Regarding President Vladimir Putin, winning the upcoming elections will be an easy task compared to the tough challenges that await him in the future. His comprehensive grip on the political landscape in Russia has ensured another six-year presidential term and the extension of his decades-long rule.
The War in Ukraine
What Putin expected to be a swift campaign in 2022 to establish Kremlin control over its neighbor has turned into a grinding war that is exhausting much in terms of human losses and depleting Russia’s resources. Although Russia has prevented the Ukrainian army from achieving any significant gains during the summer offensive, the Kremlin does not have enough manpower and equipment to launch major campaigns on its own.
Tensions with the West
Despite Moscow’s hope that Western assistance to Ukraine would wane amid growing war fatigue and election campaigns in the United States and other Western countries, Washington and its allies have pledged to continue supporting Kyiv as long as necessary. Both the United States and the European Union have also committed that the war between Israel and Hamas will not divert their attention from helping Ukraine.
Other Economic Challenges
Shifting energy exports to China and India has helped offset the loss of access to lucrative European markets, and Russian industries have found new import channels to circumvent the technological restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union.
Political Unrest and Dysfunction
Polls show that Putin’s approval rating stands at around 80 percent, reflecting the absence of competition in a tightly controlled political system and the adherence to the regime amid the war. However, the total control that Putin seems to possess appears illusory in light of the June rebellion by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Although the government denied involvement, the death of Prigozhin and his top aides in a mysterious plane crash in August was widely seen as a retaliatory act that contributed to restoring Putin’s credibility among the elites. Yet, the fragility of control in the Kremlin is very evident.
The disturbances at an airport in Russia’s Dagestan region, which targeted a flight from Israel, challenged the narrative that ethnic and religious groups coexist harmoniously in Russia and weakened Putin’s claim that Moscow is not taking sides in the Israel-Hamas war.
Observers see the unrest as further evidence of the Kremlin’s inability to maintain control over a political landscape that is becoming increasingly turbulent, indicating potential for further unrest.
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