At the main climate conference COP28, the primary negotiations will aim to address how countries plan to rectify the shortcomings in their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as outlined in the “global stocktake.”
What does that mean?
The global stocktake generally refers to a comprehensive assessment of how far countries have progressed in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, which commits countries to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
The process consists of three components. The first phase, gathering all relevant information, started two years ago. The second phase, assessing that data, finished this summer.
The final task – responding to this assessment – concludes at COP28. This is the challenging part.
According to the terms of the Paris Agreement, countries must conduct this exercise every five years.
What is happening at COP28?
Negotiators in Dubai are discussing what countries should do with this report, which has given strict instructions to maintain any hope of achieving the 1.5-degree target: first, cut 43% of greenhouse gas emissions in this decade (compared to 2019 levels), and then achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
However, there are deep divisions on how to achieve this.
“The first component is to look at the gaps,” said Tom Evans, who is tracking the global stocktake negotiations in Dubai for the E3G organization. “Secondly, what do you do about those gaps? This is where the political flashpoints are.”
What might this response look like?
A lot of things, but the idea is for all parties from the Paris Agreement – representing nearly 200 countries – to agree on a coherent plan by the end of the summit.
Once again, it’s not easy.
It is expected that the document will consider what went wrong and look to the future with guidelines on how to correct those shortcomings. This roadmap should include a wishlist for climate action – everything from reducing emissions to preparing communities for the impacts of climate change to funding for both.
Do words on paper really matter?
Yes, for several reasons.
First, clear guidance will provide countries as they prepare their next plans for combating climate change. The Paris Agreement requires governments to submit new plans by COP30, which will be held in Brazil in 2025.
Second, those words send a strong signal to markets, local governments, and others. If nearly 200 countries agree on a text that states it is essential to phase out coal, investors will take the cue.
With the global stocktake, “we have the opportunity to make a set of decisions … that provide the clarity business needs to invest in the future,” according to Morgan.
The outcome will also test the integrity of the Paris Agreement. These periodic check-ins and requirements to update climate plans aim to ensure that everyone is ramping up efforts over time.
“The effectiveness of the Paris Agreement is on the line,” according to Evans.
What do countries want?
The final outcome must determine what to do about fossil fuels that are causing global warming, as well as the efforts to prepare for a warmer future and steps to ensure that resources are available for poorer countries to do so as well.
“No one is trying to blow the whole thing up,” according to Evans.
However, that doesn’t mean that countries are close to reaching an agreement.
Urgent calls for “phasing out” fossil fuels – a contentious term – are particularly controversial.
Many developing countries say they need more financial support to back ambitious language on fossil fuels and other emission reduction efforts.
At the same time, the European Union, the United States, and climate-vulnerable countries are trying to ensure that new industries are not exempted from the plans and cover all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide – which China recently announced.
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The other side, several countries that rely on oil and gas exports – such as Russia and Saudi Arabia – are pushing for the continued use of fossil fuels.
What is the role of the United Arab Emirates here?
The United Arab Emirates is hosting the conference and should lead the global review to its conclusion. At some point, the officials will draft a text for the countries to accept or reject.
The COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber – who also heads the state oil company of the UAE – has repeatedly insisted that he will seek “the most ambitious possible response” to the global review. However, he has not been clear about how this will be achieved.
Nevertheless, Evans stated: “They realize that this is the key element of their conference. The shine of those early promises will fade, and they will need to produce something.”
How are the negotiations going?
There are already some bad signs.
As of Monday evening, a detailed draft text had not been prepared, despite spending about 10 hours in closed-door talks on Sunday.
A text outlining potential “building blocks” was released on Friday, but it is a general summary that leaves all the tough questions unanswered. Regarding the energy sector, for instance, options include “reducing/eliminating fossil fuels” and “reducing/eliminating/no new coal.” In other words: all options are on the table.
What comes next?
In the coming days, negotiators will try to reach an agreement on as many parts of the text as possible, but their heads will tackle the toughest questions in the second week of the conference.
The discussions this week “will inevitably lead to some very important political questions for ministers to resolve in the second week,” according to Wiersman, the EU’s chief negotiator. “Exactly what those questions are, we can’t entirely predict – but we anticipate that how to handle fossil fuels will be at the top of the list.”
Technically, the deadline is December 12, but if previous conferences are any guide, additional work is possible.
With permission from E&E News, Politico, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
Zia Weiss is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul.
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