Study: Many ingredients reduce the risk of death or disease rather than increase it.
Introduction
The “Great British Bake Off” (TGBBO) – also known as “The Great British Baking Show” in the US and Canada – features amateur competitors who face a series of baking challenges each week, culminating in one winner. The recipes include all types of delicious and fancy dishes, including suitable Christmas desserts. However, many of the Christmas recipes on the show may not be as bad for your health as some believe, according to a new research paper published in the annual issue of the British Medical Journal known for its light-hearted scientific papers.
History of the Show and Current Issues
TGBBO first aired in 2010 on BBC and quickly gained popularity, crossing the Atlantic. The show is inspired by traditional baking competitions in English villages (see any cozy English murder mystery for reference). Currently, the judges are Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith, with Noel Fielding and Alison Hammond presenting and providing commentary (sometimes inappropriate). Each week features a theme and three challenges: signature bake, technical challenge, and showstopper bake.
The New Study
The four co-authors of the new BMJ study – Joshua Walsh from Emory University and Yale University, Anant Gautam, Rishma Ramachandran, and Joseph Ross – are avid fans of TGBBO, considering it “the greatest baking show ever.” They are also fans of desserts in general, noting that the Catholic Church in medieval England issued a decree requiring a Christmas cake to be present four weeks before Christmas. Those cakes resembled a soup more, containing ingredients like prunes, raisins, carrots, nuts, spices, grains, eggs, beef, and lamb. Thus, those cakes were likely “healthier” than the modern version of desserts, which contain a lot of butter and sugar in particular.
Ingredients and the Study
Walsh and others wondered whether modern desserts might be healthier than is generally believed, and they conducted a comprehensive review of existing scientific literature to carry out their own “umbrella review.” Establishing direct causal links in nutrition is very challenging, whether we are talking about observational studies or systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For example, many previous studies focus on individual ingredients and do not consider the overall dietary pattern and lifestyle. They might also rely on self-reports provided by study participants. “Are we really going to accurately report the amount of desserts we ate hysterically at midnight after everyone else went to bed?” the authors wrote. Systematic reviews have their own weaknesses and biases.
Ingredients and Health Risks
The team examined the TGBBO website and selected 48 dessert recipes for cakes, cookies, pastries, and Christmas sweet dishes, such as “Black Forest Yule Log” and “Controversial Ruby Tea Panettone with Cherry and Chocolate.” These recipes contained 178 unique ingredients, which the authors categorized into 17 main groups of ingredients: baking soda, baking powder, and similar components; chocolate; cheese and yogurt; coffee; eggs; butter; food colors and flavors and extracts; fruit; milk; nuts; peanuts or peanut butter; refined flour; salt; spices; sugar; and vegetable fats.
Walsh and others found 46 health and nutrition-related reviews concerning those ingredient categories to analyze. This resulted in 363 associations between ingredients and the risk of death or disease, although only 149 were statistically significant. Among those associations, 110 (74 percent) reduce health risks while 39 (26 percent) increase risks. The most common ingredients associated with reduced risks are fruits, coffee, and nuts, while alcohol and sugar were the most common ingredients associated with increased risks.
Examples
On Recipes and Ingredients
Let’s take as an example the chocolate yolk log from Bro Lithe, which contains “a small amount of Irish cream liqueur.” Most of the adverse associations were related to alcohol content, which various studies have shown increases the risk of liver cancer, stomach cancer, colon cancer, gout, and arrhythmia. While alcohol can evaporate during cooking or baking, in this case, the cream filling contains alcohol that is not reduced by baking. (Lithe has often expressed her preference for “boozy baking” on the show).
In contrast, Raph’s frozen fantasy cake contains several healthy ingredients, particularly almonds and passion fruit, and thus carries a significantly lower risk of illness or death. The same applies to Paul Hollywood’s stollen cake, which contains almonds, milk, and a variety of dried fruits. “Overall, without eggs, butter, and sugar, this dessert is essentially a fruit salad with nuts,” the authors wrote. This is, of course, a significant exception, as eggs, butter, and sugar are what make up desserts. But Wallace and others note that most dietary studies that condemn sugar focus on the dietary effects of sugar-sweetened beverages, and none of the Christmas dessert recipes in TGBBO used such beverages, “doubtless because they would lead to a soggy-bottom cake.”
Study Conclusion
The BMJ study has its limitations, as it relies on evidence from previous observational studies. Also, Wallace and others did not take into account the amount of each ingredient used in any particular recipe. Regardless of whether the recipe calls for one berry or a full cup of berries, that ingredient will be valued equally in terms of its protective effects against the supposed harmful effects of butter. Would the probabilistic analysis have been more accurate? Certainly, but it would have been much less enjoyable.
So, is this a real Christmas miracle or an entertaining academic exercise in creative justification? Perhaps we shouldn’t think too much about it. “It’s Christmas, so enjoy your desserts in moderation,” the authors concluded.
Source: BMJ, 2023. DOI: 10.1136/bmj‑2023‑077166 (About DOIs).
Leave a Reply