As world leaders race to find ways to halt the climate crisis, the planet continues to accelerate towards 1.5 degrees Celsius at an unrelenting pace.
Climate Challenges and Goals
As world leaders gather at COP28 to discuss climate challenges and goals, the most ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels appears to be under threat.
Achieving a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) was considered a significant victory for the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. Until then, the ambition to curb global warming was limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), causing frustration for small island nations and other countries facing climate disruption.
Eight years after the Paris summit, only the severity of the climate crisis has changed for climate experts. Oil companies continue to expand their production, making profits and increasing emissions to record levels.
Global temperatures, which have surged due to the El Niño phenomenon, are higher than ever and have devastating impacts on ecosystem destruction, food supplies, and human mortality.
Floods, Storms, and Droughts
Floods, storms, and droughts are likely to become more intense and frequent as temperatures rise.
According to experts, those who will be worst affected are people living in countries with weak health systems and fragile economies.
Katherine Nakalembe, head of the Africa program at NASA Harvest, added that an additional 70 million people are expected to experience severe food insecurity in Africa at 2 degrees Celsius compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a report by The Guardian.
She noted that at lower temperatures, there is a 30 percent lower chance of extreme drought occurring compared to 2 degrees Celsius in South Africa, while maize and sorghum crops could be 40 to 50 percent less at 2 degrees Celsius compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius in West Africa.
Heavy Rains in the Amazon Rainforest
Non-human inhabitants of the planet, with half a degree less space to breathe, will face significant losses that increase pressure on water quality, pollination, and the components of the ecosystem supporting other planetary life.
According to experts, an estimated 18 percent of insect species, 16 percent of plant species, and 8 percent of vertebrates are expected to lose half of their habitats, which is at least twice the rates at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Experts also state that the Amazon rainforest and other tropical forests are likely to decline rapidly during dry periods, which are expected to last a month longer at 2 degrees Celsius compared to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with a threefold increase in extreme heat.
This scenario raises the likelihood of the rainforest reaching a tipping point, after which it is likely to dry out and become savanna, providing far fewer global benefits such as water transport, carbon sequestration, and cooling.
Disruption of Marine Systems
The health of the oceans is also affected by a warming world. Fishing, which billions of people rely on, is under stress due to oxygen depletion and acidification.
Beautiful coral reef systems, which are sensitive to fluctuations in temperature and water pH, are undergoing bleaching events and are likely to progressively dim as temperatures rise.
According to experts, at 1.5 degrees Celsius, saving coral reefs in the Caribbean and parts of the western Indian Ocean is nearly impossible. Thus, there is only a 10 percent to 30 percent chance of remaining healthy. The survival rate drops between 1 percent and 10 percent at 2 degrees Celsius.
Rising
Sea Level and Glacier Melting
Climate change in the Arctic Circle, which has already exceeded 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in some areas, is leading to rising sea levels, melting permafrost, disrupting jet streams, and releasing methane emissions. All of these climatic phenomena are threatening human survival.
Increased temperatures also heighten the risk of major ice sheet collapse in Antarctica. “Our survival is at risk,” said Fatu Manava-O-Opulu III, Dr. Pauli Lee Lutero, president of the Alliance of Small Island States, in an interview with The Guardian.
“We know we must stay within the 1.5-degree Celsius heating limit if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – impacts that our islands are already experiencing, including land loss due to rising sea levels, tragic loss of lives and homes from recurring and severe storms, lack of drinking water, agricultural depletion, and more,” he added.
(Based on inputs from agencies)
Summary
If the global heating target of 1.5 degrees Celsius is exceeded, flooding, storms, and droughts are expected to become more severe and frequent. Coral reefs, rainforests, marine systems, sea levels, and glaciers will all be negatively affected. Therefore, the world must work diligently to meet the global heating target of 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the negative impacts of climate change.
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