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Summary of the episode: How Putin Thinks | Fanjan Podcast

In an exciting episode of the podcast, the participants discuss a range of political and social topics that emerged in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union and its multiple impacts on Russia and the world. The conversation begins by highlighting how Putin perceives international situations, where one participant mentions Putin’s feeling that the West considers Russia a defeated country, and that the rules of engagement do not allow the defeated to impose their conditions. The discussion then shifts to Putin’s role in regional conflicts, especially in Libya, and how the Russian intervention is considered legitimate compared to interventions by other powers such as the United States and France.

The participants also express their feelings about Putin as an extraordinary figure, with one describing him as a patriot who loves his country but has harsh ways of expressing that love. The debate also touches on the participants’ personal experiences with Putin and Russia, and how historical events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, have shaped their life paths.

Additionally, the conversation addresses the social and economic changes that Russia experienced after the collapse of the Soviet Union, emphasizing that this period was filled with challenges and difficulties, as well as the impact of corruption on the Russian economy. The overall picture reflects that radical changes occurred, but they were not always in favor of the people, leading to insecurity and a sense of chaos.

The episode offers a deep analysis of historical events and personal experiences, making it a starting point for understanding current international relations and how they influence the internal situations of major countries.

Political Transformations in Russia After the Cold War

Russia witnessed radical transformations after the end of the Cold War, where Russian President Vladimir Putin realized that the West was treating Russia as a defeated state. This perspective led to escalating tensions between Russia and Western countries, with Russia feeling that it had been subjected to various forms of discrimination and exclusion. According to Putin, the rules of war require that the defeated cannot dictate their terms, which has driven him to seek to rebuild Russia’s international strength. These political transformations have made Putin a central figure in shaping Russia’s foreign and political path, complicating international relations.

Putin’s intervention in foreign affairs, such as in Libya, signals Russia’s restoration of its role as a great power. This intervention is seen as a clear challenge to the West, raising the question: why is Russia’s intervention deemed unacceptable while the interventions of other countries such as China and France are accepted? This situation reflects double standards in international politics and highlights Putin’s desire to restore Russian prestige on the global stage.

Life Experience in Russia During the 1990s

Life in Russia during the 1990s was filled with challenges. The period following the collapse of the Soviet Union was one of the toughest times in Russian history, as the country grappled with economic and social chaos. During these times of collapse, high poverty and corruption rates characterized daily life, with many Russians striving for personal stability amid tough circumstances. The presence of mafia and gangs in the streets made everyday life fraught with risks, impacting citizens’ psyche and sense of security.

Economic problems escalated, with many jobs lost and living conditions deteriorating. Many stood in line at stores where essential goods were scarce. This image epitomizes the daily suffering experienced by many during that period, a time filled with frustration and disappointment. Nonetheless, this experience bolstered the resilience of the Russian people, as they learned how to adapt to new circumstances.

Influential Figures in Russian Politics

Figures such as Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev had a significant impact on Russia’s political trajectory. Gorbachev, who launched the policies of “Perestroika” and “Glasnost,” sought to implement radical reforms in the Soviet system but faced strong resistance from traditional forces. These policies, while seemingly positive, heavily impacted the state’s stability, ultimately leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union. His insistence on the necessity of transparency and openness was not accepted by all segments of society, exacerbating political and social crises.

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Yeltsin represented a new phase where he attempted to merge Russia with the West. However, he faced significant challenges that affected his tenure, as poorly thought-out economic policies led to widespread corruption and the exploitation of national resources. During Yeltsin’s period, a small group of businessmen managed to control most of the country’s wealth, increasing the gap between the rich and the poor.

The Russian Identity Amid Global Changes

In the context of these transformations, questions arose about the Russian identity and the impact of the West on Russian culture. The Russian identity suffered from numerous divisions, as feelings of national pride mixed with anxiety over Western influences. There was a whole generation that viewed the West as a model to emulate, while others saw this influence as a threat to their culture and traditions. This division reflected the internal tensions in Russia between national tendencies and the desire to open up to the world.

Cultural and social issues intertwined with politics, making it difficult to define the meaning of national identity. Pride in Russian history and its symbolism clashed with the contemporary challenges posed by globalization and world transformations. Thus, this period in Russia’s history was rich in lessons and morals, requiring a reevaluation of the values and principles guiding Russian society.

Cultural and Religious Diversity in Russia

Russia is considered a culturally and religiously diverse country, home to many nationalities and religions. Orthodox Russians constitute the majority, but there is also a significant presence of Jews, Muslims, and other ethnic groups. The number of Muslims in Russia is estimated to be around 20 million, making Islam the second largest religion in the country. This diverse composition contributed to shaping Russia’s cultural identity, but it also led to many social and political challenges. In the context of political and economic transformations, these cultural gaps played a role in the emergence of conflicts and tensions, particularly in the post-Soviet Union period.

Social and Economic Corruption in the 1990s

Russia experienced a period of chaos and corruption in the 1990s, as the economic policies implemented by Boris Yeltsin widened the gap between the rich and the poor. Yeltsin opened the doors for private capital, resulting in the emergence of a new class of wealthy individuals while the poor became poorer. This gap led to significant social problems, including rising crime rates and drug addiction. Moreover, Western culture, notably American cinema, impacted the cultural values of Russian youth, contributing to the disintegration of the traditional social fabric.

The Impact of Wars on Russian Identity

Russia was significantly affected by wars, especially the First Chechen War, which began in 1994. This war was not just a military conflict but had profound effects on Russian national identity. The Russian army suffered a humiliating defeat, affecting Russians’ pride in their government. That defeat was a turning point, leading to a rethinking of how the state and military power were managed. After the war ended, Putin began to take steps to restore Russian prestige, which helped in consolidating his authority and directing public opinion toward supporting his policies.

Putin’s Rise to Power and Its Impact on Russian Politics

Vladimir Putin rose to power in the late 1990s, at a time when Russia was searching for a strong leader after a period of weakness. After Yeltsin’s resignation, Putin took on the role of Prime Minister and then the presidency. Putin used events such as the apartment bombings in Moscow and the Second Chechen War as an opportunity to strengthen his authority. He emerged as a strong leader, restoring order in the country. Putin made military strength a tool for achieving victory and restoring Russian prestige, which helped him solidify his power and build an image of a strong leader in the eyes of the Russian people.

Challenges

Internal and External Challenges for Russia in Modern Times

Today, Russia faces numerous internal and external challenges, ranging from ethnic and religious tensions to economic and political difficulties. The feeling of social instability is growing due to economic and cultural gaps. On the international stage, Russia has become an influential player in global politics, but this comes with increasing tensions with Western countries. These dynamics reflect the complex situations Russia is experiencing, as Putin seeks to address these challenges by strengthening his internal authority and enhancing Russia’s role on the international stage.

Scorched Earth Strategy and Its Impact on Chechnya

The scorched earth policy is considered one of the military and political strategies used by certain regimes in specific contexts, including the conflict in Chechnya. This policy focuses on destroying everything that may benefit the enemy, including infrastructure, resources, and local communities. In Chechnya, this policy led to a deterioration of the humanitarian situation, with many cities and towns being destroyed, significantly impacting the lives of the population.

The Russian authorities employed this strategy in their attempts to eradicate the Chechen rebellion, which met with strong opposition from the international community. Attacks on civilians and culturally significant sites underscored the use of this strategy, leading to renewed conflicts and increased tensions between Russia and Chechnya.

Within this conflict, Chechen leaders emerged, such as Akhmad Kadyrov, who became a prominent figure. Kadyrov was the Mufti of Chechnya and had a significant influence on Chechen society. He began his political career as an opponent of the Russian presence in Chechnya, but later, upon realizing the extent of the destruction caused by the wars, changed his stance and became a supporter of Moscow. These political shifts reflect the complexity of the situation in Chechnya, where external powers control the fate of local populations.

The Role of Akhmad Kadyrov in Chechen Political Transformations

Akhmad Kadyrov, as a pivotal figure in contemporary Chechen history, played an important role in the political transformations the country underwent. Kadyrov was the Mufti of Chechnya and led a group of movements advocating for independence from Russia, especially during the First Chechen War (1994-1996). However, as the conflict escalated and conditions deteriorated, Kadyrov began to reassess his positions.

After the Second War, which devastated many Chechen cities, Kadyrov realized that demands for independence also meant further suffering for the Chechen people. Thus, he began to think strategically, leading him to support Moscow, where he was later chosen to lead the civil administration in Chechnya. This move was controversial, as some viewed it as a betrayal of the principles he was raised on.

Kadyrov used his influence to promote stability in Chechnya post-war, seeking to attract investments and improve economic conditions. Nonetheless, many Chechens believed that his support for Russia had a negative impact on their rights. This tension between Chechen leaders and the local community reflects the complex challenges facing the country amid continuously changing political circumstances.

Changes in Russian Policy After Putin’s Munich Speech

In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference, which was considered a turning point in relations between Russia and the West. During this speech, Putin harshly criticized Western dominance and emphasized that a unipolar world was no longer acceptable. This speech illustrated Putin’s desire to reaffirm Russia’s role as a major power on the international stage.

Putin expressed his dissatisfaction with NATO’s expansion, which he viewed as a threat to Russian national security. He also criticized the selective application of international law by the West, reflecting the power strategies the West used in various crises such as the invasion of Iraq and the Yugoslav War. This strong criticism of Western policies came at a time when Russia was undergoing a period of political and economic instability, as it needed to rebuild its image as a sovereign state.

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The direct implications of this speech led to the beginning of a new period of tensions between Russia and the West, as Russia began to bolster its military capabilities and rejected Western policies. The lessons learned from this speech continue to affect international relations to this day, as major countries remain cautious in the context of ongoing crises, and attention is drawn to potential reactions to various Russian strategies.

Russia’s Relationship with the West and the Impact of the Iraq War

The Iraq War in 2003 was one of the pivotal moments in modern history, significantly impacting relations between Russia and the West. While the United States and its allies sought to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime, Russia was among the countries that vehemently opposed this war, deeming it unjustified. This stance was publicly articulated by Putin, who criticized the manner in which the war was justified.

Through his opposition to the war, Putin aimed to restore Russia’s status as a power capable of influencing international affairs. This assessment was part of his efforts to build alliances with other countries opposing American hegemony, adding further complexity to international politics.

The Russian-American relations, which had begun positively at the start of Putin’s rule, faced a notable shift after the Iraq War. This shift impacted many aspects, including international security, foreign policy, and trade. Russia became more cautious in its dealings with the West, leading to an increasing deterioration of relations and the emergence of more confrontational positions on various political files.

Western Policies Towards Russia

The discussion addressed the policies adopted by the United States and its Western allies towards Russia since the beginning of the new millennium. It was noted that these policies aimed to contain Russian influence in the surrounding areas, including NATO expansion and the strengthening of missile defense systems. It was also indicated that these policies posed a challenge to Russia, complicating matters between the two sides.

As an example, Putin was seen as a bet on stabilizing relations between Russia and the West, as he sought to find an equation that would secure his country’s interests in light of these Western actions. In 2007, there was mention of how Putin attempted to strengthen Russia’s position in the international arena through integration with the West, but the outcome was that the West did not welcome such a proposal, leading to increased tensions.

When discussing Putin’s desire to join NATO, it was surprising to many, especially as it came from a leader of a country with substantial military power and nuclear capabilities. The aim of this request was to create a security balance that would allow Russia to participate more effectively in international politics, rather than being considered a marginal player, which Putin expressed clearly on many occasions.

The continuation of these Western policies, including military support for countries near Russia, created a state of provocation among Russian leadership, leading to an escalation of the situation and laying the groundwork for further tensions that ultimately led to political and military crises in the region.

Russia’s Response to Regional Crises

As crises began to escalate in Russia’s vicinity, such as the conflict in Georgia in 2008, these served as a real test of Putin’s foreign policy. The discussion covered how Putin responded to these crises, as the South Ossetia War resulted from increasing conflicts between the Georgian government and separatist regions.

Putin considered that Russia’s intervention in Georgia was necessary to protect its citizens living in the relevant areas. The war served as a clear message to the West that Russia would not hesitate to use force when it comes to its national interests. This war led to Russia’s recognition of two separate republics in Georgia, further complicating the relationship between Russia and the West.

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He also pointed out that Putin used these crises to strengthen his position internally, as he was able to present himself as a strong leader protecting Russian interests. He relied on popular sentiments supporting nationalism, which made him more popular within Russia.

Furthermore, the international dimensions of these crises were highlighted, where there was a quick response from the West through sanctions on Russia, leading to a deterioration in relations between the two sides and showing how each crisis affected the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

Putin’s Legacy and Political Persona

Putin’s political persona reflects his personal experiences and his country’s history, as the early stages of his life and their impact on his current character were discussed. Putin was born into a family that suffered during World War II, leaving a significant mark on his thinking.

It was noted how the siege of Leningrad affected his family, especially the loss of family members in the war. This difficult experience shaped the spirit of toughness and caution he exhibited, making him always wary of surrounding dangers.

Putin learned martial arts as a means of self-defense, which contributed to shaping his strong character. The discussion revealed how his interest in judo and other sports competitions played a role in building his identity as a leader who demonstrates strength and confidence.

Moreover, it was addressed how Putin constructed his leadership style, which combines power and political acumen, as he constantly seeks to create an environment where he controls the surrounding circumstances. These characteristics made him a central figure in Russian politics, and despite criticism, he managed to maintain his status as an effective and influential leader.

Russian-Israeli Tensions

The discussion tackled the complex relations between Russia and Israel, particularly in the context of regional conflicts. History shows that Putin has had a desire to maintain good relations with Israel, but political events led to a strain in relations between the two sides.

It was pointed out how the war in South Ossetia in 2008 affected Russian-Israeli relations, as Israel supported Georgia, which Putin considered a betrayal. This stance created a deep rift between the two countries and led to Putin reevaluating his relationship with Israel.

Additionally, the Israeli stance on the current conflicts in Ukraine was addressed, where Israel supported some parties opposing Russia, complicating relations between them. This shows how international politics intersect with bilateral relations and how events in one place can affect the relationship elsewhere.

There was also a discussion on how Putin attempted to exploit the presence of a large number of Russian Jews in Israel as a means to enhance relations, but Israeli government policies did not help much in this regard. These tensions reflect how domestic and foreign politics influence international relations and show that Putin, despite his attempts at reconciliation, faces difficulties in building stable relations with Israel.

Deterioration of Relations Between Russia and the West

The relations between Russia and the West are considered one of the most complex issues in international politics, especially after the events that occurred in the Caucasus and Ukraine. After the war in Georgia in 2008, relations began to deteriorate, as it became clear that Russia no longer considered itself part of the Western security system. This war served as a wake-up call regarding how Russia dealt with its neighbors, leading to an increase in tensions with Western countries. Data indicates that relations were deteriorating, but not at the speed that occurred later after the Ukraine crisis. At that time, there were rational voices in Europe opposing standing up to Russia, as some European countries tried to maintain a balanced stance, seeking to preserve diplomacy that promotes cooperation rather than escalation.

The role of the United States has a significant impact on exacerbating this escalation, as it has pushed some European countries to take more hostile stances towards Russia, contributing to a deeper divide in relations. There were voices in Germany, Britain, and France questioning why the United States is forcing European countries to confront Russia, reflecting resistance among some Western examples to the idea of unwarranted hostility. Ultimately, it became clear that such stances could lead to further escalation in the conflict, and that steps should be taken to enhance dialogue and understanding, rather than seeking direct confrontations.

The Importance of Crimea in Russian Politics

Crimea plays a pivotal role in Russian politics, not only from a geographical perspective but also historical and cultural. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea became part of Ukraine, which many Russians considered a historical mistake. Putin views the annexation of Crimea as a correction of those errors, as the vast majority of Crimea’s population speaks Russian and feels a deep connection to Russia. Putin strategically decided on the annexation, as Crimea hosts the port of Sevastopol, which serves as a launch point for Russian forces in the Black Sea.

This region is crucial for Russian national security, especially amidst potential threats from NATO and the West. If Ukraine had joined NATO, it would mean the presence of Western military bases near the Russian border, which could be perceived as a direct threat. Therefore, the annexation of Crimea was not just a political move, but a necessary step to ensure Russian national security. These dynamics show how historical memory can influence current politics, and how differing understandings of history can lead to complex conflicts.

Russia’s Role in the Middle East

Russia is working to enhance its presence in the Middle East, seeking to expand its influence in a region considered highly strategic. Its involvement in the Syrian conflict was a significant step, as it aided the Syrian government in facing opposition, granting it a permanent military base in the region. This intervention reflects Russia’s desire to be a key player in regional politics, especially in countering Western influence, particularly American. Russia views its presence in Syria as a platform to extend its influence in neighboring countries and strengthen its relations with Arab states.

It can be argued that Russia is attempting to capitalize on the mistakes made by the West in the region, presenting itself as an alternative to Western powers, especially regarding issues of sovereignty and intervention. This approach can be seen as part of its broader strategy to achieve a new balance of power on the international stage, looking to cooperate with countries that are frustrated with Western policies. Although Russia’s role in the Middle East may be limited compared to the United States, there has been an increasing trend toward strengthening this role in recent years, reflecting a shift in international politics.

The Impact of History on Russian-Ukrainian Relations

History plays a key role in shaping the relationships between Russia and Ukraine. Since the Soviet era, Ukraine was considered an integral part of Russian identity, and there was a sense of cultural and historical connection between the two peoples. However, after the fall of the Soviet Union, these dynamics began to change. Many Ukrainians started to pursue an independent identity, which Russia viewed as a threat to its interests. Hence, the struggle for identity has fueled political disputes between the two countries, leading to instability in the region.

The Crimea crisis and the subsequent conflict in Eastern Ukraine reflect this historical tension. Putin promotes the idea that Ukraine is not an independent state in itself, but rather part of the Russian cultural space. This narrative can be used to justify Russian interventions, demonstrating how history can be employed as a political tool to enhance strategic objectives. This historical perspective underscores that international relations are not merely contemporary issues but are deeply influenced by collective memories and historical experiences, making it difficult to find a lasting solution to the conflict.

Understanding

Russian Influence Strategies

Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, Russia seeks to expand its influence on the international stage in a manner that reflects its geopolitical orientations. Putin adopts a fundamental principle in his policy: any attack on his country should be met with a swift and decisive response. This strategy reflects the desire to maintain national sovereignty and ensure that Russia does not face global pressures. For instance, these policies are manifested in Russia’s intervention in areas such as Syria and Libya, where it represents a military intervention to delineate its sphere of influence in the Middle East. In this context, Putin considers that the battle is not merely a military conflict but also a political struggle that requires action before the opportunity is lost.

Russian Intervention in Regional Conflicts

The Russian intervention in regional conflicts, such as the Syrian crisis and NATO’s intervention in Libya, illustrates how Russia responds differently according to the surrounding circumstances. In Libya, for example, Russia did not take any direct military action and only resorted to speeches and denunciations, while in Syria, it employed military force and the veto power. This variation reflects a deep understanding of the nature of different conflicts and the objective of interventions: to protect Russian interests and enhance its presence in the region. Russia has considered military support for the Syrian regime as a reaffirmation of its presence and influence on the international stage, especially after its previous projects in the Middle East had shown failure.

Russian-Western Relations and Different Assessments

Russian-Western relations are characterized by tension, as the West seeks to reduce Russia’s influence around the world. This tension is reflected in the Russian reactions to global events, such as its support for the Syrian regime and its maintenance of relations with countries it considers strategic. In this context, Putin regards opposing the West as a national necessity, as any retreat could lead to a loss of geopolitical gains. However, there are currents within Russia that believe in the necessity of maintaining some ties with the West, creating a complex dynamic in Russian politics. This approach requires Russia to balance between maintaining its strength and making concessions that could preserve national security.

The Arctic Conflict

The conflict over the Arctic is seen as one of the new dimensions of global geopolitical conflict, where Russia seeks to enhance its presence in this resource-rich region. This policy reflects Putin’s ambitions to achieve greater influence in international waters, with the Arctic considered a strategic bet that enhances Russia’s position in the global market. As climate change and ice melting intensify, major powers have begun to view the Arctic as a new center of wealth and resources. This conflict is complex, involving several countries competing for influence, such as the United States, Canada, and Norway, making the future in this area uncertain.

Russian Identity and Its Challenges

The Russian identity faces significant challenges in the current political circumstances. Many Russians strive to understand their true identity in a complex historical and cultural context. Doubts about the European Russian identity are growing, as some view Western values as incompatible with Russian traditions. This cultural struggle creates internal tension, as Russians seek to maintain their traditions while others yearn for openness to the West. These discussions about identity are part of a broader discourse on what it means to be Russian in the modern age and how to preserve national culture in a changing world.

The Ukrainian War and Its Impacts

The war in Ukraine is considered one of the most prominent geopolitical issues currently facing the global arena. This war began in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, leading to increased tension between Russia and Western countries. This war is viewed as a complex conflict that transcends mere regional disputes, intertwining many political, economic, and social factors. For instance, Western countries consider Russia a threat to European security, while Russia views its actions as necessary to protect its interests and national security. There are also direct impacts of the war on the global economy, especially in the energy sector, as Ukraine is a major transit route for Russian gas to Europe, making any conflict there affect energy supplies on the continent. Examples of economic impacts include rising gas and oil prices in global markets due to fears of supply disruptions.

Policy

Russia and Putin

Vladimir Putin has been a pivotal figure in Russian politics since 2000, with his rule characterized by the strengthening of central authority and curtailing of opposition powers. Putin is seen as a symbol of national power, with his policies associated with nationalist orientations aimed at restoring Russia’s prestige on the international stage. On the other hand, Putin’s pursuit of aggressive foreign military policies, such as intervention in Syria or supporting separatists in Ukraine, is part of his strategy to reshape the international order in accordance with Russia’s interests. The Russian constitution has also been amended to allow Putin to remain in power longer, raising local and international criticism regarding democracy and human rights.

Russian-Chinese Relations

Russian-Chinese relations are considered one of the most prominent geopolitical relationships of the 21st century. The two countries share many interests, particularly in countering Western influence. Both Russia and China see themselves as part of a common camp against Western policies, which enhances cooperation between them in multiple areas, such as trade, energy, and security. However, there are also rivalries, especially in border areas experiencing increasing Chinese influence, which may pose a challenge to Russian policy. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, and at the same time, there are concerns that China may exploit the situation to its advantage in the future. Nevertheless, military cooperation between the two countries remains a sensitive issue, as China prefers to adopt a non-military approach in its dealings.

Tensions in the Middle East

The Middle East is witnessing complex tensions related to the roles of Russia and Iran. The recent visit of the Russian National Security Council Chairman to Iran comes within a tangled context of regional and international relations. Through strengthening its ties with Iran, Russia seeks to benefit from stabilizing the situation in Syria, while these relationships pose a threat to American and Israeli interests in the region. Iran, for its part, is seeking Russian support to enhance its position against Israeli threats, complicating the situation further. Russian-Israeli relations are characterized by great caution, with each party seeking to maintain its interests without entering into direct conflict that could negatively affect conditions in the region.

US-China Conflict and Its Global Impacts

The conflict between the United States and China is considered one of the foremost challenges impacting the international system. The race for economic and political influence between the two superpowers is evident in various fields, from technology to trade, and from politics to security. The United States aims to maintain its global dominance, while China seizes opportunities to enhance its status as an emerging global power. Tensions surrounding Taiwan are one of the most prominent points of friction, as China considers Taiwan part of its territory, while the United States supports its independence. As fears of military conflict escalate, experts indicate that despite current tensions, it is not in either party’s interest to engage in an open dispute, as it could lead to catastrophic global repercussions, including economic and military dimensions. At the same time, there is an urgent need for cooperation among major powers to address global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and cybersecurity, highlighting the importance of dialogue and mutual understanding.

The episode was summarized using artificial intelligence ezycontent


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