There should be concern about the escalating tensions between North and South Korea on the ground following North Korea’s successful satellite launch during Thanksgiving week, which may turn the Korean Peninsula into another international security flashpoint and a potential breaking point for global stability.
Security Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula
The security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula have experienced a quiet downturn over the past year. North Korea is launching long-range missiles with impunity due to the paralysis of the United Nations Security Council stemming from tensions between the United States and Russia and the geopolitical competition between the United States and China. At the same time, Kim Jong Un has succeeded in maintaining local political control by surviving the failure of the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in February 2019 and the self-imposed quarantine due to the pandemic.
The Current Escalation of Tensions between North and South Korea
The increase in tensions between North and South Korea lies in the mutual dynamics manifested in the satellite race between the two Koreas and both sides’ decision to move away from the 2018 military agreement signed by North Korea with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in.
After the satellite launch by North Korea, the Yoon administration announced it would not adhere to the 2018 arms agreement that restricts South Korean forces from using equipment near the demilitarized zone (DMZ) to monitor North Korean activities. In response, North Korea is reconditioning and arming guard posts on the North Korean side of the DMZ.
The gradual escalation of tensions could lead to an unwanted crisis similar to the escalation that occurred in 2015 after South Korean soldiers were injured by an undiscovered North Korean landmine placed near a South Korean guard post.
Cooperation between the United States and South Korea
The Biden and Yoon administrations are working more collaboratively than ever to coordinate security and economic policies on the Korean Peninsula and in the region, driven by a part of converging interests in safeguarding international stability based on the rule of law in an era of increasing strategic competition. Furthermore, President Yoon has taken steps to normalize relations between South Korea and Japan, overcoming restrictions on trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea to address shared security threats.
However, the commitment to strengthening trilateral cooperation remains fragile, especially in the event of a political transition in the United States and/or South Korea towards a more nationalist approach focused on fulfilling specific national needs while excluding coordination in the US-South Korea alliance.
Internal Challenges and Shared Threats
Despite the rising geopolitical competition and shared security threats, both the United States and South Korea remain vulnerable to internal threats. The risk of conflict between allies is increasing due to rising political extremism in both countries. These trends may hinder the ability to operate the alliance effectively despite the shared interests in working together as partners in international security, economy, and technology, as noted in my new book: The U.S.-South Korea Alliance: How It Can Fail and Why It Should Not.
Ironically, the convergence of interests that has allowed the Biden and Yoon administrations to work closely with one another poses a risk to alliance cooperation. This may occur if one side or the other is seen as the exclusively preferred partner in managing the alliance’s shared interests rather than as political opposition leaders who may adopt nationalist or isolationist political platforms. These developments may be particularly concerning amidst geopolitical competition that makes the U.S.-South Korea alliance essential not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in addressing international disputes worldwide.
Source:
Forbes
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