By: Zak Krizer on December 1, 2023, at 12:22 AM
Introduction
Hello baseball fans, if you don’t declare your allegiance to the Texas Rangers or Arizona Diamondbacks, the time you’ve been waiting for since around September has finally arrived: Shohei Ohtani is a free agent. And there are a few other players as well.
The star who plays two positions is soon to add the title of American League MVP to what is arguably the most anticipated offseason ever. Despite an elbow injury that will prevent him from playing as a pitcher in 2024, he is expected to sign the richest deal in American baseball history, and his presence will dominate the free agency landscape.
In addition to Ohtani, there is another new Japanese talent to watch, an exciting class of standout starting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Blake Snell, and a very weak group of hitters that competing teams will be vying for in the coming months before spring training begins.
The Top 25 MLB Free Agents for 2023-24
Below, we have ranked the top 25 MLB free agents for the 2023-24 class based on their expected immediate impact (subjectively), along with some key metrics and information from 2023.
Their age as of June 30, 2024, which is the common indicator of a player’s age for the season.
For hitters: Their OPS+, which shows how their adjusted offensive performance compares in terms of league average, where 110 means 10% better and 90 means 10% worse.
For pitchers: Their ERA+, which is the same but for adjusted earned run average.
WAR for 2023, according to FanGraphs calculations.
Qualified offer: If a player’s team offered a qualified offer for 2023, which is a one-year contract valued at $20.325 million this year. The team receives a compensatory draft pick if the player rejects the offer and leaves.
Let’s spark the hot stove.
1. Shohei Ohtani, Two-Way Player
Age: 29 | OPS+: 184 | ERA+: 142 | WAR: 9.1 | Rejected qualified offer
Why you want him: Why wouldn’t you want him? At a basic level, as a reminder, Shohei Ohtani has recently been the best hitter and pitcher in the American League, having started 23 games as a pitcher with a 3.14 earned run average and a slew of strikeouts. From a broader perspective, the next team that convinces Ohtani to don its jersey will have the chance to craft a squad that helps him reach the playoffs for the first time, garner Ohtani’s instant fan appreciation, and possibly place their logo on the future Hall of Fame honor roll. This is likely the race for the rest of Ohtani’s career in the American League.
There are complexities to the allure, of course. Ohtani’s elbow was injured in the second half of this year, and he won’t provide the pitching side of his value until 2025. There are legitimate, though sadly frustrating, questions that can be raised about his future on the mound. The next time he plays in the MLB, he will be after his 30th birthday. No one else has been able to handle such a rigorous and quasi-superhuman workload at any age. It will be harder for him to maintain that.
If and when Ohtani begins to redistribute his workload, he will likely focus more on hitting. This is based on his MLB track record thus far and also on general baseball truths about power and value. Since his debut in 2018, he has the sixth-best OPS+ in the MLB (minimum 2,000 plate appearances), and he can enhance his game’s hitting aspect more easily with running (which he already does well) and possibly defense if he ever decides to cut back on pitching. This will be a serious consideration in these negotiations, but it doesn’t alter the general necessity of pursuing the most exciting and unique free agent in baseball history.
What
What it will take to acquire him: The bidding is expected to start, even with Ohtani’s injury, around $500 million, in the range that ensures it breaks most or all of the record numbers for American baseball contracts. Currently, his long-time Angels teammate Mike Trout has the richest total contract in history, worth $426.5 million. Aaron Judge has the largest free-agent contract in history at nine years and $360 million. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for the highest average annual value in American baseball history at $43.3 million. For example, a 12-year, $520 million deal for Ohtani would match the record for average annual value and break other numbers.
It likely won’t be that simple after Ohtani’s elbow injury. Teams interested – which will certainly include the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers – are likely to craft creative proposals that account for the risk that his dual skills may not fully return or could remain intermittent due to the injury. Ohtani’s final deal will likely include significant other levers beyond guaranteed years and guaranteed dollars.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Starting Pitcher
Age: 25 | ERA 1.21 in Japan’s NPB
Why teams want him: At just 25 and perhaps the most proven Japanese player in Major League Baseball, Yamamoto is a potential top-of-the-rotation arm upon arriving in the United States. Yamamoto is listed at 5 feet 10 inches but delivers a fastball that reaches the mid-80s and a devastating splitter. He has put up astonishing numbers in Japan’s NPB, the second-best professional league in the world. Over seven seasons and 172 games, he has a career ERA of 1.82, which is a favorable comparison to everyone and to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets, who had an ERA of 2.85 in NPB before achieving success in MLB in 2023 – his 2.98 ERA was good for a 142 ERA+ and likely placed him third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting and garnered some votes for the Cy Young Award.
The 25-year-old Yamamoto, along with improvements in scouting and pitching data that give MLB teams more confidence in how his skills will translate in America, will drive a heated bidding war that may include every major market team. New York Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman personally scouted him during a no-hitter (one of the two he threw that season), and many other teams also sent personnel to watch him.
What it will take to acquire him: The seven-year, $155 million deal signed by Masahiro Tanaka with the Yankees, which was also signed before his age-25 season, sets the standard here. This is the richest deal any Japanese player has received upon coming to MLB, and Yamamoto is expected to surpass it.
3. Aaron Nola, Starting Pitcher
Age: 31 | ERA+: 96 | WAR: 3.9 | Declined qualifying offer
Why the Phillies want him: Aaron Nola is a strong arm at the top of the rotation who has played for the Philadelphia Phillies since the start of his career. He presents a classic test case for the success of pitchers. His ERA numbers year after year (4.63 in 2021, 3.25 in 2022, 4.46 in 2023) depict a picture of significant instability, but anyone who watches him knows that is not exactly the case, as he has often been a victim of poor Philadelphia defense.
Indications suggest
The key numbers for Nola – those focusing on strikeouts, walks, and earned runs – indicate that he is a steady arm you’d be happy to have as one of the best players in the starting lineup of a team competing for a championship. However, 2023 represents a real decline in this regard, allowing for more earned runs and not looking sharp enough in his pitching.
Ultimately, he has been the best among qualifying free agents with an MLB record because compared to other options in this upper tier, Nola appears as a steady metronome keeping time through a direct line to the lineup card. His velocity remains consistent, he still has a fantastic curveball, and only Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara have benefitted from more innings pitched over the last three seasons. The primary concerns, however, overlap with that. Thanks to Philadelphia’s success in October, Nola has tallied a total of 447 and 1/3 innings over the past few seasons.
What it will take to get him: Philadelphia is still a team competing to win now and acted accordingly with this reported signing. Nola’s size and career path resemble Jon Lester’s signing of a $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs prior to 2015. He could surpass Carlos Rodón’s lesser experienced $162 million from last season.
4. Blake Snell, Starting Pitcher
Age: 31 | ERA+: 182 | WAR: 4.1 | Declined Qualifying Offer
Why you want him: Well, he is likely to win the National League Cy Young Award. That would join his 2018 American League Cy Young Award on Snell’s shelf and make him part of an elite group; he would be only the seventh player to win this award in both leagues.
The problem: Between those two bright and award-worthy campaigns, Snell has played at a rate of 3.85 ERA (104 ERA+) while being primarily a source of average, but the issue of poor command in his stellar 2023 season has simply been overshadowed by the positive traits. Snell led the American League in walks allowed (meaning he permitted the most) yet managed to overcome that by increasing the second-best strikeout rate in the league and benefiting from the third-lowest contact batting average on balls in play. Certainly, his excellent skills play a role in restricting effective contact when players hit the ball, but the extremes in this department generally trend towards the mean. Overall, Snell enters free agency after a remarkable season, but most teams may not trust him.
What it will take to get him: The recent Seattle Mariners deal with Robbie Ray is perhaps informative. After a season in which he won the Cy Young Award and few bought into similar future production, Ray signed for five years and $115 million. This seems to be the baseline for Snell, who has a more impressive track record than Ray, even if it’s painful to watch him send balls to the outer reaches of acceptable strike zone territory.
5. Cody Bellinger, Outfielder
Age: 28 | OPS+: 133 | WAR: 4.1 | Declined Qualifying Offer
Why you want him: The former National League MVP benefited significantly from a one-year audition with the Chicago Cubs. After two consecutive dreadful seasons in Los Angeles, he returned to Wrigley Field with a .307 batting average, 26 home runs, and his usual stellar defense.
The issue is that he did it in a confusing manner. His power return did not come with an increase in exit velocity. He faced general struggles against fastballs and built most of his impressive offensive output on slow pitches and sliders. This isn’t inherently a bad thing, but it means he has developed into a different type of hitter than we originally knew him. It’s likely that this version doesn’t have much flexibility to remain a good player while pitchers adjust.
And with
That said, Bellinger has not yet turned 28, and he is one of the few players available in distinguished core playing positions. Even with a significant downturn in offense, his defense in center field could be crucial for competing teams.
What it will take to acquire him: Bellinger can certainly establish that he should surpass George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the top bidders for his services eventually approach $200 million in a very tough market for clubs seeking hitters.
6. Jordan Montgomery, Starting Pitcher
Age: 31 | ERA+: 138 | WAR: 4.3
Why you want him: No one has done more to elevate his value since the 2023 trade deadline. He followed up a promising first half with the St. Louis Cardinals with an outstanding performance in Texas. The 6-foot-6 lefty led the Rangers through a tough second half and then shined in the playoffs, making it clear he has more to offer than his previous employers showcased.
The jump in Montgomery’s level is attributed to improved curveball and the best velocity of his career. These are good enough reasons to make teams believe there’s a sustainable spot for him as a No. 2 starter in this long-ignored arm.
What it will take to acquire him: It may take a serious battle to pry Montgomery from a team he loves, but on objective terms, he seems like a great candidate for a Kevin Gausman-style contract – five years, $110 million – or something in that ballpark.
7. Sonny Gray, Starting Pitcher
Age: 34 | ERA+: 154 | WAR: 5.3 | Declined qualifying offer
Why you want him: It may be deceptive due to Gray’s relatively advanced age and his location with the Minnesota Twins, but the veteran’s 2023 season might be the most impressive of this group. Gray has never relied on overpowering velocity, instead using a variety of pitches to limit targets and navigate through innings easily, all the way to an ERA of 2.79. Since 2019, there have only been eight pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings
Source: https://www.aol.com/top-mlb-free-agents-2023-215749356.html
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