A new survey indicates that President Joe Biden is likely to lose all seven battleground states that are expected to decide the 2024 presidential election to former President Donald Trump, as he struggles to connect with key demographics, including Black voters and young people.
Key Facts
According to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, Biden would lose all seven battleground states by margins ranging from two points in Pennsylvania to nine points in North Carolina, where Trump leads by an average of five points.
Overall, 58% of voters in the seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – have a negative view of Biden compared to 53% who have a negative view of Trump, according to the survey conducted from November 27 to December 6 among 4,935 registered voters (margin of error 1 point).
The results show a widening gap between Biden and his base – with 23% of voters who supported Biden in 2020 expressing dissatisfaction compared to 17% of Trump voters who say they are unhappy with the former president.
Main Background
This latest poll is the most recent to show Trump outperforming Biden in the seven battleground states, where Biden won six of them in 2020, except for North Carolina. Voters consistently cite economic concerns as a major factor behind their dissatisfaction with Biden, amid a campaign of rising interest rates and inflation reaching a 30-year high last summer. Voters also express concerns about Biden’s age (81 years old). In recent months, the Israel-Hamas war has also impacted Biden with voters, as a majority disapprove of his handling of the conflict, according to a recent CBS poll. Meanwhile, Trump has made significant gains in the Republican primary race, leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by 50%, according to the average of public polls from FiveThirtyEight, despite facing four criminal charges and several ongoing civil cases. However, there are some indications that judicial rulings could impact the former president, as 31% of Republican voters say they would not vote for him if convicted, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
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