A new recommendation was presented early Wednesday during United Nations climate talks COP28 calling for the world to ultimately abandon fossil fuels, which drive global warming more strongly than the recommended proposal put forward a few days earlier, but with gaps that have drawn critics’ ire.
A fair and orderly transition away from fossil fuels
The new recommendation calls for “a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair and orderly manner, accelerating action in this critical decade.” This transition is to be achieved in a way that enables the world to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 according to climate science requirements.
The recommendation expects global carbon pollution to peak by 2025
The recommendation anticipates that the world will reach a peak in steadily increasing carbon pollution by 2025 to meet the agreed limit, but allows for individual countries like China to peak later.
Evaluation of the new text
The new recommendation was presented after intensive sessions with representatives from all countries participating in the conference. The proposed text has been evaluated by journalists, environmental activists, and analysts who have studied the changes made to the draft. It was rated from “C” to “B” after the initial proposal received a failing grade. However, the sentiment among them was that the final text is likely to be approved.
Future challenges
Representatives are expected to meet in a session that could lead to the adoption of the text or send negotiators back to work. Some language in previous drafts has been modified that upset countries calling for decisive action on climate change. Procedures previously presented as “may” be optional have been changed to “calls on the parties to.”
Funding and adaptation to climate change
Other documents submitted before dawn on Wednesday discuss financial issues to help poorer countries adapt to global warming and reduce carbon emissions, as well as how countries can adapt to a warmer climate. Many financial issues are scheduled to be discussed over the next two years at upcoming climate conferences in Azerbaijan and Brazil.
The recommendation is seen as a classic compromise
The recommendation is seen as a classic compromise, as one side manages to resist fossil fuel interests, but is discontented with the lack of strong provisions for funding developing countries to transition to clean energy and bridge the energy poverty gap.
The goal of the global review
The goal of the global review is to help countries align their national climate plans with the 2015 Paris Agreement, which calls for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The Earth is on track to break the record for the hottest year, putting human health at risk and leading to more costly and dangerous extreme weather events.
Future challenges
The annual conference was scheduled to conclude on Tuesday after nearly two weeks of work and speeches. Instead, negotiators were in closed meetings where they were redrafting the core document that had failed the previous day.
Oil, gas, and coal are the primary drivers of warming, and activists, experts, and many nations believe that firmly limiting fossil fuels is essential for mitigating warming.
The key to the summit is to find language that will not derail an agreement since the final agreement must be by consensus. However, the agreement does not require consensus, and agreements have been passed at previous climate summits despite the objection of one or two countries, according to climate negotiations historian Joann Dibble of Cambridge University.
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For Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen, there was some optimism after what he described as “very complex negotiations.” He told reporters, “Fossil fuels are not the future. We are moving away from them.”
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