Introduction
The UN climate summit COP28 in Dubai concluded on December 13 with a historic agreement to shift away from fossil fuels and accelerate climate action over the next decade. The organization announced the agreement as a moment of global solidarity and considers it the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. However, the final agreement signed by nearly 200 countries did not include language mandating a phase-out of fossil fuel energy, which disappointed many nations, climate scientists, and activists.
Progress Made in the Agreement
The agreement is considered the first “global stocktake” of climate measures and progress since the Paris Agreement in 2015 aimed at limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The agreement recognizes scientific research findings indicating that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43 percent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. It then calls on countries to accelerate climate measures before 2030 to achieve net-zero globally by 2050—where the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere are balanced by those removed from it. Among the required measures are increasing global renewable energy production, reducing coal use, and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
Reactions from Scientists and Researchers
Reactions among scientists and researchers gathered in San Francisco at the American Geophysical Union meeting to discuss the impacts of climate change on Earth’s atmosphere, polar regions, oceans, and biosphere were more frustrated than celebratory. Climate scientist Luke Parsons from the Nature Conservancy, who works in Durham, North Carolina, said: “The beginning of the end? I hope it’s the middle of the end,” adding, “But it has to start somewhere, I think.”
Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado Boulder, said: “To say out loud that we’re aiming to phase out fossil fuels is a huge deal.” But he added, “It’s a testament to the science and the negotiators that we can take this step now before the truly catastrophic global effects begin to be felt.” However, he noted, “I fear that the pace [of future climate action] will still be driven by effects reaching our collective doorstep.”
Researchers had harsher views. Climate scientist Michael Mann from Penn State said: “It was weak,” adding, “What we really need is a commitment to phase out fossil fuels on a very specific timeline: we will reduce carbon emissions by 50 percent in this decade and bring them to zero by mid-century. Instead, they’ve agreed to move away from fossil fuels—the comparison I use is that you’re diagnosed with diabetes, and you tell your doctor you’ll move away from donuts. That won’t be enough. It didn’t meet the moment.”
Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California, Irvine, described the agreement as “disappointing and misleading,” noting that it did not include any language specifically calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels. Furthermore, he said: “COP28 still refuses the idea that 1.5 degrees Celsius may be achievable, but everyone is falling behind on achieving that target. [And] for glaciers and ice sheets, even 1.5 degrees Celsius is not sustainable.” There are already concerns, for example, that the melting of Greenland ice cannot be stopped.
Even if the world stays close to that mean temperature, “the ice sheets will recede,” according to Rob DeConto, a glaciologist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “But by the time we reach the end of the century, chaos will erupt if we exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius by a long shot. We are talking about exceeding the limits of adaptation around our coastlines.”
Warning
On Missed Opportunity
On December 12, marking the eighth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the European Union’s Climate Change Service noted that the world had “lost” 19 years by delaying action to reduce fossil fuel emissions. In 2015, climate forecasts predicted that the average global temperature would reach the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold by 2045 – then 30 years away. Now, forecasts suggest that the planet may reach that threshold by 2034, just 11 years away.
“We have a shrinking window of opportunity,” says Mann. “That opportunity will close if we do not drastically and immediately reduce our carbon emissions.”
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Sources:
– United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP28 agreement signals ‘beginning of the end’ of the fossil fuel era. Published online December 13, 2023.
– Copernicus Climate Change Service. We’ve ‘lost’ 19 years in the battle against global warming since the Paris Agreement. Published online December 12, 2023.
Source: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cop28-fossil-fuels-climate-change
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