Here is an article discussing the slow reduction of emissions in the United States. Recent data on electricity production in the country is presented, showing that natural gas, coal, and solar energy are the biggest changes. Trends are tracked and analyzed to understand the potential future of electricity production in the United States.
Tracking Trends
The data up to October provides an incomplete picture for 2023. Several factors can lead to the last months of the year differing from the earlier months. Some forms of energy generation are seasonal, particularly solar energy, which has its highest production during the summer months. Weather can also play a role, as unusually high demand for heating in the winter months can necessitate the operation of older fossil fuel plants. This also affects hydroelectric plant production, leading to significant variability from year to year.
Finally, everything is happening amid a strong recovery in the construction of solar and natural gas plants. Therefore, it is entirely possible that we will have enough new solar energy by the end of the year to offset the seasonal decline at the year’s end.
Data So Far
The most important conclusion is that energy consumption is generally steady. Total electricity production so far this year is down a little more than one percent from 2022, although demand was higher in October compared to last year. This aligns with a general trend of stable or declining electricity usage, where factors such as population growth and electrification expansion are offset by increased efficiency.
This is significant because it means that any new capacity will replace existing utility usage. Currently, coal usage is being offset. At this time last year, coal produced nearly 20 percent of electricity in the United States. This year, it has dropped to 16.2 percent, accounting for only 15.5 percent of October’s output. Wind and solar combined currently make up 16 percent of total production so far this year, suggesting they are likely to fiercely compete with coal this year and easily surpass it next year.
Regarding solar energy, it has seen a significant change, rising from five to six percent of total electricity production (these figures include both utility-scale production and the Energy Information Administration’s estimate of home production). It has not changed much in October alone, indicating that new construction is compensating for some seasonal declines.
Major Renewables
The three main renewable sources comprise about 22 percent of total electricity production so far, representing an increase of about 0.5 percent from last year. They are increasing further in October’s data, placing them far ahead of nuclear and coal.
Nuclear energy itself has not changed much, allowing it to surpass coal due to the latter’s decline. Its production has been boosted by a new 1.1-gigawatt reactor that came online this year (a second reactor at the same site, Vogtle in Georgia, is expected to begin commercial production at any moment). However, this is likely the end of new nuclear capacity for this decade; the challenge will be in maintaining the operation of existing plants despite their age and high costs.
If we combine nuclear and renewable energy under the umbrella of carbon-free production, it has increased by nearly 1 percent since 2022 and is likely to exceed 40 percent for the first time.
Natural Gas
The one thing preventing carbon-free energy from growing faster is natural gas, which is currently the fastest-growing source of production, rising from 40 percent of total output so far this year in 2022 to 43.3 percent this year. (In fact, it is slightly lower than this level in October’s data.) The explosive growth of natural gas in the United States is a significant environmental win, as it creates less particulate pollution than all fossil fuels, along with lower carbon emissions per unit of electricity. However, its usage must begin to decline soon if the United States wants to meet its climate goals, so it will be essential to monitor whether its growth will slow in the coming years.
And with
That said, all trends in electricity production in the United States are positive, especially considering that the rise in renewable energy production seemed impossible a decade ago. Unfortunately, the pace is currently too slow for the United States to achieve an emissions-free electrical grid by the end of the decade.
John Timmer is a science editor at Ars Technica. He holds a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in molecular and cellular biology from the University of California, Berkeley. When he steps away from the keyboard, he tends to look for a bike or a nice place to hike.
Source: https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/12/40-of-us-electricity-is-now-emissions-free/
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