Countries made a historic commitment to “transition” energy systems away from fossil fuels – and some scientists are not satisfied with the soft wording of the statement.
Mixed Reactions from Scientists
Scientists expressed mixed reactions to the commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” made by world governments at the end of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai.
Lisa Schipper, a development geographer at the University of Bonn in Germany, said: “It’s a big deal.” Previous announcements at the end of COP conferences have never mentioned fossil fuels in this way – at COP26 in Glasgow, delegates committed to “reducing” unabated coal, which was regarded as a first of its kind at that time.
The Shift Away from Fossil Fuels
COP28 is the first global assessment since the Paris climate agreement in 2015 (COP21), where representatives from more than 190 countries pledged to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The final text of COP28 calls on parties to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly, and just manner, and to accelerate action in this critical decade to achieve net zero by 2050 according to science.”
Schipper says the text shows they are truly listening to science. However, she adds that “transitioning away” rather than “phasing out” fossil fuels remains disappointing, as “transition” can be interpreted in various ways. She states: “It doesn’t mean eliminating fossil fuels, while ‘phasing out’ fossil fuels means ‘the end.’”
Challenges and Hopes
Mezan Khan, an environmental scientist at the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Dhaka, Bangladesh, notes that most countries vulnerable to climate risks, including Bangladesh, prefer at least some language around phasing out fossil fuels. However, he adds that COP meetings rarely make strong decisions because choices are made by consensus among more than 190 countries.
The requirement under United Nations rules that countries agree unanimously on the text is described as a “fatal flaw” in the COP process, according to Charles Fletcher, a climate scientist at the University of Hawaii in Manoa who studies rising sea levels. At COP28, former Vice President Al Gore, a long-time environmental activist, urged member states to consider making decisions agreed upon by 75% of the countries. Fletcher adds, “It’s almost absurd that we are asking fossil fuel-producing leaders to guide humanity to a safe climate future.”
Boosting Funding and Finance
This year’s COP meeting began with optimism over another historic deal in which wealthy nations pledged over $700 million to the new “loss and damage” fund to support countries most affected by climate change. A commitment was also made to double renewable energy capacity by 2030.
The principle of the loss and damage fund was agreed upon at COP27 in Egypt last year. Schipper says COP28 was disappointing regarding climate finance commitments. There is an agreed-upon text on how to provide funds for countries to adapt to the effects of climate change, but Schipper describes this text as “incredibly vague.” The meeting should have set actual targets or specific financial commitments, but it failed to do so. From a scientific perspective, Schipper describes the adaptation finance text at COP28 as a “very dangerous constraint on financing for adaptation.”
Roman Weekmans, who studies climate finance at the University of Brussels, adds that “the bulk of climate finance” will be discussed next year at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Additional reports by Gemma Conroy
Leave a Reply