At the COP28 conference, negotiators reached an agreement to gradually transition away from fossil fuels to achieve net zero by 2050. They were keen to finalize this agreement after the official end of the conference. This is not new in the sensitive multilateral negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Annual United Nations Climate Conference
This year’s UN climate talks were held in Dubai, chaired by Sultan Al Jaber. Despite criticism from many Western countries and NGOs regarding his ties to the oil sector, Al Jaber proved he could broker an agreement that most countries can live with. We must not forget that Al Jaber is the CEO of the state oil company ADNOC, and he is also the Chairman of Masdar, a champion of renewable energy in the United Arab Emirates.
Overall Goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The main issue was how to frame the phasing out of fossil fuel use. The overall goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to achieve the Paris goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Final Agreement
In the end, negotiators agreed on the following language: “A just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, and accelerate action in this critical decade, so that we reach net zero by 2050 in line with science.” Oil and gas-producing countries and ”climate hawks” from the OECD and NGOs could live with this language. The wording was hard-fought; no one was 100 percent satisfied, but that is the nature of consensus, everyone gets something and no one gets everything.
What Does This Agreement Mean?
German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan pointed out that the agreement will be a signal for investors. On one hand, this is good. There may be a potential risk in how investors feel about the incentives that the agreement provides. The world still needs fossil fuels (especially gas) during the transition period. If the sector suffers from a capital shortage leading to a lack of barrels or thermal units, it could hinder the pursuit of development and tackling energy poverty, especially in parts of the Global South.
Just and Ordered Energy Transition
This is where the just and orderly energy transition comes into play. COP28 was the most inclusive among all conferences held since the inception of the Conference of the Parties, bringing the fossil fuel industry to the table. It is important to treat all industries as part of the solution and not to single out one industry as the enemy.
There was a goal to double renewable energy and improve energy efficiency by double by the end of the decade, which is no easy task, but it helped convince some OECD member countries to join. Negotiators also acknowledged that nuclear power and carbon capture and storage have a role in this.
Future Challenges
All the goals mentioned above depend on the ability of countries and organizations to turn words into actions. The promises made in Glasgow regarding the coal phase-out have not yielded results. In fact, coal consumption has increased since 2021.
This brings us to the final point. All countries need to contribute fairly. India and China’s net zero targets are 2070 and 2060, respectively. They are significant sources of carbon emissions, and their cooperation will be essential to achieving the ambitious goals set in this year’s COP statement.
There is a divide between the Global North and South regarding countries’ priorities on climate change and economic considerations. This divide can be narrowed in this conference, but let there be no mistake – it still exists.
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Cornelia Meyer is a macroeconomic expert and energy specialist, as well as the CEO of Meyer Resources, a business consulting firm. Note: The opinions expressed by the writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.
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