The World Health Organization is tracking a new strain of coronavirus called JN.1, which is considered a branch of the heavily mutated “Pirola” strain that is spreading rapidly around the world and has become the fastest-growing strain in the United States.
Key Facts
JN.1 is a branch of the heavily mutated Omicron strain called BA.2.86, known as “Pirola”, which some experts are concerned can evade the protection gained from previous infections and vaccinations, causing a large wave of illness similar to what the original Omicron strain did upon its emergence.
Since the World Health Organization has already classified the BA.2.86 strain as a “variant of interest” – a viral strain that contains known or suspected genetic changes affecting characteristics such as transmissibility, immune escape, and disease severity, and spreads in a way that could pose an “emerging risk to global public health” – and is tracking JN.1 as part of this group, it is already deemed a “variant of interest” in any case.
The World Health Organization has confirmed that JN.1 now warrants independent classification based on its “rapidly increasing spread” worldwide, noting that it now makes up the “majority” of the reported BA.2.86 strain.
The UN agency confirmed that the available evidence, although “limited”, suggests that the strain poses a “low risk” to public health.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention validated this assessment in early December when they confirmed that the JN.1 strain was responsible for between 15% and 29% of coronavirus cases and was “the fastest-growing strain in the United States”.
Both health agencies affirmed that updated vaccines will continue to protect individuals from severe illness and death caused by JN.1, as they do with other strains, and that there is no evidence that the strain causes more severe disease compared to other strains.
What We Don’t Know
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated in early December that “the continued growth of the JN.1 strain suggests that it is either more transmissible or better at evading our immune system”. However, the agency said it is unclear to what extent JN.1 is contributing to the current rise in COVID activity given the usual patterns of infection observed at this time of year. It is also not clear whether JN.1 causes a set of symptoms different from other strains, as the CDC noted that symptoms “tend to be similar across strains”. The agency stated that the severity and types of symptoms “often depend on the individual’s immunity and overall health rather than the strain causing the infection”. The CDC said it will continue to monitor the situation and that COVID activity is likely to increase throughout December, urging people to get vaccinated “if they haven’t received one this fall”.
What to Watch For
JN.1 is on track to become the dominant strain in the United States within a few weeks. The agency’s latest estimates suggest that the strain was responsible for up to 30% of cases as of December 9, compared to between 6% and 11% two weeks prior. The dominant strain, HV.1, was responsible for between 27% and 33% of cases as of December 9 and between 30% and 34% of cases the week before that. In the CDC’s monitoring area that includes the Northeast – New Jersey, New York, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands – JN.1 is already the dominant strain, accounting for approximately 32% of cases. The strain is sharply on the rise in other regions as well, being responsible for between 15% and 26% of cases in areas monitored by the CDC.
The Number
The Big Picture
1,159,864. This is the number of deaths from COVID in the United States since January 2020, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since early September, there have been about 1,200 to 1,400 COVID deaths nationwide each week, one of the lowest figures since the beginning of the pandemic and a drop from a peak of over 26,000 cases in early 2021 when Omicron caused a surge in cases.
What to Watch For
There is another category above the “variant of interest” that the organization has not used since the emergence of Omicron. The threshold for a “variant of concern,” which is likely to give the variant a name with a Greek letter like Alpha, Beta, or Delta, is designated for variants that pose a significantly increased risk to public health. Such variants have been shown to be more transmissible and cause more severe illness or evade vaccine and treatment protections.
Additional Information
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed that JN.1 remains closely related to BA.2.86, despite differences in naming. The agency stated that the difference is due to how variants are named and explained that “there is only one change between JN.1 and BA.2.86 in the spike protein.” The spike protein is a crucial part of the coronavirus that allows the virus to enter cells and cause infection.
Further Reading
Ensuring the effectiveness of Moderna’s updated COVID vaccine against the Pirola variant – amidst rising concerns about the new strain (Forbes)
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