Fighters in Gaza launched a barrage of rockets towards Israel and towards Al-Ahli Hospital 44 seconds before an explosion there that resulted in the deaths of at least 100 people, according to a visual analysis by The Washington Post.
Visual Analysis and Videos
The newspaper was able to identify the location of the rocket launch near the hospital in Gaza City based on video obtained from the Israeli television channel Keshet 12 News. The analysis showed that the rockets from that attack were able to reach the hospital in time for the explosion.
The visual analysis of the videos and expert review of site images led to indirect evidence that could support Israel’s and the U.S. government’s claim that a stray rocket fired by armed Palestinian groups was responsible for the explosion on October 17.
Lack of Direct Evidence
At the same time, no visual evidence was shown of a rocket hitting the hospital grounds, and the evidence reviewed by the newspaper did not rule out the possibility that an unseen rocket fired from another location struck the hospital grounds.
Expert Analysis
None of the experts consulted by the newspaper were able to definitively conclude the type of weapon that struck the hospital grounds or who fired it. However, ordnance experts agreed that the damage at the hospital was consistent with a rocket strike. They stated it was inconsistent with an airstrike, which would have caused much greater devastation, or artillery fire, which would have left large shrapnel and likely would not have caused the massive fireball visible in the videos.
Additionally, the newspaper’s analysis found that the video broadcast by Al Jazeera, which was cited by both the Israeli and U.S. governments as evidence of a failed rocket landing on the hospital grounds, actually shows a rocket being launched from a location several miles away in Israel, near an Iron Dome air defense battery. Experts said the widely circulated video likely shows an Iron Dome interceptor colliding with a rocket over three miles from the hospital and may have no relation to the hospital explosion.
Comment from the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence
A spokesman for the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the specific findings by the newspaper, including the location of a potential rocket launch inside Israel. He said they had “high confidence” that the hospital explosion was caused by a rocket fired by “Palestinian fighters,” based on unpublished intercepted phone calls, damage analysis at the hospital, and four publicly available videos. He noted that the video aired by Al Jazeera was one of the four videos they relied on but did not share the other videos.
Difficulty in Assigning Responsibility
The lack of direct evidence made it difficult to definitively prove who fired the shell that exploded at Al-Ahli Hospital and illustrates the limits of attempting to investigate remotely in war zones without access to the site.
Accusations Between Hamas and the Israeli Army
Hamas blamed the hospital explosion on an Israeli airstrike, while the Israeli army said it was the result of a “misfired” rocket from Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian armed group. The Gaza health ministry stated that 471 people were killed, while an unclassified U.S. intelligence assessment noted that the death toll was “likely on the lower end of the range of 100 to 300.”
Defective Rockets
Rockets launched from Gaza have suffered from many malfunctions. The Israeli army stated last week that Palestinian armed groups had launched over 6,900 rockets toward Israel since the onset of the current conflict, with 550 of them failing to explode properly. The spokesman for the Israeli army declined to comment on whether any munitions classified as rockets have been used since the war began.
The Explosion
Damage
The explosion at the hospital ignited a massive fire and generated a fireball. The flames spread into the hospital courtyard, where hundreds of people were sheltering in hope of avoiding airstrikes. A video captured immediately after the explosion showed dozens of bodies lying in the courtyard.
Investigation at the Explosion Site
Both Israel and Egypt, which have imposed an effective blockade on Gaza for over 16 years, have not allowed foreign journalists into Gaza since the onset of the latest war, making it difficult to closely examine the explosion site. Palestinian journalists were allowed access to the hospital grounds and took photos the day after the strike, but none of those photos showed clear parts of the weapon, which is a critical aspect of such investigations.
Video Analysis
The videos showed rockets being launched from two different points approximately 40 miles away. By using visible reference image analysis in the videos, the newspaper was able to pinpoint the launch location of the rockets near the hospital in Gaza City. The analysis found that the rockets were flying toward the northeast, towards the hospital.
Expert Analysis of the Rockets
According to experts, the rockets used by Palestinian armed groups take between 25 to 45 seconds to reach the hospital from the launch site, depending on factors such as the angle of launch. Experts stated that the rockets in the videos would have been capable of reaching the hospital in time for the explosion.
The Explosion and Airburst
Video recorded from a building about 500 feet southeast of the hospital captured a loud sound of a rocket passing quickly before the explosion. Acoustic analysis experts indicated that the increasing sound suggests that the rocket was accelerating. They stated that the rocket was moving vertically, gaining speed from gravity, which is more consistent with a faulty rocket falling from the sky, according to acoustic analysis, rather than an object moving horizontally.
The explosion at the hospital site caused a significant blast and the emergence of a fireball.
Damage at the Hospital
Images reviewed by experts indicated that the damage to buildings surrounding the courtyard was relatively minor, including broken windows and tiles blown off their roofs.
The small crater, which was about three feet in diameter, was located in the parking lot between two grassy areas where civilians were seeking shelter. Experts disagreed on the significance of the pattern of fragmentation in the ground caused by the explosion.
Parts of a metal and concrete fence near the crater were broken and bent, and nearby trees appeared to have been scorched.
Analysis of Other Videos
The Israeli and American governments, along with some media outlets, cited a video filmed and broadcast by Al Jazeera on the night of the explosion that initially appeared to show a potential rocket flying near the hospital and exploding in the air seconds before the hospital explosion. The Israeli military referenced the video in multiple interviews. U.S. intelligence officials stated that their analysts also relied on that video.
However, after analyzing several videos, the newspaper discovered that the projectile referred to in the video was actually launched from a point inside Israel near a potential location of an Iron Dome air defense battery, and experts claimed it was likely an Iron Dome interceptor unrelated to the hospital explosion.
Experts’ Analysis of the Videos
Video filmed from a suburb of Tel Aviv showed the rocket rising away to the east, as did video filmed from the rooftop of a building in Gaza City. The newspaper used these two videos to determine the probable launch point of the projectile to a point about a mile inside Israeli territory and approximately 3.5 miles east of the hospital.
All five experts agreed that there was no evidence linking the potential interception to the hospital explosion, and that the two events likely had no connection to each other.
Conclusion
Based on
Based on the visual analysis and available videos, there is indirect evidence suggesting that the explosion at the Al-Ahli hospital may have been caused by a stray rocket fired by a Palestinian armed group. However, there is still a lack of direct evidence to confirm this and rule out the possibility that an unseen rocket struck the hospital from another location. It is difficult to assign responsibility conclusively without direct access to the explosion site.
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