References:
Brodie, S. et al. Nature Commun. 14, 7701 (2023).

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03870-1

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