Before the holiday break, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released data on electricity generation in the country. Due to delays in reporting, the monthly data extends only to October, so it does not provide a complete picture of the changes we have seen in 2023. However, it seems that some trends are now confirmed for this year: wind and solar are expected to be in a face-off with coal, and all carbon-free sources are expected to make up nearly 40% of electricity production in the United States. Tracking the trends
Tracking the Trends
The presence of data only until October provides an incomplete picture for 2023. There are several factors that can cause the last months of the year to differ from the preceding months. Some forms of generation are seasonal – particularly solar, which achieves its highest production during the summer months. Weather can also play a role, as unusual heating demands in winter months may necessitate the reactivation of old fossil fuel plants. It also affects hydroelectric production, creating a lot of variability from year to year.
Finally, all of this is occurring amid significant expansion in solar and natural gas construction. So, it is entirely possible that enough new solar power will be built over the year to offset the seasonal decline at the end of the year.
Energy Consumption
The key takeaway is that energy consumption remains remarkably stable. Total electricity production for the year so far has decreased by just over one percent compared to 2022, even though demand was higher in October this year relative to last year. This aligns with a long-term trend of stable or declining electricity use, where factors like population growth and the expansion of electrification are offset by increased overall efficiency.
This is important because it means that any new capacity added will replace the usage of existing facilities. Currently, this decline is happening for coal. At this time last year, coal accounted for about 20 percent of electricity generated in the United States. This year, it has dropped to 16.2 percent, representing only 15.5 percent of October’s production. Wind and solar are currently working together at 16 percent of the total generation for the year so far, indicating that they are likely to be in a face-off with coal this year and are expected to surpass it easily next year.
Regarding solar energy, it has seen a significant change, rising from five to six percent of total electricity generation (this figure includes both large system production and the EIA’s estimate of household production). It did not change much in October alone, indicating that new construction is offsetting some of the seasonal decline.
Nuclear Power and Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric production has decreased by almost six percent since last year, causing its share to drop from 6.1 percent to 5.8 percent of total generation. Depending on the next two months, this may allow solar to surpass hydro on the list of renewable sources.
Solar, wind, and nuclear together make up nearly 22 percent of total electricity generation so far this year, an increase of about 0.5 percent from last year. They increased further in the October data, placing them well ahead of nuclear and coal.
Nuclear itself has not changed much, allowing it to surpass coal thanks to the latter’s decline. Its production was boosted by a new 1.1-gigawatt reactor that came online this year (a second reactor at the same site, Vogtle in Georgia, is expected to begin commercial production at any moment). However, this is likely to be the end of new nuclear capacity for this decade; challenges remain in keeping existing plants open despite their age and high costs.
If
We have integrated nuclear power and renewable energy under the umbrella of carbon-free generation, and this has increased by nearly 1 percent since 2022 and is likely to exceed 40 percent for the first time.
Natural Gas
The only thing preventing carbon-free energy from growing faster is natural gas, which is currently the fastest-growing generation source, rising from 40 percent of the total year-to-date in 2022 to 43.3 percent this year. (In fact, it is slightly below this level in October data.) The explosive growth of natural gas in the United States has been a significant environmental win, as it produces less particulate pollution than all fossil fuels, as well as lower carbon emissions per unit of electricity. However, it will be essential for its use to begin declining soon if the United States wishes to achieve its climate goals, so it will be vital to see if its growth will halt in the next few years.
Outside of natural gas, all trends in electricity generation in the United States are good, especially considering that the rise in renewable energy production seemed impossible a decade ago. Unfortunately, the pace currently is too slow for the United States to achieve a carbon-free power grid by the end of the decade.
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John Timmer is the science editor at Ars Technica. He holds a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in molecular and cellular biology from the University of California, Berkeley. When he steps away from the keyboard, he tends to look for a bicycle or a beautiful hiking spot.
Source: https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/12/40-of-us-electricity-is-now-emissions-free/?comments=1
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